... But outside of being technically correct to call it a merger, what are your thoughts on next steps? This current structure, with all that debt now included as you pointed out, seems to be temporary? I get the current structure...to keep things running status quo for now...but what's next? This announcement seems like DRI got moved to a temporary parking lot under the Apollo umbrella until the next move is made.
I think "temporary parking lot" is a good metaphor. From what I've read about private equity, they are going to sell DRI in a few years in order to realize their profits. I don't expect that Diamond will be broken up and sold in pieces. First, because Diamond's cash flow is tied to its economies of scale. And second, other than Diamond itself, there do not appear to be many buyers out there in the market. Diamond's revenues come from management contracts (40%) and point sales (60%). But the point sales seem to need The Club and The Club needs all the managed resorts. So I don't see a break-up in the future.
Apollo bought the Great Wolf Lodge in May 2012 for $876 million and sold it in May 2015 for $1.35 billion, realizing a $474 million in profit. Although Great Wolf is not a timeshare company, I'm expecting something similar for DRI. My understanding of Diamond is that they have created a successful growth company, but, for reasons I don't fully understand, major segments of the financial sector have reservations. I presume DRI management -- Cloobeck, Palmer, et al. -- and Apollo have a plan to correct this problem. Then, Diamond will be sold as a public company again.
And as to DRI's sales model, with hindsight being 20/20 I wonder if it worked in the short term, but was always going to eventually stall and stagnate longer term? It just never felt sustainable long term to me.
As best I can tell, this is the view of many Wall Street types. Diamond's sole reliance on inventory recovery and the fact that they do not build inventory has been questioned at many investor's presentations over the last year or two. On the other hand, Diamond's strategy of buying access to deeded owners and converting them to points seems to be favorable to Wall Street analysts.
As a relatively newer and smaller timeshare company, what are they really known for? What corporate brand or identity have they created this past 7-8 years? For example, when we hear people talk about great customer service or great properties in the timeshare world do we ever hear DRI mentioned? Ever? Are they even top 5? So what brand have they built that has any staying power with regards to customer loyalty and goodwill? I mean as a boutique company shouldn't they be known for something more than merely some of the highest fees in the industry? At some point that would seem like it would catch up with them.
It might be that the lack of a brand name is hurting Diamond. But from what I've seen in the financial reports, Diamond's sales are doing as well as Marriott or Wyndham. Moreover, companies like The Berkley Group, Westgate, Welk and Bluegreen also don't have a popular brand name. Bluegreen, I think, is struggling, but the other three are still building in new locations. Clearly I don't have a good answer as to whether DRI's current growth model is sustainable, nor what changes they could make so that it becomes sustainable.
I could be wrong and just my opinion, but what limited time I have had to see and learn about the DRI model, it just never seemed viable or investable longer term to me.
I think many on Wall Street agree with you. That is why the stock price has remained low despite strong growth.