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[2008] Newport Coast Villas Resale Prices Falling

MOXJO7282

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This Platinum NCV sold on eBay tonight for $17,814!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110338426089

:clap:

This is a total aberration, as 2 others recently sold at $12500 and $13600, and that has been the price point on ebay for some time. The difference with this one is the great 2009 summer week associated with it.

That is the biggest mistake people make when selling a TS, not getting a good week to sell with it. I know I'll pay more, if a good week comes with it. When I purchase resale, I don't even want the week if none is assigned, because one downside of buying resale, is you usually get a bad first year week, because that is all that is left, by time you are the owner and you can request a week yourself.

Taking all of these sales together and I think it does sugest pricing has stabilized because I bought my 3 NCVs for $16k, $14,7K, and $13.7 before the recession exploded and pricing fell to the $12.5-$13.5 range and has since leveled off, so that to me is a good sign.
 

Bill4728

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That is the biggest mistake people make when selling a TS, not getting a good week to sell with it. I know I'll pay more, if a good week comes with it. When I purchase resale, I don't even want the week if none is assigned, because one downside of buying resale, is you usually get a bad first year week, because that is all that is left, by time you are the owner and you can request a week yourself.
Either sell with a good week already reserved or just sell with the note that your use begins the next year. (therefore the buyer would owe no MFs for this year)
 

m61376

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Joe- What I've noticed over the last few weeks is that a month or two ago prices really seem to have plummeted more and that the last several Ebay auctions have a higher price point in general. The 17K is the highest I've noticed, but there have been a few in the 13 and 14K range, which would have been considered high. Obviously, there have been too few sales even on Ebay to characterize this as a trend, but it did hit me as being a bit curious.
 

fraser921

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No one has money and their 401 ks are down 50 %..cash is tight and prices are in a free fall. I dont expect marriot to match anything

This obviouslyis a good time for a buyer with money and patience
 

MOXJO7282

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No one has money and their 401 ks are down 50 %..cash is tight and prices are in a free fall. I dont expect marriot to match anything

This obviouslyis a good time for a buyer with money and patience

What I am seeing is some prime Marriotts aren't in a free fall. I don't expect Marriott to match either.

Let's see what happens now that it appears Monday's business new is really bad.
 

G356

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NCV Platinum prices have risen to 8 to 9K. I think it may be still near the bottom. I know we aren't supposed to look at timeshares as investments but does anyone know of one that actually appreciated? Say it was bought at a resale price of 5K and went up to 10K? Just curious.
 

DanCali

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NCV Platinum prices have risen to 8 to 9K. I think it may be still near the bottom. I know we aren't supposed to look at timeshares as investments but does anyone know of one that actually appreciated? Say it was bought at a resale price of 5K and went up to 10K? Just curious.


I wouldn't count on appreciation but rental prices do provide a floor for the resale value. This is at least how I'd think of it as an "investment":

If you can buy a Platinum week at NCV for $10K (rounding numbers), you can reserve a summer week and rent it out for about $2200. That's a $1200 profit over the maintenance fees (+ taxes) of roughly $1000. So that $1200 profit is a 12% return on your $10K "investment" - that's not bad return these days. That's assuming you can actually reserve a summer week, but I've managed to do it 4 years in a row, pre- and post-DC, so it is doable.

Lower resale prices increase that 12% return so there is a limit to how much prices can go down since people will pay for a 12% return these days. Not to mention that, as recently as May, Marriott was offering owners $7300 for Platinum weeks (technically $6800 after a $500 processing fee) so you'd think a retail buyer would pay more than Marriott...

As for your question if I know of anyone who bought for $5K and it appreciated to $10K - not exactly, but I did buy my Starwood weeks 5 years ago significantly below eBay prices (it was a 5-figure price so it was meaningful) so I could probably still sell them for a profit today. I just got lucky with relatively uninformed or somewhat desperate sellers at the bottom of the recession.
 
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G356

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So if the ROI goes up wouldn't the price also go up? Say you got the week and it rents and gives you a 12% return and two years later rents increase and your return is now $16%...wouldn't prices then follow by rising?
 

MOXJO7282

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From what I can see on ebay over the last year or so and in my experience successfully renting these units since 2008, is resale price all in is somewhere around $8500 and rental profit about $950.

The great thing about NCV is the demand for summer weeks is tremendous so that profit has been very consistent. We were there this past July for the first time and just loved the resort and the area so much its definitely going to be a place we will always own for these reasons.
 

DanCali

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So if the ROI goes up wouldn't the price also go up? Say you got the week and it rents and gives you a 12% return and two years later rents increase and your return is now $16%...wouldn't prices then follow by rising?

If rental prices increase that typically compensates for higher MFs so rental profits don't necessarily go up.

More generally MFs going up is a huge barrier for prices going up, because when MFs are as high as rental prices, a timeshare becomes pretty cheap or worthless on the resale market.

But like Joe said - I have found rental prices to be very consistent (I price on the low end and get 15+ inquiries for each ad, most of which just offer my asking price) and MFs very stable at this resort.
 

camachinist

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IME, having rented NCV consistently in both seasons since 2004, rental prices are pretty flat, meaning they haven't appeared to track inflation/MF's that closely . IOW, looking at past rental receipts, I was renting July/August platinum for 2200-2300 back in 2004 and that's typical, or less, these days.

If anything, Easter/Spring Break weeks have bloomed a bit in rental income and, considering how cheap Gold weeks go for these days, can be a better rental prospect than Platinum, considering rents versus maintenance fees/RE taxes versus prevailing resale pricing.

I recently saw an annual Gold week sell on eBay for 3250 and absolutely zero people were interested in mine on Redweek for 5K when I test-marketed this season earlier this year. 3-4K was the typical offer. At that rate, currently seeing 1600-2000 for Easter weeks, at current MF's, that's a pretty good ROI. Since I bought developer, I'm not interested in selling, though perhaps in buying resale, but it's always nice to see what interest is really out there. Most of it was from brokers, based on the two test marketings I've done over the last couple years.

I recently played chicken with an early September Platinum and couldn't shake it loose for even 1100, so it went to II. First time in a long time I failed to market but, then again, I also failed to secure a good reservation, so the market punished me, correctly. That underscores one factor limiting NCV Platinum resale prices, that being the brutally short desirable Platinum season, versus the deeded season. If anything would depress the prices/limit them from rising, IMO that would be it.
 
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