- Joined
- May 20, 2006
- Messages
- 51,117
- Reaction score
- 22,610
- Location
- NE Florida
- Resorts Owned
-
Marriott Grande Vista
Marriott Harbour Lake
Sheraton Vistana Villages
Club Wyndham CWA
But these all still ignore the supply/demand side of value. A certain timeshare might have usage value to me, but there might be five others for every me that sees no value in it. That then reduces the effective resale value to zero. Why would I pay $500 (my value) for a timeshare when five people are willing to give it away for $0?This is a complicated thing not specific to timeshares. Many ... (not assets but ...) property? things? have near 0 or below 0 sales value, but certainly have a utility value and some have sentimental value.
But lets look at utility - I have a 99% working Singer Quantum Stylist 9600 sewing machine. If it was stolen, it'd cost me something to replace. Alternatives like paying a tailor or seamstress or friend to do basic sewing would also cost me. Doing without and just more frequently buying new clothes has a cost. IDK what an insurance company would rate that loss as, but that might be a useful starting point.
Similarily, I have an old, somewhat broken down but still functional Bosch 800 series dishwasher. Any replacement is going to be a few hundreds of dollars, another Bosch 800 is going to be over $2,000 last I checked. I doubt anyone would buy it off me, but I still use it at least once a day...
Again, I kind of feel like insurance has the closest generic "loss" calculations, but they're not public.
So, there's a value based on what someone would pay you for a thing, there's a value based on alternate solutions, and there's value based on if you can do without entirely. For instance, very few people get any instrumental value from stocks. It doesn't let them run the company, it doesn't get them anything. So the only value is what they can sell it on for. But trying to apply that sort of valuation to other things doesn't work so well IMO - even a second house has a bunch of what I'm calling instrumental value to people - a place to store things, a back up if something happens to your current house, a place you can rent out, etc. Only if you're running a business flipping houses does it make sense to consider like a stock.
So much of this thought process to TS is IMHO a mismatch of analysis. I don't think any vacation is ever generically a revenue generating event for the vacation goer. [Technically if you're making money as a reviewer, influencer, youtuber whatever - then it's no longer a vacation, but a work trip in a sense.]
I'm currently in Vacation Village Weston - what is the value of 75 degree weather for 2 more weeks vs snow and sleet and 20s in upstate NY? Obviously pretty high for me... I'd guess plenty of people would pay *something* to get out of the snow for a while, and that's what all the resorts bank on and are actually selling in some sense.
Various ramblings aside - most people I've talked to (on this forum, but also IRL who aren't into TSs) consider valuing TS as what similar accommodations in a similar location at a similar time of year would cost. I.e. Myrtle Beach area, so Surfside is "close enough", same number of bed rooms, same month of the year. More generically, I guess roughly a 30 mile radius. The other aspect is the exchange membership for the cash stays - Many many people are sold per the forum, but plenty of people IRL are also impressed with the 2nd tier but still nice for quite cheap locations in RCI Extra Vacations / Last Calls. You could pick up a Triennial that has yearly MFs around $250 just to get access to multiple units at Massanutten or Smuggs, or in Florida etc at $600ish a week in a 2BR. The actual unit is never used or thought about, or you do actually plan it every 3 years, but you certainly aren't valuing it highly. IDK what a standalone RCI membership is, but I tend to subtract ~$100 a year from the various costs for HGVC for the included RCI membership.
I don't know how you generalize anything much more specific though - I know nothing about weighted matrixes etc. I think the what should I buy forum threads basically tell you how to value for a specific person, and that's about as good as it gets. It's like valuing a college degree - it depends on you and your goals.