Hawaiian Electric provides update on Lahaina fires, response

[emeryjre]

Aloha,
My daughter pointed me to this web page https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-real-cause-of-maui-wildfire-disaster.html
I found the analysis and many of the comments illuminating.
I wasn't sure which thread would be the best to post it in, but chose this one.
Jack

Very good article and analysis
But no mention of the laser/energy beams from space and their contribution to the disaster

 

[Mongoose]

I'm not seeing much regarding the reignition or second afternoon blaze. It seems like so many errors were made that day.

 

[Tamaradarann]

How is it that the most advanced early warning system in the country, which is tested monthly, was never activated?

Do we ALL KNOW what we need to do when the warning system is activated. We have been in Kauai and Honolulu when the sirens have sounded for real for Tsunami warnings. We were on the first floor of a timeshare in Kauai when it happened and we HAD TO EVACUATE to higher ground. We were on the 16th floor of a timeshare in Waikiki when it happened another time and we didn't have to evacuate, but others who were on lower floors had to evacuate.

I don't know about what the rules are for evacuation for fires in the area and where does one go? We live on the 14th floor of a buidling and if the sirens sounded we wouldn't go anywhere. Evacuation is not always simple when the sirens sound.

 

[Brunkild]

Aloha,
My daughter pointed me to this web page https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-real-cause-of-maui-wildfire-disaster.html
I found the analysis and many of the comments illuminating.
I wasn't sure which thread would be the best to post it in, but chose this one.
Jack

Thanks for posting, i doubt this will become mainstream knowledge, as well as Hawaiian Electric had the power off when the 2nd fire near Lahainaluna Road began.

 

[daventrina]

How is it that the most advanced early warning system in the country, which is tested monthly, was never activated?

Because the guy in charge (used to be in charge - now terminated) decided not to turn it on

 

[emeryjre]

Do we ALL KNOW what we need to do when the warning system is activated. We have been in Kauai and Honolulu when the sirens have sounded for real for Tsunami warnings. We were on the first floor of a timeshare in Kauai when it happened and we HAD TO EVACUATE to higher ground. We were on the 16th floor of a timeshare in Waikiki when it happened another time and we didn't have to evacuate, but others who were on lower floors had to evacuate.

I don't know about what the rules are for evacuation for fires in the area and where does one go? We live on the 14th floor of a buidling and if the sirens sounded we wouldn't go anywhere. Evacuation is not always simple when the sirens sound.

Wasn't there some concern about turning on the warning system and people would go the wrong way
Wasn't the system designed as an early warning for Tsunamis.
You don't head to the beach if you think there is a Tsunami coming

 

[1Kflyerguy]

Aloha,
My daughter pointed me to this web page https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-real-cause-of-maui-wildfire-disaster.html
I found the analysis and many of the comments illuminating.
I wasn't sure which thread would be the best to post it in, but chose this one.
Jack

Interesting blog. I am not knowledgeable enough to gauge the validity, but it sounds reasonable...

 

[daventrina]

Aloha,
My daughter pointed me to this web page https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-real-cause-of-maui-wildfire-disaster.html
I found the analysis and many of the comments illuminating.
I wasn't sure which thread would be the best to post it in, but chose this one.
Jack

Glad you were able to dig this up, Mahalo

This is exactly right. I've said this from the very beginning. Any pilot should be able to figure this out.

What he pointed out in the article, but didn't really address is how the specific valley terrain directly upwind from Lahaina focused much of that energy directly at Lahaina.

Meanwhile, on Hawai`i Island while Kawaihae was having 80-90 mph winds... above the Kona airport, we were having a mild to moderate breeze.

 

[daventrina]

Wasn't there some concern about turning on the warning system and people would go the wrong way
Wasn't the system designed as an early warning for Tsunamis.
You don't head to the beach if you think there is a Tsunami coming

Seriously? if you hear a siren and run out side and see a wall of flames barreling down the hill, you are going to ruin into the flames?

 

[Mongoose]

Do we ALL KNOW what we need to do when the warning system is activated. We have been in Kauai and Honolulu when the sirens have sounded for real for Tsunami warnings. We were on the first floor of a timeshare in Kauai when it happened and we HAD TO EVACUATE to higher ground. We were on the 16th floor of a timeshare in Waikiki when it happened another time and we didn't have to evacuate, but others who were on lower floors had to evacuate.

I don't know about what the rules are for evacuation for fires in the area and where does one go? We live on the 14th floor of a buidling and if the sirens sounded we wouldn't go anywhere. Evacuation is not always simple when the sirens sound.

As someone with 30 years experience in safety you always ring the alarm except for special circumstances like a bomb threat or active assailant where you think the occupants are being targeted.

 

[emeryjre]

Wasn't there some concern about turning on the warning system and people would go the wrong way
Wasn't the system designed as an early warning for Tsunamis.
You don't head to the beach if you think there is a Tsunami coming

I have no idea what the person in charge of sounding the alarm was thinking
I have no idea where the person was located in relation to the fire
There will be a very comprehensive review of how things developed and progressed on that fateful, tragic day
Obviously some things should have been different
How obvious they were at the time is the real question
What appeared to be the correct action at the time, will probably be found to have been a problem
Hindsight is always 20-20

 

[ScoopKona]

Wasn't there some concern about turning on the warning system and people would go the wrong way

That's what he said. "People are trained to run for the hills if the sirens are turned on." What a load of excrement. It makes absolutely no sense today, yesterday, when he said it, or when he either forgot or made the worst-ever executive decision not to bother with the sirens. Nobody would run into an inferno. Dumbest excuse I've ever heard.

As for the sirens, the system isn't as robust as claimed. Many of the sirens in my area have been broken for years. "We'll get around to it."

Lahaina had a near miss in 2018. Near miss isn't accurate, because 20 houses burned, there were some injuries. It resulted in more than $4 million in damages. Link here. The only reason that fire didn't burn Lahaina to the ground is that the winds died down at the last minute. After the 2018 fire, irate citizens demanded answers and a plan to deal with fires. Watch the entire 3-hour meeting, here. Shortly after that fire there were several newspaper articles which warned this exact fire could happen again. These are easily found by Googling "2018 Lahaina Wildfire."

 

[Mongoose]

In response to not sounding the alarm.

“I was flabberghasted,” said one resident.

“We are not dumb. People would have known what to do.”

 

[emeryjre]

As I said earlier, hindsight is 20-20
people making the decisions will have to live with them for the rest of their lives
The whole thing is a tragedy of inaction, based on "it will never happen here" type of thinking
I would like to think this will change things and events like this will never happen again
That is wishful thinking
The next tragedy is out there waiting to happen

 

[sponger76]

As I said earlier, hindsight is 20-20
people making the decisions will have to live with them for the rest of their lives
The whole thing is a tragedy of inaction, based on "it will never happen here" type of thinking
I would like to think this will change things and events like this will never happen again
That is wishful thinking
The next tragedy is out there waiting to happen

I agree with all of those points.

In addition to the reconstruction being to modern fire codes, it would be nice if they could start rehabilitating all the vacant land with native vegetation (preferably trees) that is a little less wildfire-prone, rather than letting it continue to be overrun with the current invasive grasses that helped spark the ignition and accelerate the spread. I'm not going to hold my breath though. I wonder if they'll at least start burying some of the power lines.

 

[ScoopKona]

people making the decisions will have to live with them for the rest of their lives

I'll wager they compartmentalize and rationalize their decisions. "We couldn't have known this would happen, again, so soon!"

 

[Tamaradarann]

As someone with 30 years experience in safety you always ring the alarm except for special circumstances like a bomb threat or active assailant where you think the occupants are being targeted.

My comment wasn't suggesting that the alarm shouldn't have been rung. I was just mentioning that when the alarm is rung everyone should know what it is being rung for and what to do. We have been in 2 actual tsunami warnings so we know that if that siren rings we need to take action. For us it would be to shelter in the 14th floor of our building. Those on low floors need to evaluate to higher ground. (By the way the law says that those below the 3rd floor need to evacuate, however, we have learned at the Bishop Museum that to be totally safe you need to evacuate if you are below the 6th Floor if at sea level)

However, if the warning siren rang for a brush fire I wouldn't know what to do or would I need to do anything.

This is NOT an intuitive situation.

 

[ScoopKona]

However, if the warning siren rang for a brush fire I wouldn't know what to do or would I need to do anything.

This is NOT an intuitive situation.

But you would be awake and if you looked outside, you would realize that [excrement] just got real.

I'll bet most of the deceased died in their sleep with no idea they were ever in danger.

 

[slip]

But you would be awake and if you looked outside, you would realize that [excrement] just got real.

I'll bet most of the deceased died in their sleep with no idea they were ever in danger.

The fire happened at 5pm. I don't think most people were sleeping.

 

[BJRSanDiego]

But you would be awake and if you looked outside, you would realize that [excrement] just got real.

I'll bet most of the deceased died in their sleep with no idea they were ever in danger.

I agree.

When we toured Santa Rosa, the fire had taken out the cell towers so "reverse 911" wasn't working.

Sadly we saw the remains of houses burned to the ground with hulks of cars in the garage and hulks of cars still in the driveway. We knew that those were houses where the occupants didn't make it out alive. There were (too) many of them. Houses with no cars on premises probably made it out alive.

I guess that I am a bit of a survivalist. When we were sheltering-in-place in the 2003 and 2007 California fires, I was continuously monitoring the TV (24 hour coverage), Fire dept. radio frequencies, plus Ham radio plus checking wind direction. On the 2007 fire, we got a "reverse 911" call telling us to evacuate and telling us when the fire would overrun our neighborhood. We chose to shelter-in-place. At night, I set the alarm for every 2 hours to climb to the roof of my house to check to see where the flames were in relation to where I was. Yes, we could see flames from about a half dozen fires. I was packed and ready to go. We live in fire country but have at least a 100 foot defensible space (that means nothing flammable within 100 feet) and the only exposed wood (flammables) is on the leeward side of our house. Plus we have "Barricade" fire gel ready to be deployed. Otherwise everything is stucco and non-flammable. We even have spark arrestors on all of our attic vents.. Plus I have fixed aerial sprayers, fireproof clothing, supplimental O2 and a gas-powered water pump drawing on 20,000 gallon pool, etc. Our worst-case contingency plan was to go in the swimming pool under a garbage can with a tank of oxygen waiting for the short-term "flash-over". I've had hands-on fire training and personally put out a couple of 1-2 acre brush fires, but still respect and fear the potential danger. So, if it made more sense to leave, I was ready to do so in a heartbeat. BTW, I also had access to a 5 acre (next door) property that was stripped bare of flammables). Plan: drive there. Watch as the storm of sparks fly by and wait for it to flash over. That is what our fire dept. recommended. In San Diego for both fires we had about 1/2 million acres burned but our death toll was a small fraction of those tragically lose in Lahaina. That was because of enough time to evacuate, defensible space and preparation.

While we were prepared, the sad thing is the way too many people in Lahaina were either totally unaware of the danger, learned of the fires too late or were trapped in their cars in a total grid lock situation.

 

[Mongoose]

My comment wasn't suggesting that the alarm shouldn't have been rung. I was just mentioning that when the alarm is rung everyone should know what it is being rung for and what to do. We have been in 2 actual tsunami warnings so we know that if that siren rings we need to take action. For us it would be to shelter in the 14th floor of our building. Those on low floors need to evaluate to higher ground. (By the way the law says that those below the 3rd floor need to evacuate, however, we have learned at the Bishop Museum that to be totally safe you need to evacuate if you are below the 6th Floor if at sea level)

However, if the warning siren rang for a brush fire I wouldn't know what to do or would I need to do anything.

This is NOT an intuitive situation.

You would be awake and alerted to a problem and be able to check the news.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Wasn't there some concern about turning on the warning system and people would go the wrong way
Wasn't the system designed as an early warning for Tsunamis.
You don't head to the beach if you think there is a Tsunami coming

You would be awake and alerted to a problem and be able to check the news.

Being awake is certainly an important factor. Checking the news perhaps can help. However, the news is NOT always very specific and understandable as far as location. I could see a situation where people that didn't need to evacuate clogging the roads and as others have said causing people to die in their cars.

I am not that familiar with exact locations in Maui but in Honolulu if the sirens sounded for brush fires I would have no clue what to do. The winds blow very stongly where we live in Waikiki from the mountains to the ocean and we often smell smoke from fires inland. If the news gave the indiction that people should evacuate without being very specfic on neighborhoods I could see people getting in their cars in Waikiki and Downtown clogging the roads and heading toward areas where the brush fires are. Obviously if you see the flames coming toward you or your house you need to evacuate, but I don't think that one needs the siren warnings in those instances.

As they say hindsight is 20-20. Tsunami warnings alert you to move away from the Ocean to higher ground. That seems to be intuitive common sense. Evacuation for fires seems a bit less intuitive and common sense.

 

[Mongoose]

Being awake is certainly an important factor. Checking the news perhaps can help. However, the news is NOT always very specific and understandable as far as location. I could see a situation where people that didn't need to evacuate clogging the roads and as others have said causing people to die in their cars.

I am not that familiar with exact locations in Maui but in Honolulu if the sirens sounded for brush fires I would have no clue what to do. The winds blow very stongly where we live in Waikiki from the mountains to the ocean and we often smell smoke from fires inland. If the news gave the indiction that people should evacuate without being very specfic on neighborhoods I could see people getting in their cars in Waikiki and Downtown clogging the roads and heading toward areas where the brush fires are. Obviously if you see the flames coming toward you or your house you need to evacuate, but I don't think that one needs the siren warnings in those instances.

As they say hindsight is 20-20. Tsunami warnings alert you to move away from the Ocean to higher ground. That seems to be intuitive common sense. Evacuation for fires seems a bit less intuitive and common sense.

I’m not a fan of people being reckless with others safety. Alert people and treat them like adults. There are never guarantees, but it is better to be informed.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I’m not a fan of people being reckless with others safety. Alert people and treat them like adults. There are never guarantees, but it is better to be informed.

I am also not a fan of people being reckless with others safety nor I am a fan of being reckless with my and my families safety. I am not suggesting that the alarm shouldn't have been rung. Nor I am suggesting that people should not be treated as adults. I am suggesting that better information and direction is needed so that people make INFORMED decisions instead of doing whatever they think on their own is the right decision without information. I am informed about evacuating during a Tsunami warning. I am not informed about evacuating during a brush fire. Do all the people in Maui, West Maui, and Lahaina know that the sirens can sound for a brush fire evaculation? Are all the people in Maui, West Maui and Lahaina informed about evacuating during a brush fire and what direction they should go?

While I have been to Lahaina and have stayed in the area a number of times I would not have known what to do if the sirens sounded for a brush fire.

 

[ScoopKona]

While I have been to Lahaina and have stayed in the area a number of times I would not have known what to do if the sirens sounded for a brush fire.

I think the chances are reasonably high that you would not have run straight into the raging inferno.