A Likely Meaningless Experiment with MGC

[Retired2025 aka AlmostRetired]

Looking to reserve my MGO Owned unit for week 25, so I booked my annual and EOY 3 Bedroom GC lock-offs (2 bedroom, 1 Bedroom) to reserve it today. I booked Week 23 (TDI 130),with one of the 2 bedroom GC and week 24(TDI 135) for the remaining units ( two- 1 bedrooms and one 2 bedroom). They all have the same trade request in II for the same timespan for a 2 bedrooms at the GO. I would think the 2 two bedroom units would trade first before the 2 one bedrooms. The TDI and deposit timeframe t (13 months out) are virtually equal, so a non factor in all the trades. The annual is enrolled and the EOY is not. This is likely not a factor. The GO trade is my default and will re-trade one or both of the 2 enrolled units if the family decides on another beach location. In 2024 we have 5 units in HHI. 3 weeks with my wife and I unless friends join and 1 week with 2 units for the family to join.

My last experiment with the GC was in 2022 when I reserved each 3 bedroom (2 bedroom) and 1 bedroom) the same weeks, one at at 12 months out and the other at 9 months out. The only surprise was that the 9 month 2 bedroom grabbed a GO before the 12 month 2 bedroom. I called II to find out why. After being switched from person to person with no explanation, I got to a specialist who told me there is a group of specialists that do manual searches at random and that have access to the units before they enter the trade system. I enjoyed the song and dance. It may or may not be true. The other difference between the 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom was on only manual searches for re-trades. The 1 bedroom saw platinum units at the fringe of platinum season ( we were going to St Thomas in April) and the 2 bedroom showed a wider timeframe in platinum season. I did not really learn anything useful. I suspect this time will be the same.

 

[marmite]

The 1 bedroom saw platinum units at the fringe of platinum season ( we were going to St Thomas in April) and the 2 bedroom showed a wider timeframe in platinum season. I did not really learn anything useful. I suspect this time will be the same.

I am also experimenting with MGC (and my other traders) by mapping out all the exchanges I can see for Hawaii in 2024 & 2025. It's a little bit gruelling as I'm also dealing with Marriott/Vistana/no preference tracking. I'm only a couple weeks into this painful-exercise, yet It is glaringly apparent that the trade-power required for high-season weeks has increased. It is actually very rare now for my studio-side to see a 1 BR (Elite & Premium rated) Hawaii week unless it is 125TDI or under. So you seeing platinum at the "fringe" is absolutely true, if the TDI even increases slightly one of your units may not be able to see the week.

I am just trying to pinpoint exactly where that is for my various units, so I can use them more efficiently. I'm going to have to save my highest-trade power units for very specific trades if they're in peak season or are a 2BR. My low-powered units may have to be used to scoop up Flexchange weeks or 1 BR's in low seasons.

Thanks for reporting your findings. Having a 2BR to trade gives you a huge trade-power bump, so there should be very little you can't see with it.

 

[Hindsite]

Do you think the Supply and Demand causes a variable fluctuation as travel patterns for the future 3,6 or 12 months as they get modeled, or do you think it is fixed with relatively rare specific changes like has been observed recently?
I wondered if they've changed/improved their modelling methods to provide a closer alignment between input value of deposit and output value of exchange.

 

[Dean]

Do you think the Supply and Demand causes a variable fluctuation as travel patterns for the future 3,6 or 12 months as they get modeled, or do you think it is fixed with relatively rare specific changes like has been observed recently?
I wondered if they've changed/improved their modelling methods to provide a closer alignment between input value of deposit and output value of exchange.

It appears to me they adjust over time but don't micromanage. They certainly adjust based on major events and holidays. I don't get the impression their computer programs are sophisticated enough to do demand pricing and they probably don't need to be. Just like they don't really adjust trade power on a resort basis but on an area basis. However, they do also restrict exchanges based on resort quality which has a similar impact as adjusting trade power by resort.

Sorry, AlmostRetired, but I'm not sure there's much to be gained here other than some fun while playing. As you were told, it's not a perfect system. Many of us have seen the exact item sitting online we were searching for at times.

 

[marmite]

Do you think the Supply and Demand causes a variable fluctuation as travel patterns for the future 3,6 or 12 months as they get modeled, or do you think it is fixed with relatively rare specific changes like has been observed recently?
I wondered if they've changed/improved their modelling methods to provide a closer alignment between input value of deposit and output value of exchange.

I agree with Dean, I don't think there is anything sophisticated going on here. Interval increased trade requirements for points contracts such as Diamond and Hyatt this year, so even though with weeks exchanging it wouldn't be visible to the naked eye (as in you can't see that something that once was 5000 points is now 6000) it makes sense that we would see an increase too. Platinum Marriott weeks with the highest TDI selected for the deposit, will still see good stuff (perhaps larger units than you are exchanging), but even if you drop that trade power a little (say to 135 TDI) and those weeks start to disappear.

I wouldn't say this is an improvement (for us at least), sure it is much closer to what you deposit but you often can't buy your way into a larger unit like you used to. My studio simply won't see some 1BR's at all. There is no option to pay $100 to get a 1BR if available. So even if you have a Marriott/Vistana, preference isn't going to go as far. Some of those deposits will just sit there, go out of preference and then be available to all. I think we have been seeing this with the bulk deposits of MMO at least.

 

[Dean]

To respond further. My information suggests that trade power starts to drop incrementally if you deposit under 10 months out though I don't think this is something that can be confirmed. I've also come to believe that location and resort rating is more important than I believed in the past even M to M. This has led me to believe that the following order is representative of relative trade power assuming a top TDI week for area deposited at least 12-13 months out when looking at the traditional trading units of GV, HL, GC, WR & MC all Platinum as well as Gold CA desert. For GV & HL I compare looking at the 4th, not winter holidays. I used TDI but also rental price charts and RCI's TPU's to compare. For RCI I used the same resort where applicable and the best comparable resort when a MVC resort was not in RCI for that location. My info suggests to me that we can divided in the following way. GV/CA desert Gold then HL/GC then MC/WR. I realize the difference is likely not enough to matter for most situations but I believe it is for more difficult options like HHI mid summer, Aruba Feb/March, etc.

Part of my experience that led to some of my thoughts are that I bought an EOY GV unit a couple of years ago, reserved as a studio and 1 BR and deposited at 11 months out from the week 26 reservation date. At the time I had several pending searches that included MGO week 26 with deposited from WR all also week 26 including both a 1 BR and a 2 BR and all deposited 14-15 months out and searches set up at the time of deposit for MGO more than 13 months out. The 1BR GV matched to MGO week 26 in Feb and the studio matched to the same week 2 months later. Both with standing requests using WR 1 AND 2BR optimized deposits that were in well before the GV deposits and searches were initiated. What I can't answer is whether this was just random or whether my other deposits would have matched these units had these not been there. Obviously a small sample size but it's some specifics that coincides with some of my other subtle tidbits of info over the years.

 

[claraj]

I'm soaking up these data points because I will foray into trading with an enrolled week at Los Suenos and a platinum week at Grande Vista. If the Los Suenos week proves to be not a good trader, I may elect points going forward.

 

[jwalk03]

I'm soaking up these data points because I will foray into trading with an enrolled week at Los Suenos and a platinum week at Grande Vista. If the Los Suenos week proves to be not a good trader, I may elect points going forward.

I would think that Los Suenos would trade very well. Its a small resort with high demand- but do let us know how it goes!!

 

[Dean]

I would think that Los Suenos would trade very well. Its a small resort with high demand- but do let us know how it goes!!

I would tend to agree but suspect it'd still be better to trade GV and take points for Costa Rica for most people.

 

[Retired2025 aka AlmostRetired]

Sorry, AlmostRetired, but I'm not sure there's much to be gained here other than some fun while playing.

I am in full agreement, I am not sure there is much to be gained. If there is something, I am not sure how transferable it will be to others since this is specific to my portfolio. My traders are 2 - 3 bedroom GC's, trading as 2 and 1 bedrooms. I will reserved my GO at 13 months + 2 weeks, followed by my 2 GC's every year. All 2025 trades i have so far are in for the GO.

We all know there is a trading algorithm and there is plenty of speculation on how deposit window, TDI, location of resort, quality of resort, season and unit size comes into play on what is traded. We know that many of the same factors go into what one is are trying to trade for. I can eliminate many of the factors given my portfolio and what I am trying to do so the only influence will be one bedroom trades against two bedroom trades. I have eliminated quality of the resort from the equation. Deposit window out of the equation. Though it is not my opinion, Las Vegas is a desirable location and GC is popular. The week TDI's (130 and 135) I reserved have only 2 TDI weeks higher. So the TDI's are taken out of the equation for my comparison. Season taken out of the equation. My four trades are all for the GO, from June 19-July 24th, so again TDI, quality, season, popularity, unit size all 2 bedrooms, all taken out of the equation. I will get the trade for the EOY even 2024 I just picked up and will have another two trade to add to the mix. They reserved week 42 which has a TDI of 130 and of cause a 2024 reservation. I am hoping to get them into my account by the end of June. It is highly unlikely I will get any trades by then so I will try trading these two weeks for the same GO during the same span for 2025. I think I know what will happen but after all trades get done, I will know.

2022 was the last time I have 4 GC trades because of the annual and EOY odd weeks I have. Everything was the same except the deposit window which was done at 12 and 9 months only because I picked up the EOY odd that year and added into my account. Again specific to the GC and possibly meaning full other places, the two one bedrooms traded for Platinum 2 bedrooms only saw the tail end of the platinum season at both St Thomas and the GO while the 2 bedrooms saw a greater span of units. The difference between the 9 and 12 month window did not have any influence on this.

I really do not pay attention to which traders trade better. I am hopeful to learn something that might help me get the most out of with my portfolio in how I use it. Will anyone else learn anything? I hope so but I will go back to, I am not sure there is much to be gained.

 

[Dean]

I am in full agreement, I am not sure there is much to be gained. If there is something, I am not sure how transferable it will be to others since this is specific to my portfolio. My traders are 2 - 3 bedroom GC's, trading as 2 and 1 bedrooms. I will reserved my GO at 13 months + 2 weeks, followed by my 2 GC's every year. All 2025 trades i have so far are in for the GO.

We all know there is a trading algorithm and there is plenty of speculation on how deposit window, TDI, location of resort, quality of resort, season and unit size comes into play on what is traded. We know that many of the same factors go into what one is are trying to trade for. I can eliminate many of the factors given my portfolio and what I am trying to do so the only influence will be one bedroom trades against two bedroom trades. I have eliminated quality of the resort from the equation. Deposit window out of the equation. Though it is not my opinion, Las Vegas is a desirable location and GC is popular. The week TDI's (130 and 135) I reserved have only 2 TDI weeks higher. So the TDI's are taken out of the equation for my comparison. Season taken out of the equation. My four trades are all for the GO, from June 19-July 24th, so again TDI, quality, season, popularity, unit size all 2 bedrooms, all taken out of the equation. I will get the trade for the EOY even 2024 I just picked up and will have another two trade to add to the mix. They reserved week 42 which has a TDI of 130 and of cause a 2024 reservation. I am hoping to get them into my account by the end of June. It is highly unlikely I will get any trades by then so I will try trading these two weeks for the same GO during the same span for 2025. I think I know what will happen but after all trades get done, I will know.

2022 was the last time I have 4 GC trades because of the annual and EOY odd weeks I have. Everything was the same except the deposit window which was done at 12 and 9 months only because I picked up the EOY odd that year and added into my account. Again specific to the GC and possibly meaning full other places, the two one bedrooms traded for Platinum 2 bedrooms only saw the tail end of the platinum season at both St Thomas and the GO while the 2 bedrooms saw a greater span of units. The difference between the 9 and 12 month window did not have any influence on this.

I really do not pay attention to which traders trade better. I am hopeful to learn something that might help me get the most out of with my portfolio in how I use it. Will anyone else learn anything? I hope so but I will go back to, I am not sure there is much to be gained.

I have been involved in trade testing previously where a group of people used different deposits to search for the exact same things at the exact same time and then compared results. This is more helpful but it's still limited by what's sitting online. I do think this type of comparison has some benefit when comparing different resorts and deposits but it's still limited. Still, it can be fun playing around and that was my impression of what you're doing. I think many of us do that at times with a number of variations.

 

[5finny]

To respond further. My information suggests that trade power starts to drop incrementally if you deposit under 10 months out though I don't think this is something that can be confirmed. I've also come to believe that location and resort rating is more important than I believed in the past even M to M. This has led me to believe that the following order is representative of relative trade power assuming a top TDI week for area deposited at least 12-13 months out when looking at the traditional trading units of GV, HL, GC, WR & MC all Platinum as well as Gold CA desert. For GV & HL I compare looking at the 4th, not winter holidays. I used TDI but also rental price charts and RCI's TPU's to compare. For RCI I used the same resort where applicable and the best comparable resort when a MVC resort was not in RCI for that location. My info suggests to me that we can divided in the following way. GV/CA desert Gold then HL/GC then MC/WR. I realize the difference is likely not enough to matter for most situations but I believe it is for more difficult options like HHI mid summer, Aruba Feb/March, etc.

Part of my experience that led to some of my thoughts are that I bought an EOY GV unit a couple of years ago, reserved as a studio and 1 BR and deposited at 11 months out from the week 26 reservation date. At the time I had several pending searches that included MGO week 26 with deposited from WR all also week 26 including both a 1 BR and a 2 BR and all deposited 14-15 months out and searches set up at the time of deposit for MGO more than 13 months out. The 1BR GV matched to MGO week 26 in Feb and the studio matched to the same week 2 months later. Both with standing requests using WR 1 AND 2BR optimized deposits that were in well before the GV deposits and searches were initiated. What I can't answer is whether this was just random or whether my other deposits would have matched these units had these not been there. Obviously a small sample size but it's some specifics that coincides with some of my other subtle tidbits of info over the years.

At least as to the studio GC vs 2 BR Plat WR I hope the results were random
I hate to think my 2 Plat WR will do so poorly (even if I keep them as 2 BR 's and skip the lock off)

 

[Hindsite]

Its always useful to have objective examples of trading and the associated discussion is useful to improve individual understanding.
Many thanks for posting.

 

[jmhpsu93]

There's always the question "if I want to trade into X with my unit Y will I be able to?" and all of these data points help answer that question with some actual results, so I definitely see some broader benefit in the exercise.

Well, and the gaming aspect is fun.

 

[Retired2025 aka AlmostRetired]

fun playing around and that was my impression of what you're doing

Between my owner GO and the eventual 6 trades within that tightened timeframe, I am hoping to get 3 units for 1 week. If I really got all 6, I will likely re-trade 1 or 2 of them. I am going to have fun trying to get what I need, but I am not doing it for fun if that makes sense.

 

[Dean]

At least as to the studio GC vs 2 BR Plat WR I hope the results were random
I hate to think my 2 Plat WR will do so poorly (even if I keep them as 2 BR 's and skip the lock off)

It was a studio at GV not, GC. I think GV trades slightly better than GC. Unfortunately my experiences exchanging WR the last few year suggest this was not a fluke. And with 2 units some locked off and some as 2 BR at times (all week 26), I've had a fair amount of pending exchanges with which to judge from. I still think WR will get most thing most of the time that are realistic but I suspect it will not get me to the top tier options during higher times anymore. I suspect this is more of a resort quality issues than strict trade power issue but the two together are likely compounding the situation.

 

[Retired2025 aka AlmostRetired]

A little bit of a change. My kids both want to go back to the Monarch where we spent many a summer week from 1996 on until selling in 2020. We sold and purchased GO for more space (sleep 8). Now I have a granddaughter, my son wants his daughter so spend a week next summer. So the two one bedroom trades I moved the trade from the GO to the Monarch. One of the advantages of fixed week is you automatically get access to it at 18 months before check-in. Within 24 hours we got the a week for the first week in August. Will use rental points to get the second.

 

[claraj]

I was able to recently deposit my Los Suenos lock off (1 BR and studio). For the most part I'm able to see the same availability with both except when searching Christmas week.

My brother's family and some extended family just decided they want to go some where for Christmas and landed on Orlando, MGV to be specific. I am able to see a 2BR at Grande Vista with my 1BR deposit for Christmas week but not with my studio. I can only see studios for that week. Alas, I am hoping to get a 2BR in Aruba with the 1BR so I'm not exchanging that for Orlando.

Just thought I'd share.

 

[dioxide45]

I was able to recently deposit my Los Suenos lock off (1 BR and studio). For the most part I'm able to see the same availability with both except when searching Christmas week.

My brother's family and some extended family just decided they want to go some where for Christmas and landed on Orlando, MGV to be specific. I am able to see a 2BR at Grande Vista with my 1BR deposit for Christmas week but not with my studio. I can only see studios for that week. Alas, I am hoping to get a 2BR in Aruba with the 1BR so I'm not exchanging that for Orlando.

Just thought I'd share.

It would be interesting to know how LS compares to what you can see with your GV deposits?

 

[claraj]

It would be interesting to know how LS compares to what you can see with your GV deposits?

I spent a little time running dummy deposit searches comparing different seasons for LS 2BR with GV Platinum season 2BR and searched all the Marriott Hilton Head properties for any weeks between Jan to Aug 2025.

From what I can tell LS platinum and GV Platinum weeks pull the same resorts and weeks. LS gold week was not able to pull higher TDI weeks that I saw with the platinum week (Easter week, late May and early August).

Let me know if you would like me to try searching other properties.