2022 and the uncertainty of making reservations

[dougp26364]

On the surface, I’d like to believe the majority of travel restrictions will be lifted. But the uncertainty remains as the vaccine roll out has been nothing more than a cluster duck and state governments continue to balance safety with commerce.

I had planned to take an Alaskan cruise, but that’s going to be kicked down the road for at least another year. California and Hawaii still feel risky.

I had hoped things would become a little clearer by now. I want to believe we’ll be close enough to normal this time next year, but I still find there’s enough uncertainty that our planning is being affected.

So what are your thoughts on vacation planning for 2022?

 

[tiel]

We’re going to go ahead and reserve where we’d like to go, as though there were no virus issues. If things don’t improve to a good comfort level for us, we’ll just cancel soon enough to avoid/minimize any penalties.

 

[Luanne]

We have a week reserved at our home resort on Maui in March 2022. If we still don't feel like we want to travel at that point, we'll cancel.

 

[silentg]

This can’t last that long 2022?

 

[Luanne]

This can’t last that long 2022?

Don't be so sure. I've seen predictions that it could last into 2022. I've seen predictions that Covid might always be with us. That's why the vaccine is such a big deal. And even if Covid gets under control it could take well into 2022 for some places to return to some semblance of normal.

 

[Fasttr]

The big unknown is how effective the vaccines will be on the mutated variants of the virus.

 

[silentg]

I’m trying to be optimistic. But you are probably right

 

[JIMinNC]

I saw an opinion in the last week or so from someone with a seemingly qualified title/expertise that even with a vaccine, travel, restaurants, and large gatherings might be impacted until 2023 or 2024, or longer. The logic was that even with a 95% effective vaccine, until 90+% get the vaccine, we could still have over 100k fatalities per year. Not sure how they calculated that, but it was not encouraging for a return to normal. The person said we are vastly overestimating our ability to convince 90% of the population to get a vaccine.

I hope he’s just a natural pessimist. I can’t imagine dealing with this for three more years.

 

[Superchief]

I will continue to travel and take reasonable safety precautions. I plan to avoid international travel, states with crazy governors and high density. A vast majority of people I know who got Covid had minor symptoms and recovered quickly. I'm not going to continue to let my life be dictated by the slight risk of the more serious complications. Life is too short to skip another year.

 

[dougp26364]

The big unknown as how effective the vaccines will be on the mutated variants of the virus.

While this is a big question, you have to consider how the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines work. They are a messenger RNA vaccine that teach the immune system to react to the protein on the surface of the virus. That protein is the one that allows the virus to enter your cells and begin replication. So it teaches your body to recognize the protein, not necessarily the virus.

If the protein changes, the virus may not be able to enter your cells and infect you. If the virus mutates but keeps the same protein used to enter your cells, it won’t matter as it’s the protein, not the virus, that will trigger your immune system.

Of course this is assuming I’m understanding everything I’ve been told. It’s difficult to keep up since everything is moving/changing rapidly.

 

[Fasttr]

While this is a big question, you have to consider how the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines work. They are a messenger RNA vaccine that teach the immune system to react to the protein on the surface of the virus. That protein is the one that allows the virus to enter your cells and begin replication. So it teaches your body to recognize the protein, not necessarily the virus.

If the protein changes, the virus may not be able to enter your cells and infect you. If the virus mutates but keeps the same protein used to enter your cells, it won’t matter as it’s the protein, not the virus, that will trigger your immune system.

Of course this is assuming I’m understanding everything I’ve been told. It’s difficult to keep up since everything is moving/changing rapidly.

Seemingly so for the U.K. variant, but perhaps not so for the South African variant. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/south-africa-covid-strain-a-guide-to-what-you-need-to-know.html

That said, I’m rooting for you to be correct.

 

[ilene13]

We have some trips planned for 2021 and 2022. Although we have been vaccinated we may not do some of the 2021 trips!

 

[dioxide45]

We are only booking things last minute and within Florida. We do have a cruise booked for later this year to Bermuda (out of NY). It was a freebie cruise my wife earned. Not sure if it will sail. If it does, we just have to get to NY somehow. I don't see cruising starting any time soon. While the CDC no sail order was lifted under the current outgoing administration, that may change with the transition. Even with the no sail order lifted, we haven't seen any movement on North American cruises.

 

[dougp26364]

Seemingly so for the U.K. variant, but perhaps not so for the South African variant. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/south-africa-covid-strain-a-guide-to-what-you-need-to-know.html

That said, I’m rooting for you to be correct.

It appears the virus has already learned to say, “Hold my beer” to the previous versions of the virus.

I’m beginning to think 2022 is a little to soon to look at vacations in California. We’ve already written Hawaii off as it’s to far and to expensive to take a chance.

We had been thinking San Francisco and Washington DC. Instead it might look more like Florida and S. Carolina.

 

[pedro47]

No flying on an airplane, no road trip over three hours drive or cruising in 2021. We are only planning to visit our home resort in Williamsburg this year.

 

[Old Hickory]

If we're talking about 2022 then it will be the media and politicians who will be keeping you at home. Not science.

 

[NJMOM2]

I rescheduled our trip to Californian from May 2020 to May 2021. I'm beginning to think that within the next 8 weeks I am going have to cancel it again. I DON'T want any more holding points so I have to cancel before it hits the 60 day mark. I have more than enough holding points to use this year. The problem I might have is there is an encore package as part of the trip that has already been extended for a year. I hope they extend it again. I haven't even begun thinking of where I am going in 2022. California???

 

[Dean]

On the surface, I’d like to believe the majority of travel restrictions will be lifted. But the uncertainty remains as the vaccine roll out has been nothing more than a cluster duck and state governments continue to balance safety with commerce.

I had planned to take an Alaskan cruise, but that’s going to be kicked down the road for at least another year. California and Hawaii still feel risky.

I had hoped things would become a little clearer by now. I want to believe we’ll be close enough to normal this time next year, but I still find there’s enough uncertainty that our planning is being affected.

So what are your thoughts on vacation planning for 2022?

I think the best case scenario to get to herd immunity with the vaccine (around 80% vaccinated) will be mid to late 2022 at the earliest. Hopefully additional vaccines will shorten that timeline somewhat, we'll see. That said, we're planning to go the HHI this summer and next for a group.

 

[NboroGirl]

On the surface, I’d like to believe the majority of travel restrictions will be lifted. But the uncertainty remains as the vaccine roll out has been nothing more than a cluster duck and state governments continue to balance safety with commerce.

"cluster duck"!!!

 

[davidvel]

Seemingly so for the U.K. variant, but perhaps not so for the South African variant. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/south-africa-covid-strain-a-guide-to-what-you-need-to-know.html

That said, I’m rooting for you to be correct.

It would seem pretty easy to protect against these new giant viruses, just get a beekeeper hood or a flyswatter!

Scientist in a protective suit holds and compares two different Coronavirus of different color in his hands.
Aitor Diago | Moment | Getty Images

 

[dougp26364]

"cluster duck"!!!

Auto correct has yet to realize how rarely I talk about ducks

 

[JIMinNC]

I will continue to travel and take reasonable safety precautions. I plan to avoid international travel, states with crazy governors and high density. A vast majority of people I know who got Covid had minor symptoms and recovered quickly. I'm not going to continue to let my life be dictated by the slight risk of the more serious complications. Life is too short to skip another year.

That is sort of my thinking as well. Our next planned trip is Hawaii in October (delayed from about 12 days from now due to one of those unpredictable governors ), so we are hopeful things will have at least stabilized enough by then to make things somewhat more predictable. While I still expect October 2021 to look more like right now than 2019, I'm hoping the trip will be able to happen without too much uncertainty.

We recently were able to upgrade to Presidential, so some of those 30% discount inside 60-days points bookings at a few warm, accessible places in the MVC system also look very tempting for late February/early March. I'm already missing Hawaii and 80 degree temps in the winter, so some kind of reasonable facsimile for discounted points is very tempting.

 

[CPNY]

The big unknown is how effective the vaccines will be on the mutated variants of the virus.

Effective.

 

[rcv82]

I’m amazed at the pessimism in this thread. I believe (hope) that by the second half of 2021 nearly everybody who wants a vaccine will have one. While they are not 100% effective, even if you get Covid, the symptoms are less severe if you’ve been vaccinated. I for one expect to be largely back to normal travel in the summer 2021 timeframe.


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[dougp26364]

I’m amazed at the pessimism in this thread. I believe (hope) that by the second half of 2021 nearly everybody who wants a vaccine will have one. While they are not 100% effective, even if you get Covid, the symptoms are less severe if you’ve been vaccinated. I for one expect to be largely back to normal travel in the summer 2021 timeframe.


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Pessimism or reality? I would like to be optimistic, but, I’m also cautious. States that intermittently “lock down” their systems can cause the loss of some expensive vacation time. I’d rather be cautious and play it safe than have to manage last minute changes.