Two contrarian points to your statements which I am not sure I understand. First worldmark does not do as well as Wyndham in sales according to the few sales reps I have spoken with. I would not compare the bulky Wyndham product to worldmark in a different tier. Second you didn't offer what would be Wyndham's pitch to VIP upgrade sales if they took away point discounts. VIP is their poster. They tell every owner 'this is where you want to be'. It is the fully loaded lexus, though most buy the lower model - it is the one that catches every eye and for which they base all comparisons to. I do not think anyone cares enough about status to spend 100k with a timeshare company and without the VIP point discounts they have nothing of value in VIP and I simply do not see another upside. Look - no one strives to be a million miler just for the cool colored card. They want the ability to get on the plane first, get discount booking points and free upgrades. Sound familiar? Heck I would just rent the points AND it would send aftermarket points prices WAY UP as the only downside is no VIP. Who would ever again buy developer points?
Ron you're a great guy and I might agree with your inclination that Wyndham could void themselves of the c/b issue if someone could point out to me a benefit that would be used as the replacement lead selling point to upgrades. To state that people will spend hundreds of thousands for 'status' is wrong and there is absolutely no proof of this in any other model. In every VIP instance, there are significant benefits that can be applied to the value. That might well apply to reserve where the units are better but in EVERY sales pitch I have been to, every video, every update VIP and discounts has been the leading push. All those 250,000 contracts are simply the price of admission on the way to a life time of upgrade pitches about how much better life is as a vip with point discounts.
Also, let us all not forget the impact of removing or changing the VIP program rules. Wyndham has the ability to change anything in VIP at any time with no remuneration. This we can agree on but I also hope that we can agree that for every action comes an equal and opposite reaction. So Wyndham has to calculate that cost against the other. Do they lose mega renters? Do they lose potential sales to new owners from said mega renters who send in fresh meat? Can they quickly resale 1 billion points if they make the market untenable for businesses? Are those points held in names or llc's (Wyndham allowed this several years back. I know mine are how many others are? Are they paid for free and clear? Who's going to replace the MF on 1 billion or more points?
Many have stated that Wyndham will just expand into the rental market while I agree, I think they want both. Wyndham wants 100% occupancy at every resort all the time. It is the mechanism which feeds leads into the sales system. What they don't want is the overhead attached to that. Mega-Owners in the rental market are providing Wyndham a very valuable service - putting sales leads in the system while also paying MF on their product. IF Wyndham takes this over they may well see an increase in revenue - but an increase in their inventory on their rental channels might also churn prices in those segments. As a corporation they will not engage the Ebay/craigslist/homeaway market as individual sellers do (tell me who is and why they would take on that liability).
Since I have been an owner people have complained about CB - honestly since before I was an owner from my days reading here. CB wasn't removed when folks first started complaining about it and the volume isn't any louder today than it was 4 years ago or longer. The new reservation system that was going to 'put an end to CB' has come and gone and come in many fashions but they larger premise has been to better track points.
Without the 'total overhaul' (which is rumored to have been a failure) they have implemented many changes on the booking system. They have changed the return of points to contracts as opposed to cancelled points. They have been able to alter the return of cancelled units to the system. They have been able to alter inventory and options on a per user basis. They have been able to collect meta-data on owner bookings to feed the aforementioned algorithms.
Wyndham according to the stock price and latest update is doing just fine. There are lots of complaints in their world but I hear nothing about CB being one they want to get into and while it might seem like a simple fix to many - it has serious consequences I cannot imaging Wyndham will ever move into. Ultimately it will come to this for any major corporation - is the risk worth the reward. This would be a VERY risky venture and Wyndham has always played the risk averse angle.
Think about this -- does Delta airlines care that paying passengers are pissed off that they can't get free upgrades, or flight availability because VIP travelers took up inventory with free miles or got to pick the best seats at no additional cost? No they don't but you can bet your bottom dollar that Delta customers get pissed about it. I listened to a guy at the airport waylay a check-in associate about luggage fees after watching two people skip the line of 70 people, to drop off three bags each at no charge after he waiting an hour to pay $200 for his bags. What we are witnessing here is just the cost of doing business.IMHO
If they change it I am gone. It will make my resale worth more since no one will care about VIP status any longer and resales will be the way of the future. I will become a full time customer to many of my friends on here and rent through ebay at already discounted pricing as a result of inventory movements. Everyone likes their timeshare for different reasons. I like mine because I get discounts with 2 million points I give them away to folks to use and bank the rest. I'm not a mega renter, though I have rented.
As I said in another post, you may be right, and as a salesman for the last 60 years Im sure you are, but I also know it doesnt make any difference. The way I see it is that certain of us owners (those of us that have been suspended) have embarrassed Wyndham, and they are going to get their revenge.. That may be petty and vindictive and have consequences that they havent thought of, but Im convinced that its happening. It makes no sense to me either and I hope Im wrong, Im just telling you what i see.
Even now the VIP program is sold by appealing to the prospects emotions, not their intelligence or logic. Even with the discounts buying VIP does not logically make any sense. Its so much cheaper to buy twice as many points on the secondary market. That information and advice is easy to find on the internet. So how do I explain the success of Wyndham sales in the face of that fact?.. They lie and cheat and omit certain important facts in their presentations. and thats going to continue with or without cancel and rebook. Discounts and upgrades will still exist, and the sales force will always be able to uses them to appeal to the prospects greed, and I think hunger for status.
You may be right that Sales needs some tangible benefit to get someone to upgrade to VIP, but I dont think so, Remember the folks that upgrade to vip are the same folks that bought developer points to begin with. And that makes no sense either. I mean why would someone spend $20000 to buy 105000 points when they can buy the same thing on the secondary market for next to nothing, I dont know whats in the kool-aid, but these folks drink it. and Im convinced that they will continue to buy
and dont bet against Voyager. Geoff Richards promised it would be ready by May.. Some owners are already using it, looking for bugs
By the way Im not suggesting that Wyndham will do away with Cancel and rebook, I mean it will always be possible to cancel, and it will always be possible to book available inventory. I relly dont think they will attack it directly, rather they will make it so we cant count on it every time, by introducing a wait list, or some random delay between canceling a reservation and seeing it in inventory
heres what I think is a more likely scenario . Enforce the rule that says vip benefits apply only to vip eligible points ie points bought from the developer. That would kill me. I have 1,000,000 vip eligible points but in the same account over 10 million points bought on the secondary market. Now VIP benefits extend to all my points, Change that and im in trouble.
Do this and sales can still tout the cancel and rebook strategy, and points managers can still do their thing with multiple small accounts, but guys like me that wholesale points to the points managers will be brought to our knees (and so will the points managers that depend on our vip eligible points)
You are absolutely right that folks have been complaining about cancel and rebook for a long time, and they havent done anything.. But the recent suspensions mess has brought it front and center> and Wyndham sees it as a problem that they have to fix...(at least thats what I see ) and as you say Wyndhams stock price is doing just fine, I know Club Wyndham is a big part of that, but its just one part of the Wyndham organization. If sales drop a little in Club Wyndham, maybe they can franchise a couple of new Ramada inns to make up the difference. or more likely roll out the 5 year timeshare lease program that I keep hearing about