New poll: 65% of Americans unlikely to buy EV's; 29% likely

[ScoopKona]

EV's only make sense for some people and geographies. Hybrids have much broader appeal and are easier conversions for those who have only owned ICE vehicles. This is why the government should never make rules that force changes that don't make sense to most people.

Actually, that's most people and most geographies. Most Americans live in an urban/suburban environment. They make relatively short trips which can be there-and-backed on a single charge. And then they can plug in at home. If there's solar on the roof, that makes even more sense. Most people don't take many long road trips in a year. And if we had a more robust charging network, fill-ups/top-ups/partials could be accomplished during lunch, hotel stays and similar.

The "I hate electricity" crowd is forcing their demands on a public who would be better served without combustion engines. The people who live 200 miles from anywhere can continue to do whatever makes sense for them. But they're in the slimmest minority.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

So if you want to look at it this way:

$3100 savings per year in gas
$ 610 Commuter lanes/bridge tolls avoided with EV
$150 CA Smog Check (avoided with EV)
$550 ICE annual maintenance tune service at dealer (my last EV was $40. $550 was what they quoted before I told them this was an EV)
$270 oil changes (quarterly when not at dealer)

= $4680 + $ My time taking to ICE smog checks, oil changes, gas stations weekly.

ICE gulf to e-golf. That's almost $5k / year savings. That's with a car that has an mpg of around 30 mpg for $3100 in gas alone.

If you get a bigger ICE car or SUV with lower mpg then the gas savings increase. (See my other cars which is the "Do Nothing" option).

This is enough to go on an extra vacation every year plus not wasting time at gas stations and smog checks.

Much of those costs are California-centric. Nothing wrong with living in California, merely expensive.

Texas comparison:
Car - 2012 Hundai Elantra (Bought cash new - no interest. And uses regular gas - not premium.)

Yearly mileage - 10,000
Gas - 10000 @26 MPG (that's my average over a decade) = 385 gallon a year. 385 * $2.75/gallon (pretty good average for gas here) = $1059
EV Saving on on tolls - N/A in Texas. $0
Savings on EV annual road tax in Texas - $-200
CA annual smog check - N/A in Texas - $0
Annual Maintenance fee (and repairs) - $600 ? (It's been an extremely reliable car. My last repair was to fix the driver's side visor - 2 years ago!)
Quarterly oil change - $160/YR

Net cost for my Elantra - $1820 / YR (before insurance - not mentioned in the CA statistics.)

Capital expense to date - $24000/12 years (bought in Sept 2011) = $2000/YR (and dropping, of course as the years go by . . .)

Now it's one of those dull, boring, cars. I don't care, that much more money to do other things with. Status means zilch to me. . .

 

[Ken555]

California requires a smog check every two years, not every year, for most cars. I paid $60 for a recent smog check, though prices vary from ~$35-70, I believe.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Now let's take a look at buy and using an EV in Texas.

How long will the battery back last? I will be generous and say 15 years. Which means your cost of driving has to include depreciation on the battery pack. Currently the cost of a new battery pack is running about $15,000. So say $1000/yr battery depreciation. Add in the $200/yr EV road tax. Net $1200/yr to my $1820/yr. But that is before charging costs. Even in Texas that would run around $,12 to $,14 per kilowatt hour. If you charge a 90 KW battery, that's around $11 a charge. Assuming you get 300 miles from that battery for the car (no Apteras please), that's 33 charges or around $366 a year (33 charges @ $11 a charge)

So we're talking
$1000 a year battery depreciation
$200 a year road taxes
$366 a year electricity.

$1566/yr net to $1820/yr. Not enough to justify the purchase price of the rest of the EV vehicle. (Even at net $10000 for the rest of the vehicle.)

Now if one prefers to own/drive an EV, that's a matter of taste here. Drive a Rolls Royce if you prefer. But there's no real economic advantage here for EVs.

 

[Superchief]

Actually, that's most people and most geographies. Most Americans live in an urban/suburban environment. They make relatively short trips which can be there-and-backed on a single charge. And then they can plug in at home. If there's solar on the roof, that makes even more sense. Most people don't take many long road trips in a year. And if we had a more robust charging network, fill-ups/top-ups/partials could be accomplished during lunch, hotel stays and similar.

The "I hate electricity" crowd is forcing their demands on a public who would be better served without combustion engines. The people who live 200 miles from anywhere can continue to do whatever makes sense for them. But they're in the slimmest minority.

I'm impressed that you can speak for the majority of Americans. Do you work for the government?

 

[Elan]

Much of those costs are California-centric. Nothing wrong with living in California, merely expensive.

Texas comparison:
Car - 2012 Hundai Elantra (Bought cash new - no interest. And uses regular gas - not premium.)

Yearly mileage - 10,000
Gas - 10000 @26 MPG (that's my average over a decade) = 385 gallon a year. 385 * $2.75/gallon (pretty good average for gas here) = $1059
EV Saving on on tolls - N/A in Texas. $0
Savings on EV annual road tax in Texas - $-200
CA annual smog check - N/A in Texas - $0
Annual Maintenance fee (and repairs) - $600 ? (It's been an extremely reliable car. My last repair was to fix the driver's side visor - 2 years ago!)
Quarterly oil change - $160/YR

Net cost for my Elantra - $1820 / YR (before insurance - not mentioned in the CA statistics.)

Capital expense to date - $24000/12 years (bought in Sept 2011) = $2000/YR (and dropping, of course as the years go by . . .)

Now it's one of those dull, boring, cars. I don't care, that much more money to do other things with. Status means zilch to me. . .

While I understand everyone's situation is unique, this is a far more meaningful and representative analysis than using data from fuel inefficient beaters that require frequent towing.

 

[CericRushmore]

= $4680 + $ My time taking to ICE smog checks, oil changes, gas stations weekly.

I'm amazed on how much people spend on cars. Your savings are more than our entire auto/transport cost. My comment didn't get lots of reviews a while back, but we spend a total of $2,500 a year for auto (everything even including insurance), bicycles maintenance and public transport. We are a 1 car household and use bikes in city for everything except for grocery shopping. We used the 2009 Honda Fit for leaving the city for traveling.

How much is the annual CA Vehicle License fee for your vehicles?

Our friends in nearby VA spend more just on the vehicle tax for their Teslas than our entire auto/transport cost.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@Ralph Sir Edward Thanks for your analysis. Everyones situation is different.

Texas has some of the lowest gas prices in the nation. So this may be best for your situation.

$3.148 was the average in June 2023 for regular Texas statewide. However you applied $2.75/gal. Either you live in a low pocket, or you are using current prices to apply to every year you will own.

(The nationwide average in 2022 was $4.970.)

A more accurate analysis would factor in prices actually paid including the past few years when prices nationwide were approaching $5 because you owned the car then and paid real money.

In addition, prices could rise again as tensions increase in the Middle East and OPEC. A more conservative analysis would factor that in. That would get closer to the true cost.

Pay at the pump: Gas prices by state

How do average gas prices compare across states? The cost of getting from A to B could look significantly different depending on location.

www.empower.com

 

[PcflEZFlng]

You’re referring to the huge - HUGE - subsidies we send to the oil and gas industry now, right?

Exactly what I've been thinking. It's amazing to me (well, no not really) how some people are "outraged, outraged I tell you" at subsidies and corporate lobbying for solar and EV production when it's already been going on in spades for the oil and gas industry since before we were born, and continues today.

 

[ScoopKona]

I'm impressed that you can speak for the majority of Americans. Do you work for the government?

No. I'm literate.

"It is estimated that 83% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas, up from 64% in 1950. By 2050, 89% of the U.S. population and 68% of the world population is projected to live in urban areas."

U.S. Cities Factsheet

Large, densely populated, and bustling with activity, cities are cultural and economic centers, providing employment, leisure, and educational opportunities. Energy and resources flow in and out of cities to support their population and infrastructure. However, there is increasing attention on...

css.umich.edu

 

[Brett]

Exactly what I've been thinking. It's amazing to me (well, no not really) how some people are "outraged, outraged I tell you" at subsidies and corporate lobbying for solar and EV production when it's already been going on in spades for the oil and gas industry since before we were born, and continues today.

and at some point those oil depletion subsidies are gonna be gone

Fossil Fuel Subsidies Surged to Record $7 Trillion in 2023​

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion

 

[CalGalTraveler]

EV's only make sense for some people and geographies. Hybrids have much broader appeal and are easier conversions for those who have only owned ICE vehicles. This is why the government should never make rules that force changes that don't make sense to most people.

1) Every ICE vehicle that is removed from the road in Calif or elsewhere benefits everyone in less EV fertile areas. Why?

a) less demand for oil will bring prices down or stabilizes for less EV fertile markets. (Supply/Demand).

b) It contributes to USA energy independence and security by demanding less oil from the Middle East and other unstable parts of the world.

2) AFAIK no one is being forced to buy an EV. Hybrids and ICE are available. When it makes economic sense people will convert. If not, they won't. Simple economics.

California requires a smog check every two years, not every year, for most cars. I paid $60 for a recent smog check, though prices vary from ~$35-70, I believe.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yes, I forgot it was 2 years. Thanks. FWIW it doesn't move the needle much if I update because it is a small difference compared to other savings. But good to note.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Now let's take a look at buy and using an EV in Texas.

How long will the battery back last? I will be generous and say 15 years. Which means your cost of driving has to include depreciation on the battery pack. Currently the cost of a new battery pack is running about $15,000. So say $1000/yr battery depreciation. Add in the $200/yr EV road tax. Net $1200/yr to my $1820/yr. But that is before charging costs. Even in Texas that would run around $,12 to $,14 per kilowatt hour. If you charge a 90 KW battery, that's around $11 a charge. Assuming you get 300 miles from that battery for the car (no Apteras please), that's 33 charges or around $366 a year (33 charges @ $11 a charge)

So we're talking
$1000 a year battery depreciation
$200 a year road taxes
$366 a year electricity.

$1566/yr net to $1820/yr. Not enough to justify the purchase price of the rest of the EV vehicle. (Even at net $10000 for the rest of the vehicle.)

Now if one prefers to own/drive an EV, that's a matter of taste here. Drive a Rolls Royce if you prefer. But there's no real economic advantage here for EVs.

Interesting analysis. Have you factored in the 30%* Federal Tax Credit for purchase of an EV?

In addition have you evaluated installing solar at 30%* Federal Tax credit? Texas surely would provide a lot of free kw sunshine for recharging at home.

* AFAIK it is 30% but haven't purchased recently so could vary. I presume TX doesn't provide any state incentives given its heavy ties to oil industry.

 

[CericRushmore]

Fossil Fuel Subsidies Surged to Record $7 Trillion in 2023​

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion

For those interested in the details of this, the link has a sheet to download the country by country data. The USA has $0 in Explicit Subsidies and $3 Billion in Producer Subsidies. So, the USA doesn't really do direct subsidies for the oil and gas industry. The USA has large implicit subsidies for not taxing the environmental impacts of gas (implicit subsidies).

Sorry, I messed up the reply quote, the link was from Brett above. Updated the post now.

Another interesting note, China has $266 billion in Explicit subsidies as a point of comparison.

 

[Ken555]

For those interested in the details of this, the link has a sheet to download the country by country data. The USA has $0 in Explicit Subsidies and $3 Billion in Producer Subsidies. So, the USA doesn't really do direct subsidies for the oil and gas industry. The USA has large implicit subsidies for not taxing the environmental impacts of gas (implicit subsidies).

Sorry, I messed up the reply quote, the link was from Brett above. Updated the post now.

Another interesting note, China has $266 billion in Explicit subsidies as a point of comparison.

I think you may want to review this one more time and consider your conclusions again particularly in light of the info at the bottom of pages 18 and 27, which state that the USA provides $3B in explicit and $754B in implicit subsidies.

Additionally, you may find this of interest:

Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Subsidies are intended to protect consumers by keeping prices low, but they come at a high cost. Subsidies have sizable fiscal costs (leading to higher taxes/borrowing or lower spending), promote inefficient allocation of an economy’s resources (hindering growth), encourage pollution...

www.imf.org

When I see reports like this one, I look at the total impact and work backwards. In this case, it appears we spend $754B in total subsidies and I see no reason to dive into the details of separating that into various categories. The point of my earlier reference to the oil and gas subsidies was to simply illustrate that we contribute a significant amount to that industry in rebuttal to the complaints about subsidies to the EV industry. While interesting in and of itself, and worthy of a separate discussion, it is tangential to the reason this topic was mentioned.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[CericRushmore]

I think you may want to review this one more time and consider your conclusions again particularly in light of the info at the bottom of pages 18 and 27, which state that the USA provides $3B in explicit and $754B in implicit subsidies.

Additionally, you may find this of interest:

Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Subsidies are intended to protect consumers by keeping prices low, but they come at a high cost. Subsidies have sizable fiscal costs (leading to higher taxes/borrowing or lower spending), promote inefficient allocation of an economy’s resources (hindering growth), encourage pollution...

www.imf.org

When I see reports like this one, I look at the total impact and work backwards. In this case, it appears we spend $754B in total subsidies and I see no reason to dive into the details of separating that into various categories. The point of my earlier reference to the oil and gas subsidies was to simply illustrate that we contribute a significant amount to that industry in rebuttal to the complaints about subsidies to the EV industry. While interesting in and of itself, and worthy of a separate discussion, it is tangential to the reason this topic was mentioned.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I'm not sure what you are trying to argue against. I listed the $3 billion in my comment and said that the USA has a lot of implicit subsidies. Implicit subsidies aren't direct subsidies. The IMF is the one that categorizes the 3 types of subsidies.

 

[emeryjre]

Any subsidies for buying a Rolls Royce with an engine swap to a chevy 5.7 Liter engine

 

[Ken555]

I'm not sure what you are trying to argue against. I listed the $3 billion in my comment and said that the USA has a lot of implicit subsidies. Implicit subsidies aren't direct subsidies. The IMF is the one that categorizes the 3 types of subsidies.

My post was clarifying that the total subsidies the US provides the industry is significantly higher than the $3B you specifically mentioned in your post. I don’t think $751B is a small amount, and I wouldn’t toss it away by simply saying that there was “a lot” of implicit subsidies. After all, what you consider “a lot” and what I consider “a lot” may not be the same, so why wouldn’t you just put the exact amount? I can only think of one reason.

And rather than distinguish between direct and indirect, I believe it’s easier to just combine them for this discussion. After all, this isn’t a discussion on the details of oil and gas subsidies but rather, once again, was just to make the point as a response to those complaining that there were subsidies given to the EV industry without any mention of those to the oil and gas industry.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[joestein]

So if you want to look at it this way:

$3100 savings per year in gas
$ 610 Commuter lanes/bridge tolls avoided with EV
$150 CA Smog Check (avoided with EV)
$550 ICE annual maintenance tune service at dealer (my last EV was $40. $550 was what they quoted before I told them this was an EV)
$270 oil changes (quarterly when not at dealer)

= $4680 + $ My time taking to ICE smog checks, oil changes, gas stations weekly.

ICE gulf to e-golf. That's almost $5k / year savings. That's with a car that has an mpg of around 30 mpg for $3100 in gas alone.

If you get a bigger ICE car or SUV with lower mpg then the gas savings increase. (See my other cars which is the "Do Nothing" option).

This is enough to go on an extra vacation every year plus not wasting time at gas stations and smog checks.

So, EVs don't pay tolls in CA? They probably cause more road wear than ICE cars due to the weight. No wonder CA is $68 Billion over budget.

 

[CericRushmore]

My post was clarifying that the total subsidies the US provides the industry is significantly higher than the $3B you specifically mentioned in your post. I don’t think $751B is a small amount, and I wouldn’t toss it away by simply saying that there was “a lot” of implicit subsidies. After all, what you consider “a lot” and what I consider “a lot” may not be the same, so why wouldn’t you just put the exact amount? I can only think of one reason.

And rather than distinguish between direct and indirect, I believe it’s easier to just combine them for this discussion. After all, this isn’t a discussion on the details of oil and gas subsidies but rather, once again, was just to make the point as a response to those complaining that there were subsidies given to the EV industry without any mention of those to the oil and gas industry.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

OK, I see what you are saying. I don't think most people think of implicit subsidies as actual subsidies since their isn't direct financial support. I think people know that there are environmental impacts to oil and natural gas.

EVs are generally heavier vehicles which are more dangerous and there is also an environmental impact to mining for batteries and of course electricity is run on natural gas as well, so EVs also have implicit subsidies.

I'm not sure there has been a scientific analysis done on which (EV, hybrid, or IEC) has higher implicit subsidies.

 

[joestein]

Now let's take a look at buy and using an EV in Texas.

How long will the battery back last? I will be generous and say 15 years. Which means your cost of driving has to include depreciation on the battery pack. Currently the cost of a new battery pack is running about $15,000. So say $1000/yr battery depreciation. Add in the $200/yr EV road tax. Net $1200/yr to my $1820/yr. But that is before charging costs. Even in Texas that would run around $,12 to $,14 per kilowatt hour. If you charge a 90 KW battery, that's around $11 a charge. Assuming you get 300 miles from that battery for the car (no Apteras please), that's 33 charges or around $366 a year (33 charges @ $11 a charge)

So we're talking
$1000 a year battery depreciation
$200 a year road taxes
$366 a year electricity.

$1566/yr net to $1820/yr. Not enough to justify the purchase price of the rest of the EV vehicle. (Even at net $10000 for the rest of the vehicle.)

Now if one prefers to own/drive an EV, that's a matter of taste here. Drive a Rolls Royce if you prefer. But there's no real economic advantage here for EVs.

I am guessing if you drive 20K miles a year, you are not getting 15 years out of the battery pack. The more you use and charge the pack has an effect on it's life. Though CGT has solar, so she charges it with that saving money vs metered electric.

 

[Ken555]

OK, I see what you are saying. I don't think most people think of implicit subsidies as actual subsidies since their isn't direct financial support. I think people know that there are environmental impacts to oil and natural gas.

It's good to occasionally point out the obvious, especially to those who only mention the topic about the one they're complaining about and ignore the one they prefer.

I'm not sure there has been a scientific analysis done on which (EV, hybrid, or IEC) has higher implicit subsidies.

I think that's a good question. Regardless, my point was made by simply pointing out what you and I would consider obvious... that there are significant subsidies to and due to the oil and gas industries. These subsidies simply cannot be ignored when others comment negatively about the EV subsidies.

 

[Ken555]

I am guessing if you drive 20K miles a year, you are not getting 15 years out of the battery pack. The more you use and charge the pack has an effect on it's life. Though CGT has solar, so she charges it with that saving money vs metered electric.

It seems ~300,000 miles is not unheard of, so 20k x 15 is a reasonable expectation.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-battery-last/

How Long Does A Tesla Battery Last? The Surprising Truth About Tesla Battery Lifespan

Purchasing a Tesla for the first time brings excitement and plenty of questions, and the largest question is often how long you should expect the battery to last. Combustion engines can last anywhere from 100,000 to 1,000,000 miles with proper maintenance and care, but when it comes to a car...

carbuzz.com

 

[CalGalTraveler]

So, EVs don't pay tolls in CA? They probably cause more road wear than ICE cars due to the weight. No wonder CA is $68 Billion over budget.

LA area has bad smog with poor health impacts and they are trying to provide incentives to reduce smog. For example it has been said that living in Riverside County is like smoking a pack or two of cigarettes a day.

Commuter lanes are a revenue center. Prints money for a lane that was previously freeway lane and funds the development. They also have surge pricing. I saw one the other day was $10.50 in the Silicon Valley. If you need to get to a meeting on time or don't want to be stuck in traffic for 2 hours it is worth it. It's evil genius really. Letting some EVs through is NBD and supports the incentives to reduce smog and rely less on oil. I imagine they will go after this on EVs someday.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Interesting analysis. Have you factored in the 30%* Federal Tax Credit for purchase of an EV?

In addition have you evaluated installing solar at 30%* Federal Tax credit? Texas surely would provide a lot of free kw sunshine for recharging at home.

* AFAIK it is 30% but haven't purchased recently so could vary. I presume TX doesn't provide any state incentives given its heavy ties to oil industry.

Those are both capital costs, not ongoing costs.