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How California went from coronavirus success story to disaster

TravelTime

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All Resale: MVC DPs, Marriott Ko Olina, Marriott Marbella, WKOVR-N, Four Seasons Aviara
Really interesting article about the 4 Califonia's involved in the Covid disaster

********************

In the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, California seemed to be a success story. Today, however, the state’s case count is surging, recently topping 400,000 total and surpassing New York. Compared with levels around Memorial Day in Southern California and around the second week in June in Northern California, daily cases have increased fourfold. In recent weeks, the average number of daily deaths statewide has increased by 50 percent.

What is driving this surge, and how can it be brought under control? California is a large and complex state, and our coronavirus challenge, too, is anything but straightforward. In fact, the best way to approach covid-19 in the Golden State is to think of it as a series of independent regional epidemics, each requiring its own solution.

1) Latino population
The most significant outbreak is among the state’s urban and rural Latino populations. Among cases where the patient’s race is known, 55 percent of California’s infections have been in Latinos, who make up just under 40 percent of the state’s population. Latinos and Hispanics are bearing the brunt of the pandemic not only in California but along the entire West Coast, including Oregon (38 percent of cases where the patient’s race is known vs. only 13 percent of the population) and Washington (44 percent vs. 13 percent).

In California, the infected are predominantly low-income, densely housed front-line service workers. Leaving home to work each day, they are exposed to the virus. When they return, it spreads in their households, which are often multigenerational. The consequences are striking. In late April, professor Gabriel Chamie and colleagues from the University of California at San Francisco studied 3,953 individuals living in a single census tract in the Mission District of San Francisco. While the estimated prevalence of infection among non-Latinos in this population was 0.2 percent, for Latinos, it was 3.9 percent — nearly 20 times higher.

2) People who don't take it seriously (do not follow safety guidelines)
Another of California’s sub-epidemics has been among people who, upon the state’s reopening, have failed to treat the virus as real and dangerous. They seem unable or unwilling to distance themselves from others and wear masks begrudgingly, if at all. From the beaches and bars of Southern California to backyard barbecues in the Central Valley to a fraternity house in Berkeley, failure to heed safety warnings has inexorably pushed the incidence of infection higher.

3) Institutional settings (nursing homes and jails)
In addition, there have been explosive outbreaks in institutional settings in California. As in the rest of the country, California’s long-term care facilities, such as skilled nursing and assisted-living facilities, have been particularly vulnerable; overall, 47 percent of Californians who have died of covid-19 have been nursing home residents.

Two federal correctional institutions, Lompoc in Santa Barbara County and Terminal Island in Los Angeles County, have been particularly hard hit, with nearly 900 and nearly 700 inmates infected, respectively. California’s state prison system has fared no better. There has been a large outbreak in San Quentin State Prison in Marin County, where almost 60 percent of inmates are infected, and other large outbreaks in prisons in Riverside, San Bernardino, Lassen and Kings counties. These outbreaks can devastate the counties in which they are located, not only because of the potential for transmission from prison staff within their communities, but also because of the stress they put on local hospitals.

4) The homeless
Finally, homeless shelters and the homeless in general have been disproportionately affected. Significant outbreaks have occurred in both Los Angeles and San Francisco. Some of the risk to the estimated 151,000 homeless Californians has been mitigated by state initiatives such as Operation Room Key, which provides hotel rooms not only to homeless individuals in isolation and quarantine but also to the frail and elderly homeless with underlying conditions that increase their risk of severe infection. Still, more can and should be done.....

Read more here:

 
On a per capita basis California is still doing quite a bit better than many states in both cases and deaths, and is well below the National averages on both. Its cases per million remains WAY below Florida, Arizona, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas for example, and it has done more tests per million than each of those states. Of those, only Texas has fewer deaths per million. (On an aside, even with its recent surge, Hawaii continues to have fewer cases per million than any other state, with half as many as no. 49, and also fewest deaths per million.)

Based on data at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

I believe (hope?), given the quick and strong response by the Governor and the LA Mayor, closing bars, etc., in another week we'll see California numbers dropping notably. But it is about a 2-week cycle due to the incubation period.
 
On a per capita basis California is still doing quite a bit better than many states in both cases and deaths, and is well below the National averages on both. Its cases per million remains WAY below Florida, Arizona, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas for example, and it has done more tests per million than each of those states. Of those, only Texas has fewer deaths per million. (On an aside, even with its recent surge, Hawaii continues to have fewer cases per million than any other state, with half as many as no. 49, and also fewest deaths per million.)

Based on data at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

I believe (hope?), given the quick and strong response by the Governor and the LA Mayor, closing bars, etc., in another week we'll see California numbers dropping notably. But it is about a 2-week cycle due to the incubation period.
I agree. Positive tests are not an important metric, percent positive, hospital admissions, positive per population, and deaths per population are important comparison measurements.

In San Diego deaths per pop are about 155.

If you took away even half of the deaths from the debacles that are NY, NJ, Conn. and Mass, US numbers would be relatively good.
 
There is a hispanic family near us that moved in a few months ago. They have had parties every weekend since July 4th when they shot off a lot of rockets and M80s. The last two weekends its been bounce houses in the driveway. Today they had a pinata,about 15 kids plus 20 adults. I’ve never seen any of them wearing a mask, some people just dont care.


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I agree. Positive tests are not an important metric, percent positive, hospital admissions, positive per population, and deaths per population are important comparison measurements.

In San Diego deaths per pop are about 155.

If you took away even half of the deaths from the debacles that are NY, NJ, Conn. and Mass, US numbers would be relatively good.

exactly. Death rate top three are STILL NJ, NY, CT.
 
I agree. Positive tests are not an important metric, percent positive, hospital admissions, positive per population, and deaths per population are important comparison measurements.

In San Diego deaths per pop are about 155.

If you took away even half of the deaths from the debacles that are NY, NJ, Conn. and Mass, US numbers would be relatively good.
I'd view it a bit differently.

I view the death rates by period, not location. Break the pandemic in the US into three phases. Onset, Mitigation. And now resurgence (for lack of a better term). The Onset period, roughly March 1 - end of April) we didn't know what was happening. Doctors didn't know how to treat or even diagnose. We didn't know about asymptomatic spread as it ravaged the elder care facilities. Hospitals were at times unable to keep up. The virus had us on the run. In mitigation, which was roughly May to about June 15, there were fewer cases, doctors/nurses were learning how to recognize the high-risk patients and knew more about how to treat them, some experimental drugs were coming out. Resurgence started about mid-June and continues. But, in the resurgence we know pretty well who has it, how it spreads, who is at risk, what works and what doesn't, and have some effective treatments that reduce mortality.

So, the death rate today is probably substantially less than it was in the onset phase, no matter where in the U.S. you are, just based on what we have learned. Of course, you then have to go a step further and break it down by age, because clearly the mortality rate depends a lot on age. When we speak of the mortality rate of the disease, what really matters is the mortality rate TODAY for your age group. (Greater detail can be found with comorbidities, but that's probably too much into the weeds.)
 
There is a hispanic family near us that moved in a few months ago. They have had parties every weekend since July 4th when they shot off a lot of rockets and M80s. The last two weekends its been bounce houses in the driveway. Today they had a pinata,about 15 kids plus 20 adults. I’ve never seen any of them wearing a mask, some people just dont care.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Probably not a good long-term strategy for that family. Viruses are relentless and unforgiving.
 
I agree. Positive tests are not an important metric, percent positive, hospital admissions, positive per population, and deaths per population are important comparison measurements.

In San Diego deaths per pop are about 155.

If you took away even half of the deaths from the debacles that are NY, NJ, Conn. and Mass, US numbers would be relatively good.

If we took away... no, scratch that... if we had simply made better decisions we would have no, or minimal numbers of, deaths.

Did you read about Jordan? Even a poor country was able to keep their numbers low. And guess what? No masks today and restaurants are open.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
If we took away... no, scratch that... if we had simply made better decisions we would have no, or minimal numbers of, deaths.

Did you read about Jordan? Even a poor country was able to keep their numbers low. And guess what? No masks today and restaurants are open.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
To be fair, however, the NY region was hit hard and early, and its extreme density, elevators, bars/nightlife, were a perfect storm. I don't know much about Jordan, but I doubt it could be easily confused with NY. Strip out the upper Northeast deaths prior to May 1 and we get a more fair comparison.
 
This discussion reminds me of the old elephant joke

How do you carve an elephant

get a block of wood and carve away everything that does not look like an elephant.
 
 
It looks like a lot of people have decided that being outside = not needing to social distance or wear a mask. I went to the beach the other day and it was completely packed. There was no social distancing, other than a group of 3 ladies who found a spot where they were all sitting apart and wearing masks. There was no way they could social distance walking back to their cars, though. As I walked the shoreline, I kept thinking that if the governor saw pictures of what was happening, he'd shut down all the San Diego beaches.

Yesterday, I saw a large group of adult soccer players practicing at the park and there were plenty of softball teams playing softball. Maybe I'm just out of the loop and people are allowed to gather in groups outside now.
 
It looks like a lot of people have decided that being outside = not needing to social distance or wear a mask. I went to the beach the other day and it was completely packed. There was no social distancing, other than a group of 3 ladies who found a spot where they were all sitting apart and wearing masks. There was no way they could social distance walking back to their cars, though. As I walked the shoreline, I kept thinking that if the governor saw pictures of what was happening, he'd shut down all the San Diego beaches.

Yesterday, I saw a large group of adult soccer players practicing at the park and there were plenty of softball teams playing softball. Maybe I'm just out of the loop and people are allowed to gather in groups outside now.
It’s less likely, but not risk free. Assuming nobody is coughing or sneezing on you, if you’re not talking face to face (or singing or yelling) and you‘re 3-4 feet apart (so picture walking along side by side talking normally) it would seem that the risk of infection would be very low. There is no denying that inside is far riskier than outside, all other things being equal. And ordinary “indoor voice” talking puts out “stuff” that only travels a few feet out in front of you.
 
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