[2014] Most plausible explanation of mystery of Malasyian Flight 370

[SMHarman]

But, if the news reports are accurate, a big if, the plane didn't just fly on in the direction it was pointed. According to the radar tracking it was navigated along at least two set navigation waypoints.

I Believe this is now the third time I have made this point in response to why this theory has problems. This is why I keep saying that any plausible theory can't ignore ignore inconvenient information.

If the plane was on autopilot it doesn't just fly straight, does it? It can fly on a predetermine flight path, no?

It can, but the rest of that flight path must also be programmed. The plane left ground with a flight path programmed for China from the filed flight plan.

We know a new turn was programmed into the FMS but not if more that that turn was programmed.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

It can, but the rest of that flight path must also be programmed. The plane left ground with a flight path programmed for China from the filed flight plan.

We know a new turn was programmed into the FMS but not if more that that turn was programmed.

Which is the problem with the distress theory of the OP. If the scenario was the emergency scenario as described, the pilot would have needed to turn off the autopilot so that he could set the straightest course for the emergency landing he would have been anticipating. He wouldn't have put it on autopilot, nor would he have flown it the way it was apparently flown if he were trying for an emergency landing.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Side note, I didn't know it was possible to override the O2 masks from deploying from overheads with loss of cabin pressure, but I defer to this pilot.

I was in a class this afternoon with a recently retired Boeing engineer, where we were discussing the plane. When this question came up, he said the oxygen bags deploy automatically, and they continue operating until the pilot turns them off. So it's totally plausible for the pilot to take the plane to a high altitude, depressurize the plane causing the oxygen masks to drop, then turn off the oxygen system in the cabin to kill or incapacitate passengers and crew.

 

[pedro47]

During the war in Vietnam, the USA built a lot of runways that are now abandoned over Southeast Asia.

 

[Patri]

In about 2 1/2 weeks, the batteries in the ELT will be depleted and no longer pinging. The search will be suspended and the news will be below the fold on about section F of the newspapers.

A pilot on the news said it will beep, at a slower pace, for many years. It will be heard and the plane will be found.
People will care about this for a long time. They still care about Amelia Earhart, for pete's sake. Just because the story is farther back in the paper does not mean it is not important.

 

[Sandy VDH]

I just got back from the Maldives. So I had been reading up and I just checked a website, and found the following article. No mention of this in all the current press coverage. Interesting.....

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ng-low-flying-aircraft-on-day-mh370-disappear

 

[Clemson Fan]

But, if the news reports are accurate, a big if, the plane didn't just fly on in the direction it was pointed. According to the radar tracking it was navigated along at least two set navigation waypoints.

I believe this is now the third time I have made this point in response to why this theory has problems. This is why I keep saying that any plausible theory can't ignore ignore inconvenient information.

Can you provide a reference article for this information? I don't think I've read about this aspect of the reported evidence and I would like to.

I'm not saying that Mr. Goodfellow's theory is completely accurate, but it's still IMO the most plausible explanation I've heard of to date. I just have many more problems buying the other major theories. For example:

1. Pilot suicide. This one I can actually buy except for the fact the plane flew on for 7 hours in complete silence. What was he doing for those 7 hours? Reminiscing about his miserable life? Why not just dive the plane into the ocean or go out with a bang ala 9/11 style and send the plane into a government building? Unless of course he just botched it and ended up asphyxiating himself while asphyxiating all the passengers. Regardless, it would be very highly unusual suicide.

2. Hijacking. Why no demands or claims of the hijacking? Isn't that the whole point of a hijacking? Also, I think it would be impossible to keep over 200 passengers completely silent especially since the plane flew back over Malaysia. I would think some passengers would be able to get a message out? Maybe they killed all the passengers, but why would you kill your hostages that can be used as bargaining chips? There are just too many implausible questions for me to buy this one.

3. Terrorism. Why no claims by anybody? Why didn't they use the plane as a weapon? Why fly in silence for 7 hours? Again, I'm not buying this one.

4. Meteor. Come on now!

5. Crash landing on Gilligan's Island or the magical Lost Island. Sure, why not!

I'm actually anti conspiracy theory by nature which is probably why I still think Mr. Goodfellow's theory is probably in the end going to be the closest to the truth. Until that plane is found this is going to turn into a field day of conspiracy theories like the moon landings being faked or the 9/11 truthers, etc.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Think it was this episode.

Episode Detail: Unconscious Pilot - Air Emergency

An examination of Helios Airways Flight 522, which crashed into a mountain outside Athens on Aug. 14, 2005, killing all passengers and crew.

*******************************************
Okay, yes that was it. Just found it on wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

"...Two F-16 fighter aircraft from the Hellenic Air Force 111th Combat Wing were scrambled from Nea Anchialos Air Base to establish visual contact.They intercepted the passenger jet at 11:24 and observed that the first officer was slumped motionless at the controls and the captain's seat was empty. They also reported that oxygen masks were dangling in the passenger cabin."

The golfer Payne Stewart died this way as well.

 

[DeniseM]

Also, I think it would be impossible to keep over 200 passengers completely silent especially since the plane flew back over Malaysia.

This has been widely discussed in the news: Apparently it is cheap and easy to buy electronic equipment that blocks cell phones, and other communication devices.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Can you provide a reference article for this information? I don't think I've read about this aspect of the reported evidence and I would like to.

Malaysia Airlines: Suspicions of 'foul play' as radar shows plane being 'deliberately flown' West

The fact that the aircraft – if it was MH370 – had lost contact with air traffic control and was invisible to civilian radar suggested someone aboard had turned its communication systems off, the first two sources said.

They also gave new details on the direction in which the unidentified aircraft was heading – following aviation corridors identified on maps used by pilots as N571 and P628. These routes are taken by commercial planes flying from Southeast Asia to the Middle East or Europe and can be found in public documents issued by regional aviation authorities.

In a far more detailed description of the military radar plotting than has been publicly revealed, the first two sources said the last confirmed position of MH370 was at 35,000 feet about 90 miles (144km) off the east coast of Malaysia, heading towards Vietnam, near a navigational waypoint called "Igari". The time was 1:21am.

The military track suggests it then turned sharply westwards, heading towards a waypoint called "Vampi", northeast of Indonesia's Aceh province and a navigational point used for planes following route N571 to the Middle East.
From there, the plot indicates the plane flew towards a waypoint called "Gival", south of the Thai island of Phuket, and was last plotted heading northwest towards another waypoint called "Igrex", on route P628 that would take it over the Andaman Islands and which carriers use to fly towards Europe.

Doesn't seem to me be the path that an airplane would take if it were trying to make an emergency landing.

 

[Clemson Fan]

I won't start a new thread but imo, this is the most plausible theory. http://marklberry.com/2014/03/16/high-alert-mh370-found/
================================


This theory is closest to mine. Awacs will pick up the aircraft if it goes airborne, but what would be the instructions to fighters if radio messages from the jet suggested "we have over 200 hostages onboard this aircraft, and our demands are...."

Although the truth is there are no passengers on board.

I too, hope I'm wrong.

Side note, I didn't know it was possible to override the O2 masks from deploying from overheads with loss of cabin pressure, but I defer to this pilot.

Interesting theory which I agree should be investigated.

However, he does make some statements of fact in the piece that have in no way been proven. Here's an excerpt:

"I wouldn’t have thought that a widebody aircraft could fly up to seven hours undetected by radar or satellites, but now it appears that it has—at least as much as any government is admitting. There wasn’t a system malfunction on the Boeing 777 that prevented communication, or we’d know that by now. I don’t think there was a mid-air explosion or ditching or crash, or we’d know that by now too. Even the Malaysian government has finally admitted that this was a case of foul play—a hijacking."

How would we know there wasn't a system malfunction to prevent communication? We don't even know where the plane is? So, how could we possible know a fine detail like that?

How would we know there wasn't a ditching or a crash? The southern Indian Ocean is an awfully expansive area.

Has the Malaysian government admitted this was a case of foul play-a hijacking? I don't think so. They've admitted that the change of course was a deliberate act and they are investigating all possibilities including a hijacking like they should, but I don't think they've firmly identified the motive (emergency or nefarious) behind the deliberate change of course.

I would like to know what this authors opinion is on TWA 800 since he had a fiancé on that flight? The official cause of that crash is a spark causing an explosion in the center fuel tank. However, there are many people, and there was a recent movie about it, that believe that story was a cover-up and that plane was taken down by a wayward Navy missile. I'm curious to know where he falls on that one?

 

[tompalm]

I won't start a new thread but imo, this is the most plausible theory. http://marklberry.com/2014/03/16/high-alert-mh370-found/
================================

Side note, I didn't know it was possible to override the O2 masks from deploying from overheads with loss of cabin pressure, but I defer to this pilot.

Mark L Berry nailed it and that has been my opinion from Day 2 when they didn't find any wreckage. If you didn't read the article, here is a recap in one sentence:

"There as a Boeing 777 at large, and very possibly it is in flyable condition and in the hands of terrorists.

Too much evidence supports the aircraft was hijacked by someone on-board or by one of the pilots with the help of someone on board. The people that did this were very smart, had a plan and capable of landing this aircraft. Maybe they didn't make it to an airfield and crash in the Indian Ocean, but the odds are high that they landed somewhere.

One thing about the passenger O-2 is that it is designed to last about 10 minutes in case there is a rapid decompression at high altitude and the pilots need to make an emergency descent. So, even if the O-2 mask deployed, all the pilots had to do is stay above 14,000, or change the pressurization controller to manual mode and set 14,000 for cabin altitude and keep it like that for about 30 minutes and all the passenger would pass out and die. Of course the pilots would need to wear their O-2 mask. I had high hopes that maybe the passengers were still alive, but as time goes on, it seems less likely.

The real question right now should be "what is planned for the use of that aircraft and who is behind it?"

 

[tompalm]

I was in a class this afternoon with a recently retired Boeing engineer, where we were discussing the plane. When this question came up, he said the oxygen bags deploy automatically, and they continue operating until the pilot turns them off. So it's totally plausible for the pilot to take the plane to a high altitude, depressurize the plane causing the oxygen masks to drop, then turn off the oxygen system in the cabin to kill or incapacitate passengers and crew.

That is probably true in some aircraft. The new 737-800 NG or next generation that were being built by Boeing last year were designed to make Oxygen for about 10 minutes. After that, the passengers do not have oxygen even if they are wearing a mask. In my post above I stated 10 minutes. I am not sure how the 777 works, but would think Boeing keeps it standard.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Mark L Berry nailed it and that has been my opinion from Day 2 when they didn't find any wreckage. If you didn't read the article, here is a recap in one sentence:

"There as a Boeing 777 at large, and very possibly it is in flyable condition and in the hands of terrorists.

Too much evidence supports the aircraft was hijacked by someone on-board or by one of the pilots with the help of someone on board. The people that did this were very smart, had a plan and capable of landing this aircraft. Maybe they didn't make it to an airfield and crash in the Indian Ocean, but the odds are high that they landed somewhere.

That's been my suspicion as well. I discounted it at first because I had a hard time believing that someone could have flown the plane over land without the plane being detected on primary radar. However, it now appears that at least two countries, in fact, did pick up the plane on primary radar and ignored the signal. That laxity makes it much more likely that the plane could have been successfully flown to a suitable remote landing strip where it could then be quickly hidden.

That would serve to limit the number of locations to check, because it has to be landing strip that has to be long enough for a plane of that size to take off, carrying a load of fuel large enough to get it to a destination, and in sufficiently decent condition for takeoff and landing of a large jet.

 

[Phydeaux]

Mark L Berry nailed it and that has been my opinion from Day 2 when they didn't find any wreckage. If you didn't read the article, here is a recap in one sentence:

"There as a Boeing 777 at large, and very possibly it is in flyable condition and in the hands of terrorists.

Too much evidence supports the aircraft was hijacked by someone on-board or by one of the pilots with the help of someone on board. The people that did this were very smart, had a plan and capable of landing this aircraft. Maybe they didn't make it to an airfield and crash in the Indian Ocean, but the odds are high that they landed somewhere.

One thing about the passenger O-2 is that it is designed to last about 10 minutes in case there is a rapid decompression at high altitude and the pilots need to make an emergency descent. So, even if the O-2 mask deployed, all the pilots had to do is stay above 14,000, or change the pressurization controller to manual mode and set 14,000 for cabin altitude and keep it like that for about 30 minutes and all the passenger would pass out and die. Of course the pilots would need to wear their O-2 mask. I had high hopes that maybe the passengers were still alive, but as time goes on, it seems less likely.

The real question right now should be "what is planned for the use of that aircraft and who is behind it?"

Agreed, and no ping. And with each passing day, this theory becomes more and more likely. Now we learn the turn was initiated before the "good night message", made by the copilot.. So, you other folks still think there was a fire huh?

 

[Tia]

Very interesting!! Yes why is this not mentioned in our news coverage??

I just got back from the Maldives. So I had been reading up and I just checked a website, and found the following article. No mention of this in all the current press coverage. Interesting.....

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ng-low-flying-aircraft-on-day-mh370-disappear

 

[CarolF]

You mean to tell me that a reporter actually wrote the inference that, "the course change into the flight computer was not executed manually by one of the pilots at the controls."?

Man, that would be some horrible reporting!

I personally liked

ANDREW HERDMAN (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines' Director General Andrew Herdman) - That would be very helpful in terms of focusing the search effort because at the moment you're looking for a needle in a football field, as someone in the American military said, or a needle in Texas, if you take the current zone.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s3965602.htm

A shortage of needles in Texas, who knew?

 

[CarolF]

Very interesting!! Yes why is this not mentioned in our news coverage??

So many false reports I expect.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-19/malaysia/5332052

You may also have missed the oil rig worker who saw it in flames near Vietnam.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/12/oil-rig-worker-says-he-saw-missing-plane-go-down-r/

 

[Phydeaux]

Here's another prediction - a number of folks that have posted their theories on this thread are going to be dropping off the thread.

Alternatively, if my theory was incorrect, I'll be back here to admit I was incorrect.

 

[Patri]

If it is on some remote airstrip, what do you think they would do with the bodies?

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

If it is on some remote airstrip, what do you think they would do with the bodies?

What would you do if you were in full command at some remote location and you were suddenly responsible for dealing with 200 corpses?

 

[Phydeaux]

Released today: "...On Tuesday, former FAA spokesman Scott Brenner said that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was already 12 minutes into its diverted course when the plane's co-pilot calmly told air traffic controllers that things were "all right."

"One of the pilots clearly had the intention ... that he was going to take (the plane) in a different direction," Brenner told host Megyn Kelly on "The Kelly File." "It's 100 percent clear this pilot, or this co-pilot, was going to take this plane with the intent of doing something bad."

Brenner also believes it's likely that co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid and Shah were both involved in the decision to change the flight's course.

"For a pilot or a co-pilot to punch in a new waypoint in their flight management system without the other one noticing would be hard to do," he said.

=======================

Sticking with my original theory, post #5

 

[ace2000]

Sticking with my original theory, post #5

And I will be sticking with my post #4 as the root cause.

 

[Passepartout]

If it is on some remote airstrip, what do you think they would do with the bodies?

Well fed sharks?

 

[Phydeaux]

Well fed sharks?

Changing your theory Jim?