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  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!
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2009 R.I.P. and those Dead Cat Bounces...

I am a relative newbie to timeshares. I only own one timeshare, and I have probably a stupid question for the experts here. I have also considered getting into the inexpensive timeshares that are basically free (save for the maintenance fees) like Denise bought.

But I always wonder, is there a real risk that if the timeshare market crashes further, and more and more timeshare owners become delinquent on their accounts, that I might end up being stuck paying more and more money beyond the maintenance fees, (or else maybe be stuck paying much higher maintenance fees), to make up for the delinquencies and the poor market for timeshares, so that I end up wishing I never bought the "free" timeshare at all? I mean in that situation, if I can't find another buyer, I can't just renounce my timeshare ownership and walk away right? Or is that situation so unlikely its not worth worrying about?

Your fears are well founded - look for timeshare owners to make the hard decision of paying the timeshare MF or paying the mortgage. Delinquency rates could soar to all time records (I'd bet on that) and the existing owners will have to pay for the folks who just walk away.

So that $1 eBay timeshare might get your adrenaline pumping but my fear is that insolvency of small timeshare resorts might just become the new topic here.
 
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10 Commandments + 1

1.If prices drop while we are ROFR'ing, you must continue to believe that ROFR keeps resale prices high (disregard the facts).
2.If prices CONTINUE to fall after ROFR ceases, that will be proof positive that prices fall when there is no ROFR. (All of our faithfull must ignore the fact that prices fell while we ROFR'd, but instead you must focus exclusivelly on any price drops since ROFR stopped).
3. ROFR props up your resale prices. We have no proof that it actually props up prices, you will simply have to trust us because no timeshare salesman or developer would tell you anything that wasn't true.
4.Once ROFR is stopped, prices can't rise until Marriott starts ROFR'ing again!
5.If prices begin to rise due to a good economy even though ROFR hasn't yet been exercised, ignore the price increases totally as it is an anomally.
6. Even if a situation ever occurs where there are months of increasing resale prices before we ROFR, this fact must be disregarded too.
7. When we do resume exercising ROFR, any subsequent price increases are proof that ROFR props up prices.
8. We invented ROFR to help get our customers high resale prices.(You must ignore the fact that when prices dropped to their lowest points ever in 2008 that we stopped ROFR'ing).
9. We will continue to ROFR to make sure that resale prices at our resorts remain high and to set a floor price (oops we quit ROFR'ing so once again just trust us on this and disregard the facts).
10.You must never question whether ROFR helps you or not. Repeat to yourself again and again, "Thank you Marriott for ROFR".
11. Anybody who goes around saying ROFR = ROFL is a major serious doofus.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 
I'm talking about developer prices. As far as I know no major developer has reduced their sales prices. These are not "specials" but everyday developer sales prices.

But I'm just guessing here - I don't keep up with but a few developers.

As I've said elsewhere here when Marriott reduces their normal and customary prices by just 1 penny the timeshare bubble has burst. 2 years after real estate has peaked the timeshare industry seems to be oblivious to the real world.

I think it would be worth keeping a chart of Marriott, Westin, Westgate, Wyndham, WorldMark as to when these major developers start lowering their asking prices. These would be their posted asking prices.

Smaller developers may already have started lowering prices - I don't know.

Once Marriott stopped exercising the ROFR prices started falling - you would expect this if you believe the ROFR was responsible for higher resale prices. If you didn't believe in that concept I guess maybe lower average temperatures around the globe might be the culprit for falling Marriott resale prices - I'm just guessing here.

Well Perry, does Hyatt count as a major developer for your test of determining when the bubble has burst?

In this thread, http://tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=91161

they're talking about a recent price drop by Hyatt for their Siesta Key resort.

Michael
 
Well Perry, does Hyatt count as a major developer for your test of determining when the bubble has burst?

In this thread, http://tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=91161

they're talking about a recent price drop by Hyatt for their Siesta Key resort.

Michael

I picked Marriott because I understand their system and they don't haggle on prices - I don't know about other developers.

But everyone is free to use a benchmark that they feel comfortable with.
 
Hi Perry;

Welcome back. I haven't seen many posts from you lately. I always look forward to hearing what you have to say. I'm glad I took your advice and bought Worldmark. I will be watching for your opinion on when you think the dead cat stops bouncing.

When the fleas clear, do you have any opinion on what resorts might be the best bargains? I don't have a lot time to use, or money to put into another timeshare, but we do love to ski. Something that would trade into top ski in/ ski out resorts would be my goal.

Andy.
 
Hi Perry;

Welcome back. I haven't seen many posts from you lately. I always look forward to hearing what you have to say. I'm glad I took your advice and bought Worldmark. I will be watching for your opinion on when you think the dead cat stops bouncing.

When the fleas clear, do you have any opinion on what resorts might be the best bargains? I don't have a lot time to use, or money to put into another timeshare, but we do love to ski. Something that would trade into top ski in/ ski out resorts would be my goal.

Andy.

My normal advice applies even now - if you plan to actually use the timeshare it makes little difference who you buy it from and when you buy it - if you plan to use it 20+ years. Forget about flipping, renting, exchanging, just using.

I'm watching Zillow for a retracement of 1/2 of what has been lost in real estate before I believe its time to buy timeshare again. Can't tell you when that will happen but I'm guessing 2010 at the earliest.

I don't like what's happening in Washington and believe the pain has just begun - we will look back at today as the "good ol' days".

Until then just rent....
 
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