Does the Banker know what is in the suitcases?

[MarTN]

On Deal or No Deal, is the banker just going by the odds?

Or does he know what is in the chosen suitcase?
__________________

 

[JoeMid]

It would not be a game if the Banker knew. They state that an independent organization places the amounts in the case. The banker is purely working on mathematical probability.

 

[caribbeansun]

You may notice as more cases are eliminated the offer approaches the mathematically correct probable value ie. with only 2 cases left the offer is $1M (.5*$2M + .5*X) whereas when there are 4 cases left the offer was $407k (.25*$2M + .25*X1 + .25*X2 + .25*X3).

In the first version of the show the probable values approached the mathematically correct figure earlier in each round FWIW.

 

[Nancy]

Who is he

Does anyone know who the banker is?

Nancy

 

[Mosca]

You may notice as more cases are eliminated the offer approaches the mathematically correct probable value ie. with only 2 cases left the offer is $1M (.5*$2M + .5*X) whereas when there are 4 cases left the offer was $407k (.25*$2M + .25*X1 + .25*X2 + .25*X3).

In the first version of the show the probable values approached the mathematically correct figure earlier in each round FWIW.

I didn't do the calculations, but it looked to me like the same general equation is used every time, the sum of the remaining amount divided by the remaining cases plus one (or something like that).

The real challenge, the "game" part, is refusing the offer until it no longer makes sense to do so. For example, from last night's game. If you had $250,000 in your hand, would you risk it for a 1 in 4 chance that you could lose it all in anticipation of a larger sum? I wouldn't. But the woman did. It paid off for her, and the next offer (which she accepted) was $407,000. But she risked $250,000 to gain $157,000. That wasn't a good bet. She won it, but it wasn't a good bet.

Nobody is the banker, in the sense that you are asking the question. It could be a studio page for all that it matters. It could be a computer voice telling Howie the amount.

 

[DrQ]

Nobody is the banker, in the sense that you are asking the question. It could be a studio page for all that it matters. It could be a computer voice telling Howie the amount.

I would really have a good laugh if the turned up the lights on the banker and it was Ben Stein

 

[caribbeansun]

Actually, her mathematically calculated expected outcome says that she made a good bet in that situation since her expected outcome was actually a fair bit more than the offered amount. I believe there were 5 cases left at the $250,000 level which has an expected outcome just over $400,000. At $407,000 there were 4 cases left (don't forget about adding in the one she picked at the beginning) so the expected outcome was now just over $500,000. In fact only when she would have gotten down to 2 cases left and the offer was $1,000,000 would it have been correct to accept the offer.

What you are referring to is the emotional perspective not the math. Having said all that I agree that it would be very difficult to do the right thing and turn away from the money that you can walk away with.

The real challenge, the "game" part, is refusing the offer until it no longer makes sense to do so. For example, from last night's game. If you had $250,000 in your hand, would you risk it for a 1 in 4 chance that you could lose it all in anticipation of a larger sum? I wouldn't. But the woman did. It paid off for her, and the next offer (which she accepted) was $407,000. But she risked $250,000 to gain $157,000. That wasn't a good bet. She won it, but it wasn't a good bet.

 

[Clemson Fan]

It would not be a game if the Banker knew. They state that an independent organization places the amounts in the case. The banker is purely working on mathematical probability.

Actually, it makes no difference if the banker knows or not because it's all dependent on which case the contestant chooses.