The recent silver market

[Carolinian]

That debt problem could be mitigated by taxing gold and silver sales. Washington starts taxing purchases with a 10% sales tax in 2026.

. . . or they could similarly tax stock transactions.

 

[Carolinian]

Now that it is January 1, 2026, lets look at the full last five year results:
Silver up 172.41%
Gold up 127.21%
Platinum up 96.08%
S&P up 85.87%
Dow up 60.01%

 

[Brett]

Now that it is January 1, 2026, lets look at the full last five year results:
Silver up 172.41%
Gold up 127.21%
Platinum up 96.08%
S&P up 85.87%
Dow up 60.01%

You forgot real estate !


Of course total returns (not posted) includes dividends, interest, capital gains, rental payments, etc. less fees and expenses.
Something happens to total returns over the years ....... what could it be ???

 

[emeryjre]

Which Industry has had the biggest growth in demand for Silver

According to the Silver Institute’s data summarized in USAGOLD’s industry review, silver use in solar panels exploded from 60 million oz in 2015 to 232 million oz in 2024. That’s a nearly 4× increase, and the steepest growth occurred in the last several years as global solar build‑outs accelerated.

Even broader industry analysis confirms that PV demand has soared more than any other category, with silver use in solar up ~139% from 2016 to 2025.

Comparison with other sectors​

To put it in perspective:

Sector	5‑year trend	Notes
Solar photovoltaics	Largest increase	Driven by global solar expansion and higher silver loadings per watt
Electronics & electrical	Moderate increase	Up from 213M oz to 254M oz over the decade; steady growth in EVs, 5G, chips
Other industrial uses	Moderate increase	Batteries, medical, catalysts up from 133.7M to 173.5M oz
Jewelry	Small increase	Modest growth from 202.5M to 211.3M oz
Investment demand	Decline	Coins/bars down sharply from 309M to 212M oz

from USAGOLD

 

[Carolinian]

You forgot real estate !


Of course total returns (not posted) includes dividends, interest, capital gains, rental payments, etc. less fees and expenses.
Something happens to total returns over the years ....... what could it be ???



View attachment 120115

The real estate market is a very localized market. National trends are not that helpful in understanding it. You have to research the dynamics of each local market. That is why most of our rental property is not in our home town. Our home town is okay on the rental market, but two counties away, we found really great potential. Our net rental income as a percentage of our purchase cost is a lot better than typical dividends would be on stocks, and appreciation in value has been at least as good as stocks. We also like owning hard assets. When going into rental property, one has to research the local markets in the area and choose the best.

 

[Carolinian]

Which Industry has had the biggest growth in demand for Silver

According to the Silver Institute’s data summarized in USAGOLD’s industry review, silver use in solar panels exploded from 60 million oz in 2015 to 232 million oz in 2024. That’s a nearly 4× increase, and the steepest growth occurred in the last several years as global solar build‑outs accelerated.

Even broader industry analysis confirms that PV demand has soared more than any other category, with silver use in solar up ~139% from 2016 to 2025.

Comparison with other sectors​

To put it in perspective:

Sector	5‑year trend	Notes
Solar photovoltaics	Largest increase	Driven by global solar expansion and higher silver loadings per watt
Electronics & electrical	Moderate increase	Up from 213M oz to 254M oz over the decade; steady growth in EVs, 5G, chips
Other industrial uses	Moderate increase	Batteries, medical, catalysts up from 133.7M to 173.5M oz
Jewelry	Small increase	Modest growth from 202.5M to 211.3M oz
Investment demand	Decline	Coins/bars down sharply from 309M to 212M oz

from USAGOLD

ETF inflows reflect a lot of people are investing that way, but some ETF's do not acquire nearly enough actual silver to back up their contract obligations, assuming people will cash settle. The same is true on the Comex as far as having the actual silver.

 

[TolmiePeak]

. . . or they could similarly tax stock transactions.

But they aren't doing that. They are only taxing gold and silver sales. Look for other states to move forward to tax retail gold sales as well.

 

[Carolinian]

But they aren't doing that. They are only taxing gold and silver sales. Look for other states to move forward to tax retail gold sales as well.

Gold is money. Do they tax other money conversions? It has an FX cross, as does silver, in the Foreign Exchange market. Many monetary gold coins are still legal tender, including the British sovereigns and US pre-1933 gold coins. Even the US Constitution defines money as gold and silver coins. But then again, Washington state is not a lot different than the Peoples Republic of California. In many European countries, VAT (value added tax) applies to silver purchases but not to gold, because gold is money.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Gold is money. Do they tax other money conversions? It has an FX cross, as does silver, in the Foreign Exchange market. Even the US Constitution defines money as gold and silver coins. But then again, Washington state is not a lot different than the Peoples Republic of California.

Yes we have kept the Taliban out of our state. We don't need them making policy.

 

[PigsDad]

Now that it is January 1, 2026, lets look at the full last five year results:
Silver up 172.41%
Gold up 127.21%
Platinum up 96.08%
S&P up 85.87%
Dow up 60.01%

Once again, you didn't post the total return percentages. Makes no difference for the metals, but a significant difference for equities.

Kurt

 

[PigsDad]

Gold is money. Do they tax other money conversions?

Gold and other metals are simply collectibles. They tax the sale of gold and silver rings, so it makes perfect sense to tax raw metals.

Kurt

 

[Carolinian]

Gold and other metals are simply collectibles. They tax the sale of gold and silver rings, so it makes perfect sense to tax raw metals.

Kurt

Ask a central banker. You might learn something.

 

[Carolinian]

The China ban on silver exports will have some interesting impact on the market. China supplies a large percentage of refined silver to the market and as of today that is highly constricted.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Ask a central banker. You might learn something.

Ask the swamp creatures that are robbing us blind? Um no.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Once again, you didn't post the total return percentages. Makes no difference for the metals, but a significant difference for equities.

Kurt

Plus you need to subtract the 15% for the buy/ask spreads on metals. Plus in Washington you have to pay 10% sales tax when you buy and when you sell. That subtracts 20%.

 

[emeryjre]

The interesting thing
Mexico is the world’s #1 producer of silver
China is the #2 producer of silver
China buys a significant amount of Mexican Production
Uses the silver in its own manufacturing plants in China

 

[Carolinian]

The interesting thing
Mexico is the world’s #1 producer of silver
China is the #2 producer of silver
China buys a significant amount of Mexican Production
Uses the silver in its own manufacturing plants in China

Producing silver is not necessarily the key. A growing amount of Mexican mine production is being shipped to China for refining. China has a big percentage of the world's refinery capacity. Once it is refined in China, it is subject to China's export ban. Refining silver in China has been cheaper than refining it in the US or Switzerland which has moved more refinery usage there.

 

[Carolinian]

Plus you need to subtract the 15% for the buy/ask spreads on metals. Plus in Washington you have to pay 10% sales tax when you buy and when you sell. That subtracts 20%.

If your smart you buy close to spot. This weekend, I pulled the trigger on $5,000+ on 90% silver US coins at spot. I should have probably bought more than that but I got some good deals on gold close to spot recently and bought that. There are usually a number of people locally who will buy at spot. One does not have to be subject to the spreads you suggest.

Most states do not have such a tax. If I were in a state like that, I would rent a P.O. Box in a neighboring state with which to take delivery.

 

[easyrider]

I dont get how the physical siver price is $130 usd in Japan and $74 usd in the USA.

Bill

 

[TolmiePeak]

I dont get how the physical siver price is $130 usd in Japan and $74 usd in the USA.

Bill

Exactly. There isn't an efficient marketplace for gold and silver. Someone is getting rich and it isn't the people holding the gold. It is the people convincing them to hold it. Just like in Seattle back in the late 1800s. The people who got rich during the gold rush weren't the miners. It was people who sold the miners equipment at inflated prices.

 

[easyrider]

Exactly. There isn't an efficient marketplace for gold and silver. Someone is getting rich and it isn't the people holding the gold. It is the people convincing them to hold it. Just like in Seattle back in the late 1800s. The people who got rich during the gold rush weren't the miners. It was people who sold the miners equipment at inflated prices.

[/QUOTE

I'm happy with the almost 400% gain at $74. I would be happier with a 800% gain at $134.

Bill

 

[Brett]

Exactly. There isn't an efficient marketplace for gold and silver. Someone is getting rich and it isn't the people holding the gold. It is the people convincing them to hold it. Just like in Seattle back in the late 1800s. The people who got rich during the gold rush weren't the miners. It was people who sold the miners equipment at inflated prices.

Of course.

.

.


.

 

[Carolinian]

But they aren't doing that. They are only taxing gold and silver sales. Look for other states to move forward to tax retail gold sales as well.

Most states are not like the Peoples Republic of Washington. Well, yeah, maybe California is.

Other states are adopting new state-backed Goldbacks currency.

www.goldback.com

 

[Carolinian]

Exactly. There isn't an efficient marketplace for gold and silver. Someone is getting rich and it isn't the people holding the gold. It is the people convincing them to hold it. Just like in Seattle back in the late 1800s. The people who got rich during the gold rush weren't the miners. It was people who sold the miners equipment at inflated prices.

I just bought several thousand dollars of silver at spot. No markup. If I want to sell it, there is a network around here of people interested in gold and silver who I can always sell US silver coins, bullion US eagles, and some other things to at spot. No markup. If I were foolish enough to take it down to one of the local pawn shops who buy gold and silver, I would get ripped off. If I wanted to drive to a nearby county with an actual coin dealer, I would get a better price than the pawn shop but not as good as selling to individuals. I would have a ready market locally as well at spot if I chose to sell my US Liberty eagles and half eagles, German 20 marks and 10 marks, and British sovereigns and half sovereigns. Some of the other foreign gold I have may be more hit or miss, but those would be slam dunk.

What I have found interesting is two videos from different people, one focused on buying gold from local coin dealers in this market and the other on selling to local coin dealers in the market of the last week. One found examples of local dealers wanting over $100 for one ounce gold coins in Europe, Asia, and the US because they were concerned about what the replacement cost might be. The other focused on selling to dealers in this recent market, and found low offer prices, one that was not buying at all, and one that was only interested in buying the official US mint silver eagles but not any other silver rounds. It appears that the wild swings of the market are widening the spread at least with the local dealers. I have not seen that with the big bullion companies.

One opportunity right now is the ability to buy 90% US silver coinage at spot from dealers, which is rare. The chaos is the market with the Comex and LBMA has spiked silver lease rates, and the refineries that melt those coins into bars (sad to see historic coinage on its way to be part of a solar panel) use silver leasing in their business model, and so have not been taking them in for melting. Those sales keep coming and coming. I have bought all sorts of things at spot - dimes, quarters, halves, even Morgan dollars and modern commemorative silver dollars - from the big dealers on sales over the past couple of months. The sales are always limited to particular items. The one going right now is dimes and quarters.

 

[Carolinian]

Doesn't that make it virtually impossible for exporters in Norway to compete? Moving towards the Euro would be a huge boon for them.

The Bulgarian government thought so and just rammed a change to the euro down the throats of their citizens, who polls have consistently shown prefer to keep their national currency, the lev. The fact that the same government has just had to resign after mass public demonstrations, mostly focused on other economic matters, has not stopped the changeover.

Keeping a national currency can have its advantages. Last year, the Hungarian forint gained 6% against the euro in value, and 17.5% against the US dollar.

Hungarian forint currency had an incredible year in 2025, but what does 2026 hold?

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