2024 MF's Discussion [MERGED / RETITLED]

[Dean]

We were discussing a discount compared to Marriott.com for a lifetime of TS ownership, not compared to an individual 1 week rental.

If the MF + capital cost was only a 20% discount to marriott.com I think that's a terrible deal, because the MVC version is a long term commitment where someone whose interests are at least partially opposed to yours gets to set the future fees. Marriott.com rentals are generally 100% refundable on short notice, and next year you can do it again if you want (or not!).

IMO I don’t think you can look at that option in a vacuum. You have to look at all options. As a rule, a retail comparison for most rental situations is a fools comparison as the only way to judge the value of the options.

 

[bnoble]

But the question isn't "What's the least expensive option for securing a particular week?" The question is "At what point does the MVC point system collapse due to high cost?"

My suspicion is that a typical owner is not considering all possible options, but only the most obvious few. And, as long as they are not losing money vs. those obvious few, they are probably not terribly unhappy.

 

[DRH90277]

But the question isn't "What's the least expensive option for securing a particular week?" The question is "At what point does the MVC point system collapse due to high cost?"

My suspicion is that a typical owner is not considering all possible options, but only the most obvious few. And, as long as they are not losing money vs. those obvious few, they are probably not terribly unhappy.

One cannot ignore competing alternatives which are becoming better known. This will impact the future of the MVC point system model. If I rent one of my legacy weeks, it interrupts the supposed monopoly. The points system must have a healthy stream of deposited weeks from legacy owners.

MVC controls half the game with its actions, good or bad. The consumer controls the other half and attends a presentation and gets the most optimistic view but also hears constant noise from companies advertising to get people out of timeshares. RedWeek is now even advertising on TV to promote timeshare rentals. TV ads were on in California two nights ago. Tug participants are already well into sidestepping the MVC dogma for better results and word gets around.

MVC will not collapse but the market may be changing as evidenced by the perception in the Stock Market. MVC has many revenue streams and might need to adjust their focus.

 

[Superchief]

For those of us who are multiple week owners and use our timeshares as alternatives to 'vacation homes', increasing travel and dining costs are also impacting the future 'affordability' of our timeshare usage. We have recently changed a majority of our trips to drivable locations and multiple weeks. We no longer dine in the restaurants very often, and either carryout or cook our own meals. I hope MVC starts looking at potential cuts in MF's in optional areas like activities and cosmetic improvements. If they returned to the original 'condo like' model, maintenance fees could be greatly reduced. Many of the GM's came from the hotel side of the business and want to make MVC properties more like hotel resorts. I'd prefer reducing many of the frills in order to save 20-30% on MF's. At some point, we will likely have to sell our portfolio.

 

[AlmostRetired]

In sales, it is always easier to sell exiting customers (deeded, enrolled deeded and trust point owners) than finding a new customer. If there is a group of new customers easier to sell to, they are reservation name changes no matter if they are renters or friends/family. This is the whole premise behind the "owners update". This is why I want to focus on the value proposition because it is what this collective group understands to different degrees. For the longest time, the common theme of a sales presentation was points MF will not go up much. So there is a trust issue with anyone who was a told this or is reading that someone else was told this. If they have to rely on sales outside of this collective group, sales growth is in significant trouble.

I think Trust Owners have value proposition erosion. If we go back to tours, cruises and Bonvoy points, anyone using trust points knows they pay above what direct booking costs. I took a paid cruise this past July. Cruise companies know that they can't raise prices to account for inflation. What cruise companies are doing (except Viking) to adjust, is keeping the pricing the same but adding some pay for food items at meals and higher costs at pay for restaurants. Cruising, got 15% more expensive for trust owners in 2024, unless MVCI cuts the number of points to go on a cruise. Tour pricing will likely not go up 15% either so trust cost is also more expensive. Bonvoy, this is a crap exchange so getting worse makes little difference. One last point, there was a point made about comparing pricing for stays to Marriot.com, this collective group above is more likely to compare Trust Point usage to deeded week MF's than to go to marriott.com.

For 2024, my average rental price for points was 63 cents. This was skewed a little by renting points that expire June of 2024 but even without that, the average price was 67 cents. Everyone I purchased points from were enrolled owners but one. Enrolled week owners will have a significant price advantage over Trust Point owners when renting points.

Not today and maybe not tomorrow but at some point soon, I think Marriott will have to come up with a new product with a new or expanded value propositions.

 

[dioxide45]

For those of us who are multiple week owners and use our timeshares as alternatives to 'vacation homes', increasing travel and dining costs are also impacting the future 'affordability' of our timeshare usage. We have recently changed a majority of our trips to drivable locations and multiple weeks. We no longer dine in the restaurants very often, and either carryout or cook our own meals. I hope MVC starts looking at potential cuts in MF's in optional areas like activities and cosmetic improvements. If they returned to the original 'condo like' model, maintenance fees could be greatly reduced. Many of the GM's came from the hotel side of the business and want to make MVC properties more like hotel resorts. I'd prefer reducing many of the frills in order to save 20-30% on MF's. At some point, we will likely have to sell our portfolio.

I really think they need to scrutinize certain projects and activities. When we were at Canyon Villas I noticed they were installing new pathway lighting. Or that is what it looked like. New lighting mounted to a concrete footer. There was existing lighting. I suspect this isn't a cheap endeavor. At Grande Vista they finally built a children's playground. Perhaps this is something that Marriott should have included with the resort when it was built? But yet the owners are paying for it and Marriott gets to happily collect 10% of that with their management fee. Resorts need to start looking at need to have vs nice to have. Spending money is easy when it isn't your own.

 

[DRH90277]

Redweek impacts - I mentioned in my earlier post seeing TV Advertising for rental of timeshare weeks through their service. As I recall, Redweek changed hands and we are seeing some changes like the Verified and Protected, etc. that increases their credibility and influence over the rental transactions. I don't think it would be hard for them to become significant competitors of MVC in terms of vacation placements. It is a different model but gaining access to the exchange function between week owners and their guests is quite interesting. Keep in mind this draws inventory away from that needed to support the points program.

 

[Ddaley]

That is part of the reason that I push buying high value weeks instead of points even if one elects to do an enrollment though boy have those economics changed this year. I think the same has long been true about lower demand seasons or fixed weeks for MVC as well. Bronze and Silver weeks have always been this way and many, if not most, Gold weeks are questionable also. And for some resorts, Gold is likely not reasonable even if 100% free other than some very specific situations where one is using the owned week specifically usually even then only for specialty units like a 3BR or better views. Off season weeks probably should have lower fees to compensate somewhat which a pure points system will generally provide though the resorts still need upkeep so it's be difficult to adjust fees only based on demand. The reality is that for those that are well informed will make out well on the backs of those that make poor choices, don't plan sufficiently, and are not well informed. This is true from a purchase and usage standpoint.

I would underscore how resorts that will all "high value" (i.e. Hawaii) with weeks that are "even higher values (i.e. Christmas and New Years) affects the point system. I am a long time owner of holiday weeks at Waiohai, I purchased prior to the inception of the point system.

I bought into the sales pitch of the last beach resort in Hawaii, no messing with II as I only had to choose between F, S, Su check-in and after capital investment only on onging MF and the differential between Hotel nights vs. MF paid for my capital investment after 10 years, and I could always exchange my holiday week for Maui via II. Most of the sales pitch was accurate and I have no regrets but one aspect that was not true was the ability to trade into Maui. I tried unsuccessfully for two years to trade into Maui during holiday weeks prior to MCVI inception.

I enrolled into points thinking that it would be easier to accomplish reserving Maui- it is not. Why? Many reasons- the differential in points- when trading in II it was an even exchange but Maui has higher point value and then you have to contend with the skimming of points by Marriott. However, the biggest issue is the most of these holiday weeks were never deposited into II or exchanged for points because of the high rental value of these weeks! When you can rent a week for 8-12K why would you deposit it for points? Most obvious are owners who don't recognize the rental value or don't want to be bothered with trying to rent the units- this is a smaller and smaller pool of owners each year. Waiohai has the lowest MF of any of the Hawaii resorts and the differential between MF and what the weeks rent for is ~ 3 to 6 times the MFs.

I simply rent Hawaii weeks and they never go into available pool of units for points. The only real way that I can see for MCVI to correct this is to buy and retain these high value weeks within the trust- but they currently do not have enough of this type of inventory, making it difficult to fulfill the point requests.

Savy customers learn fast to purchase the weeks on the resale market and even more inventory dissappears from the pool- these are post 2010 owners who don't have the opotion to trade for points but most likely don't care! Weeks are taken out of the system by either being owned by post 2010 owners who cannot exhange for points or owners who rent because of the high rental value. This activity diminishes the pool of inventory available to the trust. High value weeks (Holidays, Summer, Special Event) are problematic for the trust at resorts that were predominately sold out prior to the inception of the trust. All owners are competing for these reservations for either use or rental. Anyone owning points is at the mercy of owners exchanging thier weeks for points and fewer in demand weeks are traded for points- they are used or rented. Thus, the problem with getting point reservations where and when you want to go and the disparity between ownership levels.

I understand from many friends and family who own points that it is beyond difficult to book Hawaii Holiday weeks even at Chairmans level. I think that it is going to increasingly more difficult.

Add into the equation that MCVI is not creating new high end resorts but rather investing into "Pulse" options with high maintence costs and in many cases less demand vs. resorts there is a mismatch between reservations point owners want (high demand resort weeks) and inventory and the trust has a beast of a MF proposition on it's hands. This is one of the reasons I never bought points- I rent them from relatives who have excess points that they can't find reservations where they want to go. Win, Win for me as I pay my dues ever year for flexability without committing to the point MF.

MF at resorts with high ownership and owner occupancy will have an easier time of controlling costs. The trust with it's potpurri of properties and management is only an escalating MF proposition.

Thus for me, any additions to my vacation ownership portfolio will be legacy weeks. I know how to use them and they have value greater than the MF- the same cannot be said of trust points. I have found Bonvoy points much more valuable than trust points.

 

[Dean]

I would underscore how resorts that will all "high value" (i.e. Hawaii) with weeks that are "even higher values (i.e. Christmas and New Years) affects the point system. I am a long time owner of holiday weeks at Waiohai, I purchased prior to the inception of the point system.

I bought into the sales pitch of the last beach resort in Hawaii, no messing with II as I only had to choose between F, S, Su check-in and after capital investment only on onging MF and the differential between Hotel nights vs. MF paid for my capital investment after 10 years, and I could always exchange my holiday week for Maui via II. Most of the sales pitch was accurate and I have no regrets but one aspect that was not true was the ability to trade into Maui. I tried unsuccessfully for two years to trade into Maui during holiday weeks prior to MCVI inception.

I enrolled into points thing that this would be easier to accomplish- it is not. Why- because of the high rental value of these weeks! When you can rent a week for 8-12K why would you deposit it for points? Most obvious are owners who don't recognize the rental value or don't want to be bothered with trying to rent the units- this is a smaller and smaller pool of owners each year. Waiohai has the lowest MF of any of the Hawaii resorts and the differential between MF and what the weeks rent for is ~ 3 to 6 times the MFs. Same for Maui.

I simply rent Hawaii weeks and they never go into available pool of units for points. The only real way that I can see for MCVI to correct this is to buy and retain these high value weeks within the trust- but they currently do not have enough of this type of inventory, making it difficult to fulfill the point requests. Savy customers learn fast to purchase the weeks on the resale market and even more inventory dissappears from the pool- these are post 2010 owners who don't have the opotion to trade for points but most likely don't care!

I understand from many friends and family who own points that it is beyond difficult to book Hawaii Holiday weeks even at Chairmans level. I think that it is going to increasingly more difficult.

Add into the equation that MCVI is not creating new high end resorts but rather investing into "Pulse" options that carry very high maintence costs and in many cases less demand vs. resort and the trust has a beast of a MF proposition on it's hands. This is one of the reasons I never bought points- I rent them from relatives who have excess points that they can't find reservations where they want to go. Win, Win for me as I pay my dues ever year for flexability without committing to the point MF.

MF at resorts with high ownership and owner occupancy will have an easier time of controlling costs. The trust with it's potpurri of properties and management is only an escalating MF proposition.

Thus for me any additions to my vacation ownership portfolio will be legacy weeks. I know how to use them and I have found Bonvoy points much more valuable!

I do feel that well chosen legacy weeks have the potential for providing the best value. With MVC I own weeks I use, weeks I only use for points, weeks I sometimes use and sometimes take points and weeks I use for exchanging. Now most of my weeks are enrolled but certainly at a much lower cost than would be required today. From a usage standpoint I use exchanges, owned weeks and points to complement each other. I feel they each have their place but no doubt legacy weeks not enrolled should be the best value for anyone buying in today, assuming they learn and use the system. Those that learn the system and use it to their advantage will make out compared to the rest and that's true with reserving legacy weeks, renting, points, exchanging, etc. Still at the end of the day there has to be a balance between value, simplicity and ease of use. We here on TUG, myself included, tend to nerd out on such matters, and I think that's a good thing up to a point as long as there is perspective.

Even within a season some weeks have a higher value than others at ALL resorts and that's probably more evident for HI than anywhere else. The points system allows for more individualization of demand which might be good or bad depending on specifics.

 

[ski_sierra]

Many interesting and insightful comments. The trust is a zero-sum game, where the losers are people who bought from MVC and don't learn to use the system. A small percentage of TUG-type owners win, but the definite winner year-after-year is MVC. I agree with the OP that it feels like the trust will implode soon, possibly in the next 10 years if this trend of Marriott continuing to increase MF at the rate they are doing it. While some individuals may succeed at finding unicorns, majority of the people report not being able to find desirable reservations, so I feel like there is an overabundance of junk inventory compared to the desirable inventory. When many of the enrolled weeks owners get to an age where they can no longer travel, there is further loss of good quality inventory. The trust system will get a lot worse over time before it gets any better because MVC will continue milking uninformed owners as much as possible (If I had MVC stock, that's what I'd love for them to do). MVC can make it better by removing the junk inventory/resorts, but given their blatant disregard for their customers as seen in the poor reservation system, I remain sceptical that they will do anything to make it better.

My vacation time is too valuable to use it on junk reservations. I can imagine a scenario that many people are like me and they will simply let their points expire because they would rather stay home than go to the desert resorts in the summer, ski resorts in mud season, or east coast properties in hurricane season. Majority of the trust inventory is of this type rather than ski season, Hawaii, or Desert winters type inventory. The rental market for points will collapse as the power users who know how to obtain desirable reservations have the limit of 20k points put on them. Eventually many of these owners will simply give up on their membership and default/deed back.

I love staying at some of the unique and beautiful MVC properties but there is no reason to buy trust points for that. I stay at MVC properties by exchanging my MGC lock off or renting from existing owners. I have never had difficulty finding a points owner to make a reservation for me (I use the TUG wish list as well as the Facebook group). There is always an owner who could not use points due to being too busy at work, deciding to travel to a non-MVC location, birth of a grandchild, health issues, etc. If I was a pre 2010 weeks owner, I'd rent points in and use the system for weeknights in the discount period. But I don't have that option. I'm glad I stopped my MVC journey at 1 resale week that I use for II.

Anyone who is thinking about getting into MVC today, should strongly investigate alternatives like Hyatt, HGVC, WorldMark/Wyndham (presidential units are MVC quality). You can achieve great results at lower purchase and ongoing cost than owning MVC points, and in many cases better depending on where you live. For me, I love the Monterey coast, and MVC has no presence there while WorldMark has a nice property there and Hyatt has an amazing one. Worldmark has a nice property in Sonoma wine country, and Wyndham has a nice one in Napa. MVC has none. Hyatt's Colorado ski locations are far superior to MVC. Hyatt Northstar is far superior to Timber Lodge.

 

[jellen613]

I think the key is travel flexibility. For families with kids in school you are limited to christmas and spring break, Thanksgiving and summer. Most of those tend to be busy travel times and higher cost. I've transitioned to being an empty nester and now can travel whenever I want. I have weeks and points and can leverage my lock offs and II ACs and Getaways to get an awful lot for my annual MF and II commitment. I compare what I get to what it would cost for vacation rentals, hotel stays, Airbnb, etc. I'm way ahead no matter how you cut it. The big problem comes when I don't want to travel as much. At that point I'll sell my portfolio for whatever I can get for it and get out.

I look forward to having that flexibility, and perhaps using my portfolio more to my benefit. I still feel like I am ahead a little bit in that I am able to take some midweek vacation time, my issue is being in healthcare, I can't necessarily plan 10-12 mos in advance. I plan to do the same when I don't want to travel as much, I will sell and get out.

 

[AlmostRetired]

I asked a question about trust point value. After reading some of the replies, I want to grab a pitchfork, a torch and go after Frankenstein (MVCI).

The rental of high value deeded weeks has been going on well before Trust Points. It impacts both DP and II usage, and is complained about by all since social media has been around.. Also, If one doesn’t plan out well in advance of travel, DP, II or reserving a deeded week will all be a challenge. Specific to Hawaii, go to ROFR.Net and look at how much is paid for some of the units. They paid for the right to do what they want. Low value weeks (Silver season) is a challenge to HOA’s also. It is the owner most likely to walk away and stick the HOA with the problem.

The reason I asked my original question is because the last two years I rented a lot of points and I see the value of points based on my current life situation. If the 2024 point increase flows down to rentals, the rental cost to get that value decreases. When it decreases enough, it goes away, hence my question.

 

[TravelJoy]

@dougp26364 you bring up a great point about interest rates.

Higher interest rates also increases the opportunity cost where you can invest in your own "Timeshare CD." With $50k - $120k capital invested in a 5% CD you can simply take the $2500 -$5000+ annual interest and rent timeshares, rent hotels or go on cruises. You are guaranteed (and FDIC insured) to receive a return of principle without losing a penny. Easy exit too. Stop when you want.

This is the math I use at presentations to which they have no answer of course.

 

[kozykritter]

Thanks. Interesting. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I cannot imagine 15-20% as they are talking about with the points system.
That would probably be when we consider selling.

Thanks,
Dee

Two factors they cited in the trust increase are also present in Hilton Head...labor shortage/higher wages and huge increases in property insurance policies due to increasingly severe storms/possibility of deferred maintenance (i.e. climate change if you subscribe to that theory). I follow local news there through Google and there have been many stories on skyrocketing insurance policies across the island (some 300%+). The trust owns weeks from properties across the entire company so the impact of big jumps in cost at some of the coastal properties is offset to a degree by other properties. That's not the case with a single property owners association like Surfwatch which have no other source to counterbalance the increased costs. That said, I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about it now because there's nothing you can do until the maintenance fee actually comes out. At that point you can see the impact and make your plans.

 

[DeeCee]

Thank you. Much appreciated. Not really worried, just annoyed. I will have to do a cost analysis once the MF amount comes in. My husband would probably not sell it, or try to rent it. He loves Surfwatch, moreso than our DVC these days. But, I'm the number cruncher so I will be the one looking into it. We have a 2 bedroom GV gold season, and we usually travel during the Spring break. I will look to see the rental rates and the rack rates, then I'll factor in our purchase price and the MF fees as we've paid them since ownership. That will help me with the cost of owning it.

We do use it every year, can't wait to get back...so, really it's just an annoyance to have to add unexpected increases into cost of ownership.

TIA
Dee

 

[AlmostRetired]

Sorry, do not know how to delete so we have an empty post.

 

[timsi]

I don't believe there has been much value in purchasing trust points. Perhaps I am mistaken, but it seems that the inventory additions are likely skewed toward the low season, making them expensive per point. Marriott doesn't have to pay much, if anything, for these units, and they don't have a financial incentive to retain them for their own rentals since they aren't profitable. Not surprising at all that Marriott does not make public the detailed composition of the trust (per seasons). The value appears to be declining further with the recent 15% increase. Additionally, I'm uncertain if hotel prices will continue to remain high. I've noticed an increasing number of deals on Travelzoo, including offers for high-end hotels and resorts. We may routinely compare timeshare rental costs per week with hotel rates that may not necessarily reflect real-world rates.

 

[jwalk03]

I just got the proposed budget for Willow Ridge in the mail today. A 10.3% increase to $1666.30.

Board meeting to review is 9/26 at 830am CDT

 

[pedro47]

Getaways for some Marriotts resorts have also increased 20% for a seven (7) nights stay.

 

[daviator]

This is why a lot of the commercials I get in my car (Sirius/XM) are for timeshare exit companies.

I always wondered if those ads are targeted at me because they actually know we own timeshares, or if so many people got burnt that it's worth it to just broadcast to all radio listeners...

Sirius XM has commercials? I thought that was sort of the point, no commercials. I’ve never heard a commercial on SXM but I probably listen to different channels than you do.

 

[jwalk03]

Sirius XM has commercials? I thought that was sort of the point, no commercials. I’ve never heard a commercial on SXM but I probably listen to different channels than you do.

The news, talk & sports channels have commercials. It’s only the music channels that are commercial free.

 

[dioxide45]

The news, talk & sports channels have commercials. It’s only the music channels that are commercial free.

Talk radio also has a lot of “inserted” ads. Meaning the radio host is pushing some company, just like Dave Ramsey did.

 

[DanCali]

Sirius XM has commercials? I thought that was sort of the point, no commercials. I’ve never heard a commercial on SXM but I probably listen to different channels than you do.

If you're listening to any channel that is from a tv broadcast (CNBC/CNN/Fox Business/Fox News/MSNBC/ etc or any live sports) they have to get you to listen to something during tv commercial breaks. The tv ads are not always geared towards radio, and those advertisers probably don't pay to reach the radio audiences. And, based on what others have said, talk radio does it too.

Sirius/XM know quite a bit about demographics - at the very least my zip code and what car I drive and what channels I listen to, but I'm sure they know a lot more (maybe they even buy the demographic and credit report info from the dealer who sold me the car)... Moreover, given that their satellites can probably pinpoint my location, what can they infer if someone drives their car to Orlando multiple times and always parks at Marriott Vacation Club or DVC locations? Or what can they infer about the number of kids someone has and their ages if that person is systematically driving to a preschool and a middle school? Or if they often go to Whole Foods locations vs. Publix vs. Wal Mart? It would be a great selling point for them, and much more profitable for their ad business if their ads can be targeted and broadcast to different segments - and I get so many of these timeshare exit ads, it's ridiculous. Sending those ads to a 20-year-old driver would be pointless.

In fact, advertising is very significant for them - looks like they're on track to make close to $2B this year in ad revenue (~20% of total revenues)...

 

[jwalk03]

If you're listening to any channel that is from a tv boardcast (CNBC/CNN/Fox Business/Fox News/MSNBC/ etc or any live sports) they have to get you to listen to something during tv commercial breaks.
The tv ads are not always geared towards radio, and those advertisers probably don't pay to reach the radio audiences.

Sirius/XM know quite a bit about demographics - at the very least my zip code and what car I drive, but I'm sure they know a lot more (maybe they even buy the demographic and credit report info from the dealer who sold me the car)... Moreover, given that their satellites can probably pinpoint my location, what can they infer if someone drives their car to Orlando multiple times and always parks at Marriott Vacation Club or DVC locations? It would be a great selling point for them if their ads can be targeted and broadcast to different segments - and I get so many of these timeshare exit ads, it's ridiculous. Sending those ads to a 20-year-old driver would be pointless.

In fact, advertising is very significant for them - looks like they're on track to make close to $2B this year in ad revenue (~20% of total revenues)...

View attachment 81690

The demographics of people that are willing to pay for satellite radio are coveted by advertisers as well.

 

[LUVourMarriotts]

Sirius/XM know quite a bit about demographics - at the very least my zip code and what car I drive, but I'm sure they know a lot more (maybe they even buy the demographic and credit report info from the dealer who sold me the car)... Moreover, given that their satellites can probably pinpoint my location...

Hmmm. I still receive advertisements, daily, about Adams Fairacre Farms. It's a small family grocery chain in the Hudson Valley NY area, where I used to live. We moved to NC 8 years ago, and I'm on 4 different cars since then, but still get those advertisements. My account is fully updated. They must really want me to go to Adams.