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Canadian border will remain closed.

rapmarks

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I have to ask. Do you have anti maskers in Canada? Do Canadians say it is no worse than the flu? Do they say it will be over after November 3? Do they say that the deaths are overstated or cause of death misstated? Etc etc etc
 

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I have to ask. Do you have anti maskers in Canada? Do Canadians say it is no worse than the flu? Do they say it will be over after November 3? Do they say that the deaths are overstated or cause of death misstated? Etc etc etc
Yes.

Not sure about "not worse", but the statistics indicate Covid is comparable to flu.
 

CanuckTravlr

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Yes.

Not sure about "not worse", but the statistics indicate Covid is comparable to flu.
Really??? What statistics are you looking at? Could you provide them please, or have you been watching too much cross-border television? :shrug:

To date, in a little over 7 months in Canada, there have been 9,829 deaths due to Covid-19, and we are now hitting the second wave.

Deaths due to the flu in Canada are normally reported as a combined total for both pneumonia and the flu. Perhaps that combined number is what you are referencing. The combined total is about 8,500, but only about 3,500 of those are due to the flu. I would respectfully suggest that Covid-19 and the flu are not really "comparable"!

 

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Really??? What statistics are you looking at? Could you provide them please, or have you been watching too much cross-border television? :shrug:

To date, in a little over 7 months in Canada, there have been 9,829 deaths due to Covid-19, and we are now hitting the second wave.

Deaths due to the flu in Canada are normally reported as a combined total for both pneumonia and the flu. Perhaps that combined number is what you are referencing. The combined total is about 8,500, but only about 3,500 of those are due to the flu. I would respectfully suggest that Covid-19 and the flu are not really "comparable"!

Covid and Plague are not comparable. Covid and Cholera are not comparable. Covid and Ebola are not comparable. Covid and Flu are comparable.
 

Maple_Leaf

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Really??? What statistics are you looking at? Could you provide them please, or have you been watching too much cross-border television? :shrug:
Please, don't blame the Yanks for Canadian lunacy. We can hold our own without American help.

I went back to the 2009-10 H1N1 epidemic in Canada. There were 33,509 cases of H1N1 in that flu season, resulting in 428 deaths for a case fatality rate of about 1%. That's for a flu we knew was bad and we knew was coming since we had seen it appear at the end of the previous flu season.

From John's Hopkins, below is the progression of the case fatality rate for COVID-19 in Canada:
Canada CFR.JPG

To my eyes this shows that COVID-19 went from being an order of magnitude worse than H1N1 to about as bad as H1N1. That's not by magic, we appear to have learned something about how to treat these patients successfully.
 

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Please, don't blame the Yanks for Canadian lunacy. We can hold our own without American help.

I went back to the 2009-10 H1N1 epidemic in Canada. There were 33,509 cases of H1N1 in that flu season, resulting in 428 deaths for a case fatality rate of about 1%. That's for a flu we knew was bad and we knew was coming since we had seen it appear at the end of the previous flu season.

From John's Hopkins, below is the progression of the case fatality rate for COVID-19 in Canada:

To my eyes this shows that COVID-19 went from being an order of magnitude worse than H1N1 to about as bad as H1N1. That's not by magic, we appear to have learned something about how to treat these patients successfully.
There is an old saying, "there's statistics and there's damn statistics". It is always important to make sure the data you are comparing have the same base or parameters. You have taken a chart showing the 30-day average DAILY case fatality rate for Covid-19 over the last 7+ months and then used the most recent average daily fatality rate of about 1% to make your comparison. You have then compared it to the CUMULATIVE case fatality death rate for the H1N1 flu for the entire 2009-2010 season.

They are not comparable figures! While we have gotten better at dealing with respiratory illnesses over the last decade, the chart you are showing only shows the story to-date. We are now hitting a second wave. If hospitals become overwhelmed again, the fatality rate of Covid-19 could easily increase again. But your conclusion is inaccurate, even without that possible occurrence. Here is the correct comparison.

The cumulative figures for Covid-19 in Canada as of today are 209,148 cases resulting in 9,862 deaths, and we are not at the end of the "season" yet. That is a cumulative case fatality rate of 4.72%. The H1N1 flu statistics you quote of 33,509 cases resulting in 428 deaths, is a cumulative case fatality rate of 1.28%. That translates into Covid-19 being worse than the flu by an order of magnitude of 3.7!!
 
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Compare to case fatality rate of Ebola of 25% to 90%. Covid is not Ebola, but is handled like it is.
 

Maple_Leaf

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[QUOTE="CanuckTravlr, post: 2521044, member: 86635"
The cumulative figures for Covid-19 in Canada as of today are 209,148 cases resulting in 9,862 deaths, and we are not at the end of the "season" yet. That is a cumulative case fatality rate of 4.72%. The H1N1 flu statistics you quote of 33,509 cases resulting in 428 deaths, is a cumulative case fatality rate of 1.28%. That translates into Covid-19 being worse than the flu by an order of magnitude of 3.7!!
[/QUOTE]
Not really.

H1N1 was a KNOWN threat in 2009-10. We were prepared for it.

We learned on the job with COVID19. You should look at the CFR for the last 30 days because that indicates our current status using 30 day period to account for the length of the virus lifecycle. You shouldn't include April data because that was a different world of ignorance.
 

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Well, I guess posts #32 and #33 are proof for rapmarks that we have deniers here, too!! If you want to manipulate data to minimize the problem and support your agenda, I can't stop you, but don't try and pretend it is either accurate or honest. I prefer to follow the science.

Ebola? Really? What has that got to do with Canada or Covid-19? We have never had a single case here. Death rates in third-world countries are not comparable for a whole bunch of reasons, mostly due to lack of proper and adequate medical resources to stop it in the first place. Nice try, but just another red herring!!

Glad to hear that neither of you seem to have any concern with almost 10,000 dead Canadians, one of them a friend of mine! That is about the same as all the various flu episodes in the last three years! It isn't just another flu!!!! It would have been much worse if we had not taken the extraordinary measures that we have. If we had been as glib as both of you and reacted like the USA we would now likely have more than 26,000 dead.

My grandfather spent three years in the trenches of Europe in WWI. My father, father-in-law and several uncles spent five years battling on the North Atlantic, on the ground and in the air of Europe in WWII. None of them had any "vacations" nor saw their families and they didn't whine about it. Sorry that your vacation plans have been disrupted. How self-absorbed so many of us have become!

One thing I have learned during this pandemic is that there is no point discussing reasonably with those who have no interest in the "bigger picture" or have hidden agendas. I'm done. :wall: :wave:
 
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Interesting to read the opinions of both sides of this discussion. Including the "red herring" arguments from each prospective. I think is is unreasonable to paint the USA with a broad brush of COVID death and devastation everywhere...just like I do in Ontario where my county has a infection rate of 0.37% while GTA and Ottawa have numbers sky rocketing. Only comparison rally is how draconian or not some states and provinces have reacted. So you can guess that I am not in favor of the shelter in place lock down plan. The devastation this causes is un-measurable, mostly ignored. This does not mean in anyway that I am not concerned about the death rates nor unsympathetic of lost love ones. And never occurred to me that wanting more "normal freedoms" would be somehow offensive to those who served in WWII. My "big picture" just happens to be something different than others. No hidden agenda, on my end.
 

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Interesting to read the opinions of both sides of this discussion. Including the "red herring" arguments from each prospective. I think is is unreasonable to paint the USA with a broad brush of COVID death and devastation everywhere...just like I do in Ontario where my county has a infection rate of 0.37% while GTA and Ottawa have numbers sky rocketing. Only comparison rally is how draconian or not some states and provinces have reacted. So you can guess that I am not in favor of the shelter in place lock down plan. The devastation this causes is un-measurable, mostly ignored. This does not mean in anyway that I am not concerned about the death rates nor unsympathetic of lost love ones. And never occurred to me that wanting more "normal freedoms" would be somehow offensive to those who served in WWII. My "big picture" just happens to be something different than others. No hidden agenda, on my end.
We all "want" more normal freedoms. But I do object when people are presenting data in a less-than-truthful manner to try and minimize the current situation, especially trying to compare it to the flu, or selectively excluding data to make it fit their argument better. As someone trained as an economist, that is a no-no!!

My reference to the two world wars was a comment on the fact that so many people today seem to be whining about being restricted in what they can do for awhile. The concept of self-sacrifice for the greater good of society seems to be lost on them. It all seems to be about "me". During both world wars people had no vacations, were away from their families, suffered rationing and restrictions on movement for several years. There was no video conferencing, phone connections or email.

We have only been at this for about seven months, so I find this type of attitude very disappointing. We are better than this. You talk about freedoms being restricted. The "freedoms" of those who have died are permanently restricted! I would rather give up some of my freedoms in the short term to ensure more people do not have their freedoms taken away forever. You can agree or disagree. You still fortunately have that freedom.

We now at least deal with infections more selectively, because we have better learned to manage and treat Covid-19 until a viable vaccine is available. That's a good thing, IMO, but it is not a justification for returning everything back to a pre-Covid "normal". Based on your comments, I assume your area is relatively open and less restricted, unlike the red zones of the GTA and Ottawa, which are more locked down. But I don't know what county it refers to and the infection rate number by itself is meaningless.

Can I assume that the 0.37% rate is the cumulative positive test (or case) rate? If so, it is less than the provincial average of 0.46%, although that provincial average is obviously skewed by the large populations of the GTA and Ottawa. The case positive rate to-date for the City of Toronto is double that at 0.90%.

That is why it is a red zone and needs tighter restrictions. One size does not fit all, is something we have learned in the last few months. It is also harder to control the spread of the virus in more densely populated areas, like major cities. We see that lesson in places like Toronto, NYC and Europe. It could still be controlled even better, but would likely require draconian controls, closer to what we have seen in places like China, South Korea and Singapore. I'm not sure our society could handle that.
 
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T-Dot-Traveller

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I’d guess it eliminates a large number of day/weekend trips across the border. Most people don’t fly to the outlet malls/casinos....
I have seen people flying by me on the QEW -

some were probably heading to an outlet mall at 135 Kilometres per hour !!
 

Talent312

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There is an old saying, "[T]here's statistics and there's damn statistics."
I concur with your post, but the "saying" to which you refer has been mangled.
It goes: ""There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
-- Popularized in the U.S. by Mark Twain, but attributed to various British sources.
-- Source: Wikipedia

In reviewing the literature, it appears that, of the three, the worst are the statistics
which "experts" can twist to say anything.
-- See: https://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm

What I know is this:
A damn lot of people have become seriously ill and died needlessly - who'd be
relatively healthy+alive - but for the failure of leaders to adequately protect the
populations they supposedly serve... and some here have seen it for themselves.
.
 

CanuckTravlr

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I concur with your post, but the "saying" to which you refer has been mangled.
It goes: ""There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
-- Popularized in the U.S. by Mark Twain, but attributed to various British sources.
-- Source: Wikipedia
Glad you agree. Thanks for your support.

Just for the record, I am certainly familiar with the Mark Twain quote. That is not who I was quoting, but I obviously did not bother to give a formal attribution, so I can understand why you thought that I was. The quote came from one of my quant methods profs. At the very beginning of the course, he was trying to instill in us a respect for any statistics we might develop and use in future.

It was sort of a cautionary "truth in numbers" speech that I have never forgotten. He referred to the well-known Twain comment. However, he made the point that statistics do not have to be grouped with lies and damned lies. He said that too often statistics are used and manipulated, often selectively, to prove someone's preconceived point or assumption. Those are the "damn statistics". He told us to be careful not to fall into that trap.

Statistics are important and useful and can help inform and guide us and understand where we have been, as well as where we might be going. He asked us to always make sure that our statistical analysis is transparent and fully discloses the assumptions made and parameters used. We should also ensure we are comparing "apples to apples", not "apples to oranges". Anyway, the lecture went on in more depth, but the point is that I was impressed by it at the time it and it has helped guide me over the years.

It therefore annoys me when others don't follow that guidance. A pet peeve (and a bit of a rant, I suppose), but thought I should clarify the source and context. Thanks for listening!!
 
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CanuckTravlr

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The government has just extended the ban on large cruise ships in Canadian waters to at least the end of February 2021. So far, unless it is extended further, that does not interfere with the 2021 Alaska and Atlantic Coast/St. Lawrence River cruise seasons.

 

pedro47

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The government has just extended the ban on large cruise ships in Canadian waters to at least the end of February 2021. So far, unless it is extended further, that does not interfere with the 2021 Alaska and Atlantic Coast/St. Lawrence River cruise seasons.

This is an excellent move by the government.
 

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The most recent extension of the U.S.-Canada border closure expires this Friday, November 21. No one expects the border to fully open in two days, but we've heard nothing so far this week. Something must be up!
 

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The most recent extension of the U.S.-Canada border closure expires this Friday, November 21. No one expects the border to fully open in two days, but we've heard nothing so far this week. Something must be up!
Not necessarily. Based on recent months, I doubt we will hear about a decision until Friday (which is the 20th by the way...the 21st is Saturday). With cases raging at peak numbers on both sides of the border, there is little to no justification to choose this time to open the border.

With a winter surge continuing in the northern hemisphere and no likely change in approach at the federal administrative level in the USA before the 20th of January, I suspect the border will remain closed until at least the spring. Even with an early and effective vaccine, it will take several months for it to be able to suppress the virus on a mass scale.
 

moonstone

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The most recent extension of the U.S.-Canada border closure expires this Friday, November 21. No one expects the border to fully open in two days, but we've heard nothing so far this week. Something must be up!
Just saw this; https://globalnews.ca/news/7470456/canada-us-border-closure-extended/

I wouldn't be surprised if it is officially announced tomorrow. I'd put money on it getting extended into January and beyond as well, especially if the numbers in both countries continue to rise as they have been doing lately.


~Diane
 

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It will probably be extended well into the new year. We may see the air exemption closed down after January 20th as well.
 

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Too bad it won’t stop the real snowbirds, those honking pooping geese on my golf course! :)

We send them south for half of the year to poop on your lawns and golf courses to give us some relief for our lawns and golf courses! Plus, it really would mess up the postcard-perfect, pretty, white, pristine snow scenes in the winter!!! :p
 

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Plus, it really would mess up the postcard-perfect, pretty, white, pristine snow scenes in the winter!!! :p
You mean that brown, mushy oatmeal stuff all over our roads?
 
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