Many interesting and insightful comments. The trust is a zero-sum game, where the losers are people who bought from MVC and don't learn to use the system. A small percentage of TUG-type owners win, but the definite winner year-after-year is MVC. I agree with the OP that it feels like the trust will implode soon, possibly in the next 10 years if this trend of Marriott continuing to increase MF at the rate they are doing it. While some individuals may succeed at finding unicorns, majority of the people report not being able to find desirable reservations, so I feel like there is an overabundance of junk inventory compared to the desirable inventory. When many of the enrolled weeks owners get to an age where they can no longer travel, there is further loss of good quality inventory. The trust system will get a lot worse over time before it gets any better because MVC will continue milking uninformed owners as much as possible (If I had MVC stock, that's what I'd love for them to do). MVC can make it better by removing the junk inventory/resorts, but given their blatant disregard for their customers as seen in the poor reservation system, I remain sceptical that they will do anything to make it better.
My vacation time is too valuable to use it on junk reservations. I can imagine a scenario that many people are like me and they will simply let their points expire because they would rather stay home than go to the desert resorts in the summer, ski resorts in mud season, or east coast properties in hurricane season. Majority of the trust inventory is of this type rather than ski season, Hawaii, or Desert winters type inventory. The rental market for points will collapse as the power users who know how to obtain desirable reservations have the limit of 20k points put on them. Eventually many of these owners will simply give up on their membership and default/deed back.
I love staying at some of the unique and beautiful MVC properties but there is no reason to buy trust points for that. I stay at MVC properties by exchanging my MGC lock off or renting from existing owners. I have never had difficulty finding a points owner to make a reservation for me (I use the TUG wish list as well as the Facebook group). There is always an owner who could not use points due to being too busy at work, deciding to travel to a non-MVC location, birth of a grandchild, health issues, etc. If I was a pre 2010 weeks owner, I'd rent points in and use the system for weeknights in the discount period. But I don't have that option. I'm glad I stopped my MVC journey at 1 resale week that I use for II.
Anyone who is thinking about getting into MVC today, should strongly investigate alternatives like Hyatt, HGVC, WorldMark/Wyndham (presidential units are MVC quality). You can achieve great results at lower purchase and ongoing cost than owning MVC points, and in many cases better depending on where you live. For me, I love the Monterey coast, and MVC has no presence there while WorldMark has a nice property there and Hyatt has an amazing one. Worldmark has a nice property in Sonoma wine country, and Wyndham has a nice one in Napa. MVC has none. Hyatt's Colorado ski locations are far superior to MVC. Hyatt Northstar is far superior to Timber Lodge.