Comparing Covid in USA and Sweden, Two Years Later

[CO skier]

Does anyone remember when the American politicians listened to American medical experts two years ago and shut down the economy? Does anyone remember the governors' mask mandates in some states that followed the reopening, and allowing planes (no masks required at that time) to fly but closing bars and restaurants? All in some attempt to "control" the spread of Covid?

Does anyone remember the diametrically opposed approach of politicians in Sweden who listened to their medical experts? And what a pariah they became as a result? (Sweden did not even close their bars and restaurants.)

Now, two years later, the results of those decisions over two years may be assessed.

2022-02-23 Sweden Population 10.3 million, Covid Deaths 16933, Covid Death Rate 0.16%

2022-02-23 USA Population 328 million, Covid Deaths 939,064, Covid Death Rate 0.29%

Sweden - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins

Sweden - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[PigsDad]

This belongs in the Covid forum.

 

[davidvel]

Yes, I remember. And I remember arguing that Sweden's plan seemed better.

I don't know now, whether Sweden's death rate would be even lower if they had done masks and isolation like we did. Such differences in about everything make comparison of the two cohorts difficult.

That being said, even within the U.S. the response was significantly different among the states. There are many states, when compared to Sweden, that are similar in rates:
Sweden .19
Hawaii/Vermont .09
UT/MI/OR/AK/OR/NH/D.C. .13-.18
NB/NC/CA/VA/CO/WI .20-.22

 

[CO skier]

This belongs in the Covid forum.

Sorry, I meant to post it there, but missed dropping to the sub-forum.

 

[CO skier]

Yes, I remember. And I remember arguing that Sweden's plan seemed better.

I don't know now, whether Sweden's death rate would be even lower if they had done masks and isolation like we did. Such differences in about everything make comparison of the two cohorts difficult.

That being said, even within the U.S. the response was significantly different among the states. There are many states, when compared to Sweden, that are similar in rates:
Sweden .19
Hawaii/Vermont .09
UT/MI/OR/AK/OR/NH/D.C. .13-.18
NB/NC/CA/VA/CO/WI .20-.22

Oregon and California had some of the strictest mandates and closures throughout the pandemic; did not seem to make much difference versus Sweden's open society/rely on citizens approach.

 

[CO skier]

A year and a half of hindsight certainly provides a different appreciation of Sweden's approach at the time from when this article posted on TUG in August, 2020.

The true picture: Has Sweden emerged as paragon or pariah in the corona sweepstakes?

With the world on pause with coronavirus, Sweden’s unique approach has drawn intense global scrutiny, not all of it complimentary. It refused to impose tough lockdown, kept primary schools and core economic activities functioning, issued...

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Every country made mistakes, but lockdowns were ineffective, big mistakes that did more damage than good. We are still learning about the damage school closings did on the education of children, and if any benefit was worth the cost.

"Chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell explained that lockdowns have no “historical scientific basis”. “Each country has to reach ‘herd immunity’ in one way or another, and we are going to reach it in a different way.”

Swenden's politicians listened to the science.

 

[cman]

2022-02-23 Sweden Population 10.3 million, Covid Deaths 16933, Covid Death Rate 0.16%

2022-02-23 USA Population 328 million, Covid Deaths 939,064, Covid Death Rate 0.29%

Sweden - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins

Sweden - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Any attempt at a direct comparison is a fool's folly. Sweden has about the same population of Los Angeles County and had the distintive advantage of being able to monitor and adjust their mitigation efforts nationaly. The US on the other hand, relied on our individual states, and in some case, counties to formulate our response. We don't have a national pandemic response plan. If we were to have another pandemic after we're done with this one, the result would be the same.

 

[CO skier]

Any attempt at a direct comparison is a fool's folly.

I think you missed the point that the two scientific and medical approaches in the two countries were at opposite ends of the spectrum. If there was any value to lockdowns, it should have led to at least an order of magnitude difference in death rates. Not only was this not the case, but the country that did not lockdown ultimately suffered less than the country that took severe, but relatively (and scientifically) ineffective, measures to "control" an epidemic that proved to be "uncontrollable" and just added emotional suffering on top of the pandemic.

 

[Brett]

I think you missed the point that the two scientific and medical approaches in the two countries were at opposite ends of the spectrum. If there was any value to lockdowns, it should have led to at least an order of magnitude difference in death rates. Not only was this not the case, but the country that did not lockdown ultimately suffered less than the country that took severe, but relatively (and scientifically) ineffective, measures to "control" an epidemic that proved to be "uncontrollable" and just added emotional suffering on top of the pandemic.

Norway versus Sweden: A case study in COVID-19 response
https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/norway-and-sweden/125378/

Why did things go so wrong in Sweden?

 

["Roger"]

cman is correct, you are comparing countries with completely different cultures, economies, etc.

How has Sweden done compared with its neighboring Scandavian countries which share much more in the lines of culture, geographic isolation, etc. What you see below is the number of deaths per one million:

Sweden 1671
Denmark 776
Finland 426
Norway 291

While I haven't looked up recently, at least three or months ago, the Swedish economy took an admittedly marginal, but slightly bigger hit than any of its Scandinavian neighbors. In other words, its open policy did not lead to economic prosperity.

Finally, one more comparison. The US versus (lockdown) Canada, deaths per one million:

US 2892
Canada 947

I am guessing you are going to complain that it is unfair to compare the US and Canada. Then please explain why it is fair to compare Sweden with a country that it has almost nothing in common with.

 

[MrockStar]

Compare one state, Michigan and Sweden have about the same population, we locked down pretty hard here compared to them our economy suffered severely compared to there's our kids and schools suffered severely compared to theirs. Our drug and alcohol and suicide rates skyrocketed compared to theirs. Two years of data gives a lot clearer picture of what happened and which policies better severed the people of each country.

 

["Roger"]

Yes, Detroit and Stockholm are very similar cities. Lots of Swedes in Detroit.

Honestly Allen, cherry picking trying to prove a preconceived idea.

 

[ScoopKona]

I will never understand why the metric for "the alt-right" is "deaths per capita."

That's really freaking stupid. Appallingly stupid. "The moon landings were a hoax and the Earth is flat" stupid.

In the developed world, there are only two metrics that matter -- infections per capita; and the mortality rate of those who find themselves infected. The first number shows the quality of the average citizen. The higher that percentage, the lower the average IQ.

The second shows the quality of that country's health system.

Naturally, alt-right dingbats are going to pull out San Marino or some other micro nation and demand, "See! These people have a WAY higher percentage of infections than the US. 'Murica!"

Thus proving that math is also not their long suit.

 

[MrockStar]

Yes, Detroit and Stockholm are very similar cities. Lots of Swedes in Detroit.

Honestly Allen, cherry picking trying to prove a preconceived idea.

Look at the numbers of each category for both Michigan and Sweden, then come back and talk to me with facts not your personal views about it. Then we can have a meaningful adult discussion about those facts/data.

 

["Roger"]

Okay, I give. You think a comparison between Sweden and Michigan has more validity than a comparison between Norway and Sweden. There is nothing that I can say to that.

PS - Michigan and Quebec have the same size population. Total deaths:

Quebec 13,900
Michigan 34370

 

[MrockStar]

Okay, I give. You think a comparison between Sweden and Michigan has more validity than a comparison between Norway and Sweden. There is nothing that I can say to that.

PS - Michigan and Quebec have the same size population. Total deaths:

Quebec 13,900
Michigan 34370

I guess our lockdowns masking and virtual school didn't help much here in Michigan compared to Quebec.

 

[Brett]

Okay, I give. You think a comparison between Sweden and Michigan has more validity than a comparison between Norway and Sweden. There is nothing that I can say to that.

PS - Michigan and Quebec have the same size population. Total deaths:

Quebec 13,900
Michigan 34370

And countries with universal healthcare for all it's citizens ....

Norway versus Sweden: A case study in COVID-19 response
https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/norway-and-sweden/125378/

 

[Pompey Family]

You think a comparison between Sweden and Michigan has more validity than a comparison between Norway and Sweden.

Are the recording methods for infections, deaths etc the same between Norway and Sweden? That's the problem with comparing countries, different methods of recording data make comparisons pointless.

 

["Roger"]

Are the recording methods for infections, deaths etc the same between Norway and Sweden? That's the problem with comparing countries, different methods of recording data make comparisons pointless.

Why is this comment directed at me and not at all the comparisons in this thread? Are the comparisons celebrating non-interference valid, but those questioning it invalid?

 

[ScoopKona]

Are the recording methods for infections, deaths etc the same between Norway and Sweden? That's the problem with comparing countries, different methods of recording data make comparisons pointless.

Not pointless. Just with a small margin of error.

When comparing large populations, there is going to be a margin of error. The person who had Covid but technically died of a heart attack. The false positives. The people who rolled snake-eyes with the vaccine and died of anaphylactic shock. There's a small amount of uncertainty cooked into all broad-brush demographic comparisons.

That doesn't mean comparison is pointless.

The three worst countries in the "50 million plus population, developed world" division are France, the UK and the US. The cases per million in those three countries are 343K, 274K and 240K, respectively.

Contrasting, Japan, which is one of the most hygienic places I've ever visited, has 37K cases per million -- 10-to-15% of the case load per capita. *THAT* is what sound policy and a thoughtful population looks like when converting to numbers.

The countries with the most sickness all suffer from a combination of bad public policy; and a citizenry that can't stay out of the pub long enough to put a stop to transmission.

 

[Pompey Family]

The three worst countries in the "50 million plus population, developed world" division are France, the UK and the US.

How are Covid deaths quantified between those three countries? What about the figures from China, Russia et al, can they be trusted?

 

[ScoopKona]

How are Covid deaths quantified between those three countries? What about the figures from China, Russia et al, can they be trusted?

Do you consider China and Russia "the developed world?"

As for how are the deaths quantified -- IT. DOES. NOT. MATTER.

Even if the margin of error between countries is +/- 5%, it still shows that being more like the Japanese is a better strategy than being like the Americans.

Every once in awhile, somebody hits a jackpot on a slot machine. But that doesn't make slot machines a good investment vehicle -- unless you own the machines. And it's the same with these Covid numbers. Even if the numbers are off by a little, it doesn't negate the vast gulf between the nations which are managing this pandemic well versus those which are not.

 

[Pompey Family]

Do you consider China and Russia "the developed world?"

Yes! China is leading the way in technology, their economy is strong and their investment in infrastructure across the world is nothing short of ambitious. Russia's economy may well be tanking but it's far from an undeveloped nation. An example of an undeveloped nation would be somewhere like South Sudan.

 

[Pompey Family]

Why is this comment directed at me and not at all the comparisons in this thread? Are the comparisons celebrating non-interference valid, but those questioning it invalid?

I couldn't be bothered to quote all the other posts, yours just happened to be at the end of the thread, nothing personal.

 

[Brett]

Two years later .--- going on three


Did Sweden beat the pandemic by refusing to lock down? No, its record is disastrous
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-03-31/sweden-covid-policy-was-a-disaster

Throughout much of the pandemic, Sweden has stood out for its ostensibly successful effort to beat COVID-19 while avoiding the harsh lockdowns and social distancing rules imposed on residents of other developed nations. Swedish residents were able to enjoy themselves at bars and restaurants, their schools remained open, and somehow their economy thrived and they remained healthy. So say their fans, especially on the anti-lockdown right.

A new study by European scientific researchers buries all those claims in the ground. Published in Nature, the study paints a devastating picture of Swedish policies and their effects.

The lead author of the report, epidemiologist Nele Brusselaers, is associated with the prestigious Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm; her collaborators are affiliated with research institutes in Sweden, Norway and Belgium.

The details of Swedish policies as described by Brusselaers and her co-authors are horrifying. The Swedish government, they report, deliberately tried to use children to spread COVID-19 and denied care to seniors and those suffering from other conditions.


The government’s goal appeared geared to produce herd immunity — a level of infection that would create a natural barrier to the pandemic’s spread without inconveniencing middle- and upper-class citizens; the government never set forth that goal publicly, but internal government emails unearthed by the Swedish press revealed that herd immunity was the strategy behind closed doors.

Explicit or not, the effort failed. “Projected ‘natural herd-immunity’ levels are still nowhere in sight,” the researchers wrote, adding that herd immunity “does not seem within reach without widespread vaccinations” and “may be unlikely” under any circumstances.

That’s a reproach to the signers of the Great Barrington Declaration, a widely criticized white paper endorsing the quest for herd immunity and co-written by Martin Kulldorf, a Sweden-born Harvard professor who has explicitly defended his native country’s policies.

The country’s treatment of the elderly and patients with co-morbidities such as obesity was especially appalling.