Just to be clear, gas prices are not down because of a huge surge in drilling. US rig count is DOWN from 2024 although barrels per day have modestly increased by 3% to 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 as compared to 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024. That increase in barrels per day is attributed not to more new drilling, but to "increasing production efficiency out of maturing wells".
www.eia.gov
Because of how low prices are now, wells will continue to be shut down and, indeed, barrels per day is forecast to decline to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027.
So how have prices come down fairly substantially despite no new drilling and only a 3% increase in US barrels per day during 2025 relative to 2024? It appears that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have simply lowered their prices. In my opinion, that's because of their being very thankful that (1) no one questions their human rights records as well as (2) their chief rival in the oil business, Iran, getting sanctioned and suppressed. Another manifestation of that thankfulness is Qatar gifting the US a new Air Force 1.
They can't lower their prices too low, though. Already, "high extraction cost" frackers are having to shut down and drillers, etc. laid off because their extraction costs are higher than the price per barrel of oil. Any lower and that would be a huge problem not just for frackers, but the American oil industry in general.