I've bought 4 timeshares, 3 of them resale.
I bought DVC Poly developer points. I own a 168 point contract that is also a Fall fixed week Lake View.
I also own Beach Club Villa (BCV), which I bought resale for $84/point, which incidentally, was also its original price per point when new in 2002. If you bought BCV new for $84/point in 2002, you can sell that now, 14 yrs later, for $115/point, the current going rate on the resale market. At BCV, those 150 points in 2002 cost $12,600 and could be sold today for $17,250.
All the near park resorts, and there are five, Poly, Grand Flo, Bay Lake Tower near MK and BCV and BWV near EPCOT appear to be in the same boat. If resale value holds its own over time, then the author's calculations of breakeven are seriously off:
In his example, break even is at year 13 where renting costs $50,000 and DVC costs 47K. Left off the equation is that the underlying DVC contract in 13 years will quite likely be still worth very near (and possibly more) than the buy in. In 13 years, that Poly contract will still have 38 years of ownership left and if the buyer cashed out then, they would recoup more than half of their total cost of ownership making the comparison 50K vs 23k for DVC.
Only once you consider the time value of money (something he didn't do) would the author's calculations begin to make sense. Even then, in the out years, value, realized by sale or continued ownership, again shifts to the advantage of the buyer.
DVC holds it value, especially the near park resorts but all of them to most extents.
I bought Poly eyes wide open. I knew what I was getting, and there is no equivalent on the resale market.
I do not have DVC points. I thought that the DVC points were available for a set number of years and not deeded. If so, why would the value increase for a lesser number of years?