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A Mysterious Virus in Central China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know

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T_R_Oglodyte said:
Doesn't change my thinking. He's still using garbage data.

A couple of weeks ago I started a thread related to effects of social distancing, in which I posited that it appeared that social distancing was having a positive impact in the state of Washington. The data looked promising, some people questioned the data.

As it turned, I was completely mistaken and what I had noted was a data artifact. Plus, as others pointed out, the data I was using was suspect at its root. And all of the information I have picked up since that time simply reinforces to me the folly of what I was looking.

Posting bluntly, this strikes me as a more sophisticated redux of what I had jumped on before. But the principal remains. He is working with garbage data, and there is no indication of how he might be refining the data to tease something useful out of the data. He's also working in a field that appears to me to be, at the best, on the periphery of his field of expertise. Now that's not fatal; I've been working data set often enough to know that often someone outside of the field can provide a new an alternate way of looking at information that enhances the understanding.

But I don't see that here. He's simply rehashing numbers that have been used by individuals more conversant in the field than he is, but he isn't incorporating their uncertainty parameters.
Click to expand...

I have posted multiple times that it is all about the data. Whether or not it is garbage is something else. Good night.


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screenshot.png
 
Nurses must be protected from abuse during coronavirus pandemic: WHO, nursing groups


www.reuters.com

Nurses must be protected from abuse during coronavirus pandemic: WHO, nursing groups

Authorities must protect nurses and other health workers from harassment and attacks compounding the already heavy toll they are paying in the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) and top nursing officials said on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com


Richard
 
Antiparasitic drug lvermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours

www.news-medical.net

Antiparasitic drug Ivermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours

Around the world, scientists race to develop a vaccine or treatment against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Now, a team of researchers has found that a drug already available around the world can kill the coronavirus...
www.news-medical.net www.news-medical.net

Richard
 
Every time this January thread pops up that states “infected dozens“ it brings back memories of something that seems so long ago yet is only a few months. I am amazed, shocked and scared as to the speed and global impact that this little virus has accomplished.
 
RX8 said:
Every time this January thread pops up that states “infected dozens“ it brings back memories of something that seems so long ago yet is only a few months. I am amazed, shocked and scared as to the speed and global impact that this little virus has accomplished.
Click to expand...
I am amazed too. It is mind blowing. It has an exponential growth factor that some have estimated that one person gives it to 2 1/2 people. With exponential growth numbers explode.

For simplicity to show exponential growth factor, let’s take a penny, .01 and double the growth each day.

day 1 = .01
day 2 = .02,
day 3 = .04
day 5 = .08
day 6 = .16
day 7 = .32
day 8 = .64
day 9 = 1.28
day 10 = 2.56
day 11 = 5.12
day 12 = 10.24
day 13 = 20.48
day 14 = 40.96
day 15 = 81.92
day 16 = 163.84
day 17 = 327.68
day 18 = 655.36
day 19 = 1310.72
day 20 = 2621.44
day 21 = 5242.88
day 22 = 10485.76
day 23 = 20971.52
day 24 = 41943.04
day 25 = 83,886.08
day 26 = 167772.16
day 27 = 335544.32
day 28 = 671088.64
day 29 = 1342177.28
day 30 = 2684354.56
day 29 = 5368709.12
day 30 = 10737418.20

Article explaining it further.
www.usatoday.com

Coronavirus is spreading so quickly that our brains can't keep up. Experts explain why.

Exponential growth has a technical meaning that will help you understand why the coronavirus is spreading so quickly and how its course may be altered
www.usatoday.com
 
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Ken555 said:
Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

gothamist.com

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Deaths at home hit record numbers, but they’re not all counted in the official coronavirus toll.
gothamist.com gothamist.com


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
An article in the Seattle Times recently made the same point. We're only counting cases deaths that occur while someone is directly under care. There certainly are many more cases and deaths that never get counted.

That also gets compounded by the desires of many government officials to under-report. The numbers from China, for example, are way out of sync with what we are seeing in North America and Europe, where we know that we are undercounting. The China numbers might be off by order of magnitude, and the number of funeral urns that they have acquired suggest a vastly higher death toll than what they have reported.
 
T_R_Oglodyte said:
An article in the Seattle Times recently made the same point. We're only counting cases deaths that occur while someone is directly under care. There certainly are many more cases and deaths that never get counted.

That also gets compounded by the desires of many government officials to under-report. The numbers from China, for example, are way out of sync with what we are seeing in North America and Europe, where we know that we are undercounting. The China numbers might be off by order of magnitude, and the number of funeral urns that they have acquired suggest a vastly higher death toll than what they have reported.
Click to expand...

Yes, this was predicted a month or more ago. It’s now coming true.


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Ken555 said:
Click to expand...
New Zealand isn't alone. Isolated island regions, where effective controls can be placed on visitors, are doing the same. It's likely that Hawaii may have similar success.

The problem those countries are going to face is that they are will have a vulnerable population, and sooner or later the virus will arrive. If no vaccine has been available they will then have another outbreak to deal with.
 
T_R_Oglodyte said:
New Zealand isn't alone. Isolated island regions, where effective controls can be placed on visitors, are doing the same. It's likely that Hawaii may have similar success.

The problem those countries are going to face is that they are will have a vulnerable population, and sooner or later the virus will arrive. If no vaccine has been available they will then have another outbreak to deal with.
Click to expand...

I’d pay well to be in New Zealand right now, and I’m sure lots of others would, too. Sure, nothing is perfect but wouldn’t you rather be in a country that has locked down sufficiently to eradicate it within your borders? This also provides them time to relax restrictions while scientists create a vaccine etc. I’m really not sure how anyone would interpret NZ’s plan to be bad.


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Ken555 said:
I’d pay well to be in New Zealand right now, and I’m sure lots of others would, too. Sure, nothing is perfect but wouldn’t you rather be in a country that has locked down sufficiently to eradicate it within your borders? This also provides them time to relax restrictions while scientists create a vaccine etc. I’m really not sure how anyone would interpret NZ’s plan to be bad.


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Click to expand...
I didn't mean to imply their plans were bad. I'm just pointing out the price of success now continued vigilance. If they drop their guard it will come roaring back in their community.

Development of a vaccine is critical. That's how we were able to beat smallpox. And when dropped our guard with smallpox, it mounted a comeback.
 
T_R_Oglodyte said:
I didn't mean to imply their plans were bad. I'm just pointing out the price of success now continued vigilance. If they drop their guard it will come roaring back in their community.

Development of a vaccine is critical. That's how we were able to beat smallpox. And when dropped our guard with smallpox, it mounted a comeback.
Click to expand...

Yes. It’s good to repeat that message over and over, because there will be people who insist they return to the way it was as soon as this first wave is over. Trust the scientists and no one else. No one else.


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Conan said:
Coronavirus State-By-State Projections: When Will Each State Peak?
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...f-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak#allstates

Someone please explain to me how, absent an effective vaccine, cases can end at a given date, as they supposedly already ended in China.
Click to expand...
The numbers come from the IHME web site. They have an explanation of background and assumptions.

The spread of a virus is related to how easily it's transmitted. As immunity is built in a population, opportunities for the virus to transmit, and the ease of transmission goes down. For example, let's say that inherently one person will typically transmit the virus to five other people. So at the the start you have explosive growth. But as resistance builds in the population, the virus can't find targets and so the ease of transmission goes down. In my example, when 80% of the population becomes resistant, the effective transmission has now gone from five to one - that's because of the five who could have received the virus initially, four of them are now immune.

When the virus transmission factor drops below one, the epidemic subsides, because people are now gaining immunity faster than the virus is being transmitted. That doesn't mean that everyone has resistance or that the virus has ceased to exist. It just means that the epidemic is waning. We see this often with flu. A new type of flu develops and is widely transmitted. Existing vaccines have little or no effectiveness. The flu rages for a season, then dies out, even though there are still many people who have not become sick, because it's transmission rate declines (due to acquired immunity in the population, viral mutation, or changing weather conditions that inhibit virus spread).

However, the IHME estimates are based on continued implementation of measures such as social distancing. And those measures are factored into the estimate of the transmission factor. So as soon as those restrictions are lifted, the transmission factor will go up, and there will be an increase in cases until enough population gains resistance to bring the transmission factor back below one again.

When a particular area lifts it's restrictions, the curves will change, but that is not considered in the IMHE predictions.
 
T_R_Oglodyte said:
The numbers come from the IHME web site. They have an explanation of background and assumptions.

The spread of a virus is related to how easily it's transmitted. As immunity is built in a population, opportunities for the virus to transmit, and the ease of transmission goes down. For example, let's say that inherently one person will typically transmit the virus to five other people. So at the the start you have explosive growth. But as resistance builds in the population, the virus can't find targets and so the ease of transmission goes down. In my example, when 80% of the population becomes resistant, the effective transmission has now gone from five to one - that's because of the five who could have received the virus initially, four of them are now immune.

When the virus transmission factor drops below one, the epidemic subsides, because people are now gaining immunity faster than the virus is being transmitted. That doesn't mean that everyone has resistance or that the virus has ceased to exist. It just means that the epidemic is waning. We see this often with flu. A new type of flu develops and is widely transmitted. Existing vaccines have little or no effectiveness. The flu rages for a season, then dies out, even though there are still many people who have not become sick, because it's transmission rate declines (due to acquired immunity in the population, viral mutation, or changing weather conditions that inhibit virus spread).

However, the IHME estimates are based on continued implementation of measures such as social distancing. And those measures are factored into the estimate of the transmission factor. So as soon as those restrictions are lifted, the transmission factor will go up, and there will be an increase in cases until enough population gains resistance to bring the transmission factor back below one again.

When a particular area lifts it's restrictions, the curves will change, but that is not considered in the IMHE predictions.
Click to expand...

A key missing variable is the length of immunity, if it exists (though the experts believe so), which we just don’t know yet. Herd immunity will be how we get out of this tunnel fastest, and we will still desperately need a vaccine or other more permanent treatment.


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Ken555 said:
apple.news

Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word — Los Angeles Times

As hospitals battle the coronavirus, they're baffled as the Trump administration seizes hard-to-stock medical supplies.
apple.news apple.news

Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word
As hospitals battle the coronavirus, they’re baffled as the Trump administration seizes hard-to-stock medical supplies.


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Click to expand...

It's like the medical profession determining who should be treated first. High-transmission areas were prioritized that are also preparing for the coronavirus, and allocations were based on population, not on quantities requested.
 
This breathing technique may help coronavirus patients feel better
A British doctor — identified by The Times as Dr. Sarfaraz Munshi from Queen’s Hospital in London — demonstrated the exercise in a YouTube video that's received almost 2 million views since Friday.
www.today.com

This breathing technique may help coronavirus patients feel better

The idea is to get the lower part of a person’s lungs to expand so that any mucus that’s collecting there can be dislodged and coughed out.
www.today.com www.today.com

Looks legitimate and is probably worth practicing even if as far as you know you're uninfected.

Also it's consistent with Chris Cuomo's advice and experience.
 
MULTIZ321 said:
Antiparasitic drug lvermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours

www.news-medical.net

Antiparasitic drug Ivermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours

Around the world, scientists race to develop a vaccine or treatment against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Now, a team of researchers has found that a drug already available around the world can kill the coronavirus...
www.news-medical.net www.news-medical.net

Richard
Click to expand...
We have always used this on our horses
 
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