End of Beta vs VHS (actually XM vs Sirius)

[timeos2]

A merger between XM & Sirius satellite radio will put an end to the "which is better" question. It is planned to be completed by late 2007 or early 2008. While I happened to prefer XM overall, and I hope the commercial free music as they present it remains intact I will enjoy the ability to get all NFL games that was previously limited to Sirius.

 

[Steamboat Bill]

This is good news for consumers...but get ready for a monopoly price hike...Howard Stern needs to get paid.

 

[ricoba]

I like my XM too, I just hope they don't up the subscription fee.

I guess we will have to all get new receivers as well.

 

[JeffW]

I haven't read much details, but here's the impression I have:

- NO new equipment required. Most satellite radio is probably on auto factory stereos, I see little chance that will be replaced. XM and Sirius already have their existing satellites and support hardware, I also don't see them being replaced.
What I think you'll see a convergance on is PROGRAMMING, not hardware. Right now Sirius has Howard Stern (channels 101 & 102?), XM doesn't. If the merger goes thru, HS would be on XM 101 & 102. That would be the same for the remaining unique programming: only one as Oprah, Nascar, NFL, etc. After the merger, they would be shared. The rest of the progamming is pretty generic, and over time they'd probably settle on one station (ie. one 80's station) that would be broadcast on both systems.

- the merger isn't a given. Apparently there were some pretty strong words in the original satellite licences that were supposed to prevent one company from having both licences (ie. they wanted competition). It still needs to be seen how they are going to work around that. The NAB (National Association of Broadcasters) supposedly also will likely oppose it.

- rates will be a real uncertainty. If I'm correct in my assumption that most hardware is auto radios, then bidding a lot for programming is wasteful. I like H/S, and would listen to him on satellite, but my car (Acura) has an XM radio, so XM programming is what I get. Not much different from other provider non-choices: I live in Phila - if I want cable TV, I have to get Comcast, there is no other provider (I'm excluding satellite TV and Verizon FIOS). In that sense, Sirius paying $500 over 5 years to get HS does nothing to win me as a subscriber (unless I buy a 2nd receiver for them only). On the other hand, there could be lots of XM radios in auto's that are subscribed to, because their owners don't like the XM programming. In this case, adding key elements from Sirius (and vice-versa) might add new subscribers.


Jeff

 

[ricoba]

Well I hope we don't have to buy new equipment, but I heard on the tv or radio that the receivers couldn't pick up the other companies signals.....but I hope you are correct

 

[JeffW]

Obviously there's no efficiency in consolidation if they still have to operate all existing satellite's, ground stations, etc. However, I just don't see how they could pick one or the other. It's not like moving to a new cell phone technology, where you can just go to the store, get a new phone, swap your phone number, and be done. If everyone started using say Sirius hardware tomorrow, you could say in 7-10 years, maybe there won't be a lot of XM in use, and it can be turned off. In the short term, I don't see that happening.

That's why I think the only realistic solution is to consolidate down to a common programming (common channels), which would then be broadcast over both systems.

Jeff

 

[timeos2]

Many things have to happen

Obviously there's no efficiency in consolidation if they still have to operate all existing satellite's, ground stations, etc. However, I just don't see how they could pick one or the other. It's not like moving to a new cell phone technology, where you can just go to the store, get a new phone, swap your phone number, and be done. If everyone started using say Sirius hardware tomorrow, you could say in 7-10 years, maybe there won't be a lot of XM in use, and it can be turned off. In the short term, I don't see that happening.

That's why I think the only realistic solution is to consolidate down to a common programming (common channels), which would then be broadcast over both systems.

Jeff

It is too early to say for sure what will happen but a wholesale conversion to one system or the other is not in the cards for a long time if ever. In the first comments made the future CEO of the combined company said they would work for a new chip capable of receiving both signals. Since that would help utilize the very costly equipment already in place it makes sense. The combination of programming is a given as that is where much of the savings in combined operations would have to come from.

 

[Maddle]

I never did buy into the satellite radio choice, because I couldn't decide between baseball and football which was more desirable to me. Doesn't that sound silly? Maybe if I wait a little longer, I won't have to choose after all.

I am acquainted with someone that bought a car with Sirius and had free programming for a period of time, and then without any research at all, extended the contract. A couple months later, she was quite put out that on a long car trip she could not find one baseball game on the entire spectrum. I said, "Well, no - you have to have the other guys for that - THEY have the MLB contract."

Poor thing, I thought her head would explode. I never did understand why she didn't check that out before she spent even more money on that service.

Maddle

 

[bogey21]

...I hope we don't have to buy new equipment, but I heard on the tv or radio that the receivers couldn't pick up the other companies signals...

This will be a major problem until satellite radio receivers are modified to pick up both XM and Sirius' signals. I hear it is being worked on diligently.

GEORGE

PS - I love my satellite (Sirius) radio!! It makes long trips go so much faster.

 

[Cathy in Boston]

So now we can have Howard AND baseball! Awesome!

 

[Arkansas Winger]

This will be a major problem until satellite radio receivers are modified to pick up both XM and Sirius' signals. I hear it is being worked on diligently.

GEORGE

PS - I love my satellite (Sirius) radio!! It makes long trips go so much faster.

All they have to do is combine their programing and send it to both satellites and bingo, you have it all no matter which receiver you are using.

 

[Maddle]

I don't want to sound dumb - but is the dual satellite concept part of the deficit problem...or do they not cost very much to keep up in the sky now that they are launched?

or is it the talent contracts and exclusive rights to NBA, NFL, MLB, NCAA - etc?

In other words, if they combine their subscription income, is there a chance of breaking even? or do they need to increase the subscriber base?

Maddle

 

[JeffW]

My assumption is that the majority of cost savings would come from consolidated programming. Just take Howard Stern or Nascar for example - how much extra did Sirius have to pay for them to keep them from XM? Competition is both good and bad: on the good side, it can end up keeping consumer subscription prices down, but on the bad side, it can increase the cost of programming.

Jeff

 

[Mosca]

Although I'm a big Steelers fan, the football on radio never appealed to me, because it's only once a week and I'm invariably at home watching the game in Sunday! The baseball is more important because there is a game every day during the season (except all star break of course) and it's more likely that I'm in the car when a game is on.

That being said, I'll be happy to see a merging of programming. I have XM, but Sirius has a classic jazz station (swing, dixieland, New Orleans, etc) and their classic rock station is FAR better than XM's Deep Tracks. (Who ever thought Wishbone Ash was worth resurrecting? They sucked in the '70s, they suck now.)


Tom