Initial RCI Observations on a Low Value Trader

[MichaelColey]

I recently bought a 3BR lockout at Summer Bay in Orlando, and despite the fact that it's a low value trader, here are some observations I've made about what I can exchange into at RCI:

I split it into 1BR and 2BR units and deposited them separately, as suggested by just about everyone I talked to. The 2BR sees about 5% more inventory than the 1BR.

1) I can trade the 1BR into a 3BR at 195 different resorts worldwide. For comparison purposes, there are 327 resorts with 3BR units available as Extra Vacations and 108 of those are priced $250-$349.

2) I see a lot of good inventory for NEXT MONTH. For instance, almost all of the Hawaii inventory I see is for next month. I see inventory at 9 units (vs. 13 units Extra Vacations ranging from $450 to $2360 and none Last Call). Comparing that inventory, there are 3 that are available for exchange or Extra Vacations ($828, $1422, and $450), 6 that are exchange only, and 10 that are Extra Vacations only.

3) It looks like I can exchange the 1BR (or 2BR) side of my Summer Bay Resort for a 3BR at the same. Lots of weeks are available. (Hmm, I wonder if the 1 in 4 rule still applies since I'm an owner there?) Not that this is necessarily a good deal, as there are 12 resorts with 3+ BR units with Extra Vacations from $297.

I think I'll definitely be able to get good value out of exchanging. (I know I've already got good value out of Extra Vacations.)

 

[rapmarks]

why do you call this a low value trader? I have a two bedroom gold crown, june deposits on a lake and i pull one bedroom and studios in unrated resorts. have never seen a three bedroom resort. when i look in Florida, usually won't see anything after Dec 15 til May. that is a low value trader.

 

[jamstew]

why do you call this a low value trader? I have a two bedroom gold crown, june deposits on a lake and i pull one bedroom and studios in unrated resorts. have never seen a three bedroom resort. when i look in Florida, usually won't see anything after Dec 15 til May. that is a low value trader.

Yep, I've got one of those, too, but a silver crown. The only 2BR I can get are off-season.

 

[MichaelColey]

LOL - I guess it depends on who I talk to. Everyone keeps saying Orlando resorts are poor traders because there is so much inventory and mine saw less than almost everyone else who posted in the recent RCI Trade test.

 

[bankr63]

Overbuilt or heavily built?

LOL - I guess it depends on who I talk to. Everyone keeps saying Orlando resorts are poor traders because there is so much inventory and mine saw less than almost everyone else who posted in the recent RCI Trade test.

What they usually say is that Orlando is overbuilt (lots of stock.) While it is very true that there is lots of stock, I'm still not convinced that Orlando isn't just heavily built (not necessarily OVER built). And THAT doesn't necessarily indicate that all Orlando resorts are poor traders.

Orlando is also one of the best tourism destinations in the US; so as much as there may be huge supply, there is also a relatively heavy and constant demand. Top end resorts like DVC and HGVC are really good traders. The demand for these locations is huge. Some resorts don't fare as well; they were probably valued better before the market built up (demand outstripped supply). But as the market matured, their value returned to something more reasonable. Being a Canadian, I have no problem finding people who will cover my MF's for March break timeshare getaways as soon as I mention Disney/Orlando - so I have no problem finding demand.

I respect what you are trying to do here. EVERYONE who owns a timeshare suspects that they are being undervalued by II or RCI for some reason. Once RCI starts giving a peek (albeit not too far) behind the curtain, perhaps some of the valuation will make more sense. I suspect at that time, this board will be full of indignant posts about why resort W in location X should be worth more than resort Y in location Z. Your Summer Bay is worth more on RCI than some think it should be worth, but RCI doesn't benefit from overvaluing it. If they can't flip it, they don't make money, so they must have a pretty good idea of the value.

So far I'm also happy with the trades I see and book for my Orlando TSs (3 units), and I'm happy with the MF I pay, and that's really all that matters. If I no longer see trades I want, and/or I can no longer rent to friends and acquaintances, and/or I no longer want to ever go back to WDW :ignore: then I guess I'll dump them and try a different approach.

M Ross

 

[RedDogSD]

One thing that you were on to Michael, and it is why I also bought in an overbuilt area is that you can easily get back into your home resort, or home area and increase your unit size.

My Vegas 2 bedroom lockoff is locked off for the best week on the TDI that I could get (weeks 16 and 17), 2011. With those deposits, I can do exactly what I want easily.

I am going to use my Gold Membership to get 2 6 day exchanges, for 2 bedroom units for each side of my lockoff, or 2 7 day exchanges using the XYZ promotion. Since I am going back into Vegas, there is no problem getting what I want. I will actually go to my sister resort Tahiti Village which is nicer than mine, but mine has a $220 lower MF per year. So, for the cost of a few exchange fees, and my very low MF, I will get 4 trips to Vegas from one ownership.

I imagine you could do the same since you love Orlando. Enjoy!!1

 

[LLW]

why do you call this a low value trader? I have a two bedroom gold crown, june deposits on a lake and i pull one bedroom and studios in unrated resorts. have never seen a three bedroom resort. when i look in Florida, usually won't see anything after Dec 15 til May. that is a low value trader.

Can't you see 2BRs and 3BRs for the next 45 days, when supposedly all trade power considerations are off? Especially those that are on Extra Vacations and Last Calls for low rents?

 

[timeos2]

It is heavily built but not truly overbuilt as there is nearly year round demand

What they usually say is that Orlando is overbuilt (lots of stock.) While it is very true that there is lots of stock, I'm still not convinced that Orlando isn't just heavily built (not necessarily OVER built). And THAT doesn't necessarily indicate that all Orlando resorts are poor traders.

Orlando is also one of the best tourism destinations in the US; so as much as there may be huge supply, there is also a relatively heavy and constant demand. Top end resorts like DVC and HGVC are really good traders. The demand for these locations is huge. Some resorts don't fare as well; they were probably valued better before the market built up (demand outstripped supply). But as the market matured, their value returned to something more reasonable. Being a Canadian, I have no problem finding people who will cover my MF's for March break timeshare getaways as soon as I mention Disney/Orlando - so I have no problem finding demand.

Very true. The blanket statement that Orlando resorts aren't good traders simply isn't the case. Like any area there are good & bad resorts and those that are high quality and/or limited in deposits tend to trade very well.

Those that truly are over built supply far too much inventory to the primary exchange company - such as the mega resorts like Wastegate in II, Vistana, Orange Lake, etc that are far too big thus they bury the exchange systems in far too much inventory thus low trade value. As an example the Wastegates that also trade with RCI do MUCH better trades as they get very limited deposits PLUS you get your deeded week rather than the poor value weeks that Wastegate insists on giving II (& that II in typical member negative fashion accepts!) rather than the deeded, fixed week(s) you may own there.

The better quality resorts and/or those that have a relatively low number of deposits can do very well as traders although buying to trade rather than use the majority of the time is still a bad choice at any location in the weeks systems. For the majority of planned usage to be at your resort with just an occasional need to trade out a good resort in Orlando can be an excellent place to own. It can get you the resort you desire in the use times you desire & avoid the hassles and costs of trying to trade in especially in the high demand summer/holiday (no school) times most people really want. While there are OK resorts or often the choice of the mega resorts even those can be tough to get the unit size and exact dates - or you have to settle for the less desirable resorts that really aren't up to the high standards most Orlando resorts are well known for.

If you want to visit Orlando regularly and with a know quality / use period as in most places you have the best access if you own where you want to go.

 

[MichaelColey]

the next 45 days, when supposedly all trade power considerations are off?

Ah, I suspected that something like that was at play, since I could see so much Hawaii inventory in July.

Quick check to see if all trading power considerations are off...

RCI Weeks members, how many total units do you see for July 2010? (Search For a Vacation / Check-In Month July 2010) I see 2225 available units at 512 resorts for either one of my deposits.

(I suspect that some may see more or less due to blocks - for instance, I know I wouldn't be able to see DVC since my units are in Orlando.)

[Moderators: If this type of detail shouldn't be shared outside of the private Sightings forum, feel free to take whatever action you feel is best - deleting, spliting, moving, etc.]

 

[krj9999]

Just to add some perspective, my strong traders see 406 and 402 resorts worldwide, respectively, with 3BR available for exchange. Though I have no idea how many of them I'd be interested in staying at.

1) I can trade the 1BR into a 3BR at 195 different resorts worldwide. For comparison purposes, there are 327 resorts with 3BR units available as Extra Vacations and 108 of those are priced $250-$349.

 

[suzanne]

I used a studio GC Red week and see 461 resorts/2063 units for July 2010

This was a Christmas Week given 1 year out. I see on a rare occasion a 3 bedroom mostly what I see is studios or 1 bedrooms and depending on the season some 2 bedrooms.

My best friend sees 501 Resorts/ 2178 Units with a standard Southern Calif. beach summer week thats not even on the water and gets poor reviews. She sees lots of two and three bedrooms and pulls alot of Disney units.

 

[AFARR]

Right now I'm seeing 138k total places...with

a 2 Br. Gold Crown 2010 Wk 37 ('red'...but in the shoulder season) on the OBX deposited about 1 1/2 mo ago.

18 resorts (55 units) of 3 Br. in July.... none listed in the US. 3 Resorts/3 Units in Hawaii (July) with 2 Br.

5 Resorts (17 units) with 2 Br. in August for Hawaii.

362 Resorts with 3 Br. until the limits of my search (2011+) (187 in the US, but no Hawaii units). I can see 8 resorts in Hawaii (269 units) with 2 Br. until the limits of the search.

For this July...I see total 464 (resorts)/2084 (units)...51 US resorts (most of the US Resorts...about 60% in a quick skim....are Gold/Silver or Hospitality ranked resorts).

 

[LLW]

Ah, I suspected that something like that was at play, since I could see so much Hawaii inventory in July.

Quick check to see if all trading power considerations are off...

RCI Weeks members, how many total units do you see for July 2010? (Search For a Vacation / Check-In Month July 2010) I see 2225 available units at 512 resorts for either one of my deposits.

(I suspect that some may see more or less due to blocks - for instance, I know I wouldn't be able to see DVC since my units are in Orlando.)

And the quality filter - Vacation Experience Profile VEP - would still be functioning, not so much the up filter but the down filter - high quality weeks will still not be able to see the extremely low quality weeks.

 

[jamstew]

RCI Weeks members, how many total units do you see for July 2010? (Search For a Vacation / Check-In Month July 2010) I see 2225 available units at 512 resorts for either one of my deposits.

I see 2117 units in 475 resorts with my one deposit (SC 2BR lakefront week 31 in Arkansas). 976 of the units are in Mexico, and only 135 are in the US In the US, a quick skim shows a few 2BR available in unrated resorts or off-season for the location (Palm Springs).

 

[durrod]

Michael:

As far as I know the 1 in 4 rule does not apply to owners trading back to Summer bay. Can you see the houses at summer bay?

 

[MichaelColey]

Can you see the houses at summer bay?

I didn't check for that, but I know I was able to see Summer Bay and Summer Bay Villas. Let me look again and see if I can see the houses...

Nope, no Houses at Summer Bay. Just Summer Bay Resort (222 units, 1-3BR) and the Villas at Summer Bay (19 units, 2BR).

 

[Carolinian]

Look at the amount of inventory in the system. Compare how much Orlando is out there availible at any time versus say England, South Africa, Charleston, SC, or San Francisco. The huge amount of inventory always availible is what screams oversupply in the timeshare system. Then, of course, there is always the inside RCI insight of Bootleg on the matter. Orlando owners always seem to be in denial, but facts are facts.

What they usually say is that Orlando is overbuilt (lots of stock.) While it is very true that there is lots of stock, I'm still not convinced that Orlando isn't just heavily built (not necessarily OVER built). And THAT doesn't necessarily indicate that all Orlando resorts are poor traders.

Orlando is also one of the best tourism destinations in the US; so as much as there may be huge supply, there is also a relatively heavy and constant demand. Top end resorts like DVC and HGVC are really good traders. The demand for these locations is huge. Some resorts don't fare as well; they were probably valued better before the market built up (demand outstripped supply). But as the market matured, their value returned to something more reasonable. Being a Canadian, I have no problem finding people who will cover my MF's for March break timeshare getaways as soon as I mention Disney/Orlando - so I have no problem finding demand.

I respect what you are trying to do here. EVERYONE who owns a timeshare suspects that they are being undervalued by II or RCI for some reason. Once RCI starts giving a peek (albeit not too far) behind the curtain, perhaps some of the valuation will make more sense. I suspect at that time, this board will be full of indignant posts about why resort W in location X should be worth more than resort Y in location Z. Your Summer Bay is worth more on RCI than some think it should be worth, but RCI doesn't benefit from overvaluing it. If they can't flip it, they don't make money, so they must have a pretty good idea of the value.

So far I'm also happy with the trades I see and book for my Orlando TSs (3 units), and I'm happy with the MF I pay, and that's really all that matters. If I no longer see trades I want, and/or I can no longer rent to friends and acquaintances, and/or I no longer want to ever go back to WDW :ignore: then I guess I'll dump them and try a different approach.

M Ross

 

[timeos2]

Not a direct option - just another choice that may not fit

Look at the amount of inventory in the system. Compare how much Orlando is out there availible at any time versus say England, South Africa, Charleston, SC, or San Francisco. The huge amount of inventory always availible is what screams oversupply in the timeshare system. Then, of course, there is always the inside RCI insight of Bootleg on the matter. Orlando owners always seem to be in denial, but facts are facts.

As usual ignoring the fact that the desire to request England & South Africa is likely very limited as well as time, costs and location are NOT apt to appeal to someone looking to take the family to a popular destination that appeals to all of them. To some degree the same for San Francisco or Charleston, SC - certainly places US travelers want to see but NOT the repeat destination that an area like Orlando is. It is easier to fulfill the far more limited demand for areas that are very seasonal or overseas and domestic areas that lack year round attractions as they just don't have the near universal appeal as a "one size fits all" entertainment mecca's like Orlando or Las Vegas.

Even Hawaii suffers from the high cost of travel there when compared to the drive to ability of the lower 48. You cannot simply substitute a trip to England or Hawaii as a true option for most families that want an inexpensive trip to Williamsburg, Orlando or Las Vegas where they can load up the car and enjoy a large, upscale unit surrounded by plenty of attractions. Sure the once in a lifetime trip to England or a special stay in San Francisco might be on the radar but not as a routine. And you sure don't hear about millions of families looking to travel to South Africa or even Paris / London on a regular basis as you do for Orlando. The shear volume of interest and ability to absorb even the incredible amount of inventory that Orlando offers shows where people find value. Not to say those other areas don't but it simply isn't an option for many and if there is one unit or 100 in England doesn't matter to the majority of families looking to see Harry Potter land or the mouse.

 

[Carolinian]

Heck, even before moving to Europe, I had made about 5 trips to England for every one trip I had made to Orlando, all for leisure travel. And I even lived in Florida for a year, where Orlando was not that far away (Tampa Bay area).

The key to exchange value is supply and demand in the entire system not just among some subset of it. Look at the number of resorts in South Africa, for example, and then the number of weeks availible for exchange. Compare that to the number of resort in Orlando and the weeks availible for exchange. Ditto England. Heck, I have checked and found more availibility at one resort in Orlando, Vacation Village a Parkway, than in the whole of England. England has an offseason, so being warm all year does not seem to help Orlando that much. The Canary Islands are also warm all year, a nice place, and overbuit with timeshare. There is also always a lot of RCI availibility there as well.

Also, I look at the large amount of inventory that RCI is offering for rent in Orlando at or below m/f, which speaks volumes. Except for Christmas / New Years and summer, it is a better deal to just rent in Orlando from RCI instead of doing a trade whch involves m/f plus exchange fee.

As usual ignoring the fact that the desire to request England & South Africa is likely very limited as well as time, costs and location are NOT apt to appeal to someone looking to take the family to a popular destination that appeals to all of them. To some degree the same for San Francisco or Charleston, SC - certainly places US travelers want to see but NOT the repeat destination that an area like Orlando is. It is easier to fulfill the far more limited demand for areas that are very seasonal or overseas and domestic areas that lack year round attractions as they just don't have the near universal appeal as a "one size fits all" entertainment mecca's like Orlando or Las Vegas.

Even Hawaii suffers from the high cost of travel there when compared to the drive to ability of the lower 48. You cannot simply substitute a trip to England or Hawaii as a true option for most families that want an inexpensive trip to Williamsburg, Orlando or Las Vegas where they can load up the car and enjoy a large, upscale unit surrounded by plenty of attractions. Sure the once in a lifetime trip to England or a special stay in San Francisco might be on the radar but not as a routine. And you sure don't hear about millions of families looking to travel to South Africa or even Paris / London on a regular basis as you do for Orlando. The shear volume of interest and ability to absorb even the incredible amount of inventory that Orlando offers shows where people find value. Not to say those other areas don't but it simply isn't an option for many and if there is one unit or 100 in England doesn't matter to the majority of families looking to see Harry Potter land or the mouse.

 

[rapmarks]

I did a search for July using all 4 deposits: all June 2 bedroom gold crown weeks.
for July there were 1900, I filtered it to USA, 161 units, 69 resorts, lots of studios, hotel room, one bedroom, a scattering of two bedroom, mostly last minute in Hawaii, no 3 bedrooms.
I have a real problem getting the RCI search to function sine the change, can't get very far down the list before it blanks on me.

 

[JudyS]

I recently bought a 3BR lockout at Summer Bay in Orlando, and despite the fact that it's a low value trader, here are some observations I've made about what I can exchange into at RCI...

I'm curious -- why did you buy this unit if you planned to trade, and knew it was a low value trader? Isn't the annual fee fairly high?

 

[MichaelColey]

I recently bought a 3BR lockout at Summer Bay in Orlando, and despite the fact that it's a low value trader

I'm curious -- why did you buy this unit if you planned to trade, and knew it was a low value trader? Isn't the annual fee fairly high?

Trading was one consideration, but not a primary one. I bought it for several reasons:

1) Orlando is somewhere we go every year (and I can foresee us wanting to go there regularly for a long time), so we always have the option of using it.

2) While the maintenance fee is high, it is a lockoff unit so we can split it and get two exchanges.

3) To get access to RCI Extra Vacations and Last Call, which we've already seen great value from. (This was my first timeshare purchase.)

4) The purchase price was just $1 (plus 2010 maintenance, and we got 2010 use).

5) I suspected that the trading value wasn't as bad as everyone said. (And from my initial observations above, I think I can easily get enough value out of it that it'll be better trading it than using it.)

6) Most of the places that are supposed to be better traders have higher maintenance fees, considerably higher up front costs, and aren't places we would necessarily go (much less go every year), and you never know how long they'll continue to be good traders.

That was my thinking. How much of it turns out to be right and how much of it turns out to be wrong remains to be seen, but I'm happy with what I've seen so far.

 

[LisaH]

Which 2010 week did you deposit?

 

[Mel]

Heck, even before moving to Europe, I had made about 5 trips to England for every one trip I had made to Orlando, all for leisure travel. And I even lived in Florida for a year, where Orlando was not that far away (Tampa Bay area).

And you think your travel style should be considered average? Based on your needs, yes it makes sense not to own in Orlando. Based on other people's need it often DOES make sense. I love England, have been several times, and took the kids with us. But I don't go every year, or even every other year. I have Been to Orlando with the family many more times than England. When most US families look at England, they are looking at it as part of Europe. So maybe you should consider the number of resorts in Europe, and the availability, because the appeal of ALL of Europe might be similar to the appeal (and thus demand) of Orlando among this particular demographic - and it is a large portion of RCI's US membership. Otherwise, how would the developers sell so many Orlando weeks?

The key to exchange value is supply and demand in the entire system not just among some subset of it. Look at the number of resorts in South Africa, for example, and then the number of weeks availible for exchange. Compare that to the number of resort in Orlando and the weeks availible for exchange. Ditto England. Heck, I have checked and found more availibility at one resort in Orlando, Vacation Village a Parkway, than in the whole of England. England has an offseason, so being warm all year does not seem to help Orlando that much. The Canary Islands are also warm all year, a nice place, and overbuit with timeshare. There is also always a lot of RCI availibility there as well.

Yes, BOTH parts - both supply AND demand. Yes, we all know Vacation Village (most of their resorts, not just Orlando) has an oversupply. Buy when you look at the big picture, Orlando doesn't have nearly the oversupply you suggest. Yes, you can almost always find a week available, but are 10% or even 5% of the units always available for a given week? Take Orange Lake - you will almost always find at least one week available for a given check in date. But that doesn't tell you very much, just that a single week is available. Your search results will show the same thing whether only 1 unit is available, or if 300 are available. Given the size of the resort, I'm not suprised to find units available most weeks - particularly since there is still some developer involvements (in all 4 phases, because they take weeks back when people trade up to their current points program).

Also, I look at the large amount of inventory that RCI is offering for rent in Orlando at or below m/f, which speaks volumes. Except for Christmas / New Years and summer, it is a better deal to just rent in Orlando from RCI instead of doing a trade whch involves m/f plus exchange fee.

Funny, I just checked the Extra Vacations for all of orange Lake. The cheapest week availabe in a 2BR unit (the smallest I would consider, and what I own), is renting for $850. That's MORE than my maintenance fee. I realize there are plenty of other resorts with units for less than $500, but since I like Orange Lake, and would rather stay there (the other places I would consider instead were even more), the cost of the other units aren't really relevant. I bought at Orange Lake because I like to stay there when I visit Orlando - much as the OP purchased her resort for similar reasons.

The fact that our particular resorts, and a handful of others in Orlando, don't trade nearly as poorly as some would expect (while others do trade poorly), suggests that the conventional "wisdom" about Orlando is faulty. Top weeks at top resorts trade well, and are worth owning, lousy weeks and mediocre resorts are not. Given the size of Orange Lake as compared to Vacation Village, if it were all of Orlando was "the same" I would expect Orange Lake to be the resort with significant excess inventory.

Obviously purchasing in Orlando isn't a smart move for everybody, but for many it does in fact make sense. Most of us agree that some Orlando resorts are overvalued in RCI Points, but certainly RCI Points values do not reflect trade power in RCI Weeks. If it did, there is no way I would have purchased a second 1BR unit in Panama City Beach, because those units are only worth half what my OLCC weeks get - and it's not because the OLCC weeks are overvalued; they are significantly lower than those Vacation Village units that keep sitting empty.

 

[JudyS]

Trading was one consideration, but not a primary one. I bought it for several reasons:

1) Orlando is somewhere we go every year (and I can foresee us wanting to go there regularly for a long time), so we always have the option of using it....

Thanks for your reply! I tend to buy resorts for trading (I haven't ever stayed at most of the resorts I own), but buying where you want to stay is certainly a reasonable strategy, and one that many people on TUG recommend.