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Disney ROFR

Au Contraire, Mon Frère.

The very fact that prices have drop significantly has proven ROFR keeps prices above true market prices when it is exercised.
It's the other way round.

Timeshare values dropped to rock bottom. Then the timeshare companies holding ROFR quit exercising it.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​
 
It's the other way round.

Timeshare values dropped to rock bottom. Then the timeshare companies holding ROFR quit exercising it.


Obviously I don't agree. It all comes back to supply and demand. ROFR is a tool used by the developer to manipulate the supply in the resale market and by extension, the demand for retail sales.

In this case, DVC has a vested interest in inflating the price of the resales. The tool they use is their ROFR. DVC prices on the resale front remained high, well above the retail prices the product sold at for the first 10 years. These high prices were common on the resale market until DVC stop ROFR.

In other words, prices began their decline after DVC stopped buying back the points. Did they stop because they felt the value was gone? That is hard to imagine considering they continue to build and raise the price per point. A quick scan of resales shows the average price per point to be around $70. I would not call this "rock bottom".

But as we all know, never buy a TS for an investment. I have no plans to shed my points until my lease is up.
 
Disney will not allow even OKW to go say $25 a point.

but yes the prices have dropped. right now you can buy SSR thru DVC for $120 (or will Dec 1) - but you can see for yourself the resale prices

http://www.dvc-resales.com/dvclisting.cfm

this is just one.

now if okw is selling for less than $48 (the original price) would be concern.

to my knowledge the only DVC on WDW property that is selling for less than it did in the beginning is SSR. It started selling at $72 - so anything less than this is a bargin. If you want SSR.

got rid of OKW - saw this coming a few years ago and besides had to have BLT - the first and probably only DVC resort on the monrail. although there are rumors about GF getting one too.

OKW was great for years. but older and need something closer to the MK.

already own at bwv so Epcot is covered (although have though about BCV)

have the bottom of SSR prices been hit - in my opinon no.

but hey Disney is still selling for more than the others. Many Westgates would go for free - but guess what even free they are no takers.

got rid of Westgate thru a charity - FINALLY!!!!
 
ROFR does affect the supply/demand balance, because some of the cheaper supply is removed from the market. To a limited degree, I think ROFR can and does prop up resale values, but there's only so much it can do.
 
The Miracle Of ROFR.

ROFR does affect the supply/demand balance, because some of the cheaper supply is removed from the market. To a limited degree, I think ROFR can and does prop up resale values, but there's only so much it can do.
If so -- & that's a big If -- it miraculously jacks up prices buyers have to pay without raising seller prices by so much as a dime.

Short version -- ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​
 
now if okw is selling for less than $48 (the original price) would be concern.

According to the Disboards thread on ROFR, OKW sales have gotten through as low as $48.15 a point. That's pretty darn close.

SSR appears to get through at $60 a point pretty regularly.
 
If so -- & that's a big If -- it miraculously jacks up prices buyers have to pay without raising seller prices by so much as a dime.

Short version -- ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

disney can sell them for more - that is proven. so no it does not.

the problem right now is disney is raising the prices - despite the guides asking them not too. hey the new DVC (Jim Lewis and company) don't listen to anyone but themselves.

dec 1 - BLT will be $130 - don't see Disney is hurting....

did not you sell your DVC when the free tickets were gone?

kept mind and the resale market still worked fine for me. Sold VB and OKW for more than I paid for them. after using them for years. Can't do better than that - my opinion.
 
If so -- & that's a big If -- it miraculously jacks up prices buyers have to pay without raising seller prices by so much as a dime.
Not quite true. If buyers know they have to beat the ROFR, they'll offer more.

Anybody who does any research at all will know what levels Disney is exercising ROFR and if they really want to buy, they'll offer at least that amount. If it weren't for ROFR, many would probably try to buy for less.
 
Disney has stated that Californian is now sold out..

Even DVC doesn't have unlimited funds to spend on ROFR especially when they have a lot of expensive inventory to sell at Animal Kingdom, Bay Lake Towers, and California Disney Land. This really makes sense.

tlwmkw


Disney has stated that Californian is now sold out.. It was a very small initial offering consisting of only 48 villas.

By the way, I'm a real estate agent as well.. (Didn't want to get hit with the troll word later in this thread!)
 
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When ROFR is exercised consistently, it does indeed set a floor for prices, albeit artificial. When those low price contracts do not reach the consumer the consumer must either turn to a higher priced resale or by from DVC itself. This does serve to "protect" prices. The very fact that prices have drop significantly has proven ROFR keeps prices above true market prices when it is exercised.

Disney, as noted, has changed the level they will exercise their right. While this has lowered the market price it is still setting the floor. Also, anyone who thought Disney was using ROFR to protect the members investment was clearly naive. Disney uses ROFR to inflate the values in order to sell developer priced memberships at new resorts.

That being said, I am still thrilled I can sell my BWV membership above the price I paid in 1998 and my AKV is only 10% below my purchase price. What other timeshare could I see those values hold?

If there was a "floor" as you state then anyone would be able to say "I want to sell at $$ (floor price)" and ROFR would grab it. No such thing happens as there is no standing offer to buy. It is hit & miss and a ruse that only helps developers (surprise?) at the expense of uninformed (or tricked) owners/sellers as well as potential buyers.

A standing buy back is a price support. ROFR is a sales impediment.
 
If buyers know they have to beat the ROFR, they'll offer more.
That's not sufficient unless the rightsholder has (effectively) unlimited resources. And, not even Disney has that.

This is simple economics. At any particular market price, there are a group of willing sellers, and a group of willing buyers. As the market price increases, the sellers grow, and the buyers shrink; and vice versa. This is especially true for a luxury item like DVC, which is elastic in demand. At any given time, there is some price at which the number of buyers is roughly close to the number of sellers, and that's the "market equilibrium." It's influenced by the number of owners who are tired of going to Disney every year, the size of the informed resale purchasing market, and so on.

(Some are surprised by this elasticity. Among the fanatical, it's hard to remember that Disney isn't in the same category as food, clothing, and basic housing. But I digress.)

Disney cannot change that equilibrium price, except as another participant in the market. They *can* set a trigger point higher than that price, and *some* prospective buyers will decide to pay a higher price. But, others will balk, and do something else with their vacation dollars. In other words, the pool of buyers shrinks.

But, the pool of sellers grows. So, more deeds come available on the market. Among those selling are folks who think "I still like DVC, but for that price, I could sell." There are also folks who, for whatever reason, *need* to sell. These are your "motivated sellers". They will try to undercut the market a little bit, because they need to get out from under the deed. Some buyer will take a chance on it---either because the price is worth spending a little time on, even if it is ROFR'd, or because the buyer doesn't know what the trigger price is.

When that happens often enough, it doesn't matter whether Disney ROFRs or not; deeds will sell for less. Disney either needs sufficient resources---and a sufficiently developed direct sales channel---to ROFR and then sell all of them, or they need to let some go through. That reduces the *known* trigger price. And so on.

In effect, Disney acts as another purchaser in the market place, but one that does not have to competitively bid for inventory. But, that purchaser can only "make the market" if they are willing to buy *all* inventory at a particular price. That's rarely true, even for someone with pockets as large as the Mouse's.

Now, if you go back and study carefully the data in those links I provided, I think you will find that, during 2009, prices were dropping fairly consistently, even in the presence of ROFR. ROFR was essentially discontinued in early 2010 everywhere except BCV. So, Alan has it right: prices dropped then ROFR was curtailed. This probably does cause prices to drop a little faster---Disney is no longer a willing buyer in the market place, and that reduces the market equilibrium price further. So, ROFR does have *some* positive pressure on prices, but unless the rights holder is willing to go all the way, it is hardly the silver bullet some make it out to be.
 
If there was a "floor" as you state then anyone would be able to say "I want to sell at $$ (floor price)" and ROFR would grab it. No such thing happens...

DVC will buy ever contract put through ROFR at $10 a point. The floor is somewhere above that. You can dismiss it general terms but ROFR obviously influences prices. The extent of that influence is debatable. And as Brian states, it is no silver bullet. Nor it is used with the interest of the members in mind.
 
We will be purchasing at these bottom-dollar prices. No one has mentioned that a seller doesn't have to take any amount you offer. So it's not likely points will go down to $25. I must admit, never have I been more tempted.
 
That's not sufficient unless the rightsholder has (effectively) unlimited resources. And, not even Disney has that.
Right. That's why I said that it's only to a limited degree.

Disney cannot change that equilibrium price, except as another participant in the market.
Bingo. They are another participant in the market, and when you consider what they can "resell" those points for, they can afford to pull everything cheap off the market.

There are many who want to buy and have a fairly elastic price that they're willing to pay. That pool of people have increased competition when Disney pulls all the cheap stuff off the market.

We will be purchasing at these bottom-dollar prices. ... I must admit, never have I been more tempted.
I have to admit I was too, when I saw several that passed ROFR at about half of the rate Disney used to let through. Then logic got ahold of me and I realized that I've been able to consistently trade into DVC at a cost well under half of what DVC members pay (my maintenance fee + exchange fee vs. their maintenance fee) and with virtually no upfront cost (using intervals that cost well under $1000). I have four weeks in 2BR DVC units (so far!) booked for 2011. I had to throw back a 2BR Wilderness Lodge (that would have checked in yesterday) that I picked up last minute with an ongoing search using my worst trader. My total cost on that one would have been under $400 (~$100 MF + $179 exchange + $95 Disney).
 
I have to admit I was too, when I saw several that passed ROFR at about half of the rate Disney used to let through. Then logic got ahold of me and I realized that I've been able to consistently trade into DVC at a cost well under half of what DVC members pay (my maintenance fee + exchange fee vs. their maintenance fee) and with virtually no upfront cost (using intervals that cost well under $1000). I have four weeks in 2BR DVC units (so far!) booked for 2011. I had to throw back a 2BR Wilderness Lodge (that would have checked in yesterday) that I picked up last minute with an ongoing search using my worst trader. My total cost on that one would have been under $400 (~$100 MF + $179 exchange + $95 Disney).

The annual pass discount of $100 per family member is reason for you to buy a small package of points. With your little ones, and the two of you, that would save you $500 per year. So a 50 point package, and you are way ahead. And you use the points for a few extra nights, specifically to match FF tickets.
 
The annual pass discount of $100 per family member is reason for you to buy a small package of points. With your little ones, and the two of you, that would save you $500 per year. So a 50 point package, and you are way ahead. And you use the points for a few extra nights, specifically to match FF tickets.
Hmmm, 50 points is $2k+ upfront and $250 per year. That's enough for 2 nights (weekdays, off season) in a 2BR. And $400 off four annual passes. Hmmm, perhaps. (But I said I would stop at 6!)
 
I have to admit I was too, when I saw several that passed ROFR at about half of the rate Disney used to let through. Then logic got ahold of me and I realized that I've been able to consistently trade into DVC at a cost well under half of what DVC members pay (my maintenance fee + exchange fee vs. their maintenance fee) and with virtually no upfront cost (using intervals that cost well under $1000). I have four weeks in 2BR DVC units (so far!) booked for 2011. I had to throw back a 2BR Wilderness Lodge (that would have checked in yesterday) that I picked up last minute with an ongoing search using my worst trader. My total cost on that one would have been under $400 (~$100 MF + $179 exchange + $95 Disney).

Now this has done more to hurt the value of DVC than ROFR could ever help. The simple fact that I traded my $1 ebay timeshare into the Beach Club before I was able to book using my DVC points does real damage. Why would I ever lay out $10K+ again to get the same thing with no upfront cost?
 
when you consider what they can "resell" those points for, they can afford to pull everything cheap off the market

Yet, for some reason, they have not done so for nearly all of 2010---again excepting at BCV. That tells me that they have more than enough current inventory to meet the current pace of sales that they can generate. After all, those resorts already have capital invested that needs to be rercovered. Why devote more capital when you don't need to? Disney has apparently decided that there is no good reason.

At the end of the day, there is only one person that ROFR was designed to benefit: Mickey. That sometimes other people might also get a little something out of it is completely happenstance, and cannot be counted upon.
 
We haven't heard yet on ROFR on our 75 SSR points at $63 a point we're buying, but I think it will go through. Owning DVC points allows me to treat the little ones in the family during school breaks. :) The annual pass discount is nice, too.

We've got a Disney Hilton Head 2 bedroom booked on points for spring break. I've also got a Marriott and Royal Dunes resort booked, too, but I wanted the Disney reservation because of the themed heated pool with slide and resort activities for the little ones that are traveling with our big family group. Owning DVC points allows me to get the dates I really need when traveling with school age kids.

I think you'll see more competition on RCI for DVC inventory when the new system is rolled out. I know I'll be looking diligently if Wyndham points deposits finally get regular online access/visible deposits instead of having to call a guide. The RCI guide I talked to the other day told me I was gonna love it - so we'll see.
 
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Now this has done more to hurt the value of DVC than ROFR could ever help. The simple fact that I traded my $1 ebay timeshare into the Beach Club before I was able to book using my DVC points does real damage. Why would I ever lay out $10K+ again to get the same thing with no upfront cost?

You know, I don't think it matters that much because most people I've talked to who want to make reservations with Disney don't want to be bothered with chasing their tail on a trade or hopefully getting that school break date they need. Tuggers are not the norm - we enjoy the chase. ;) But there are dangers in owning so called "traders" - you could be stuck with something you can't give away later if your favorite resort stops trading in RCI/II. Ask all the people who bought traders specifically for trading into DVC back when DVC traded with Interval.

I had actually thought about buying some HGVC points instead of more DVC points and using them to trade into DVC, but HGVC maintenance fees are not cheap and in my heart I knew I really wanted more SSR Disney points. So I bought what I really wanted. I like calling DVC direct and booking the exact dates I need.
 
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I agree with Littlestar, I like booking direct and getting the dates and resort that I want thru DVC (plus they are always very nice and helpful on the phone - I never feel rushed to make a decision or that I'm 'taking up too much their time').
 
On a semi-related note, here's perhaps another reason why Disney is not falling all over itself to acquire inventory in addition to the inventory they already have to sell at Aulani, AKV, BLT, and SSR's Treehouses. This is from the most recent quarterly results, released on the 11th of this month. Emphasis mine:

For the quarter, lower operating income at our domestic operations reflected higher costs at our domestic resorts and lower results at Disney Vacation Club, partially offset by higher guest spending at our domestic resorts driven by an increase in average ticket prices and higher food and beverage spending. Increased costs reflected labor cost inflation and higher pension and post-retirement medical expenses. The decrease at Disney Vacation Club reflected lower ownership sales of vacation club units and decreased revenue recognition due to the timing of completion of vacation club properties. Results for the current quarter at our domestic operations were adversely impacted by having one less week of operations than in the prior-year quarter.

Also, littlestar wrote:

I don't think it matters that much because most people I've talked to who want to make reservations with Disney don't want to be bothered with chasing their tail on a trade or hopefully getting that school break date they need.

I think this is exactly right. Personally, I've been of the opinion that I'd prefer a Disney resort, but if I have to stay in one of the better offsite resorts, well, that's no great hardship. It's really really nice to be able to have someone chauffeur me around after a couple of cocktails in World Showcase, but I can pay for a lot of taxi trips with the money I would not spend on a DVC resale deed for my late February/early March week. So, I'm willing to roll the dice each year, hoping I snag a unit for my spring break---usually it works out, every once in a while it doesn't.

But, if you really only would be happy staying *with Disney*, and you don't have the luxury of being flexible about when you visit, then buying makes sense. Much simpler to book internally than play the exchange game. You can get what you want, when you want, with certainty. That's worth it to a lot of people.
 
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The other great thing about booking direct is the flexibility to change things. I can change dates, add days, drop days or decide I want to stay at a different resort or in a different size unit and I can do any of that with a phone call without losing an exchange fee or trading power.
 
The other great thing about booking direct is the flexibility to change things. I can change dates, add days, drop days or decide I want to stay at a different resort or in a different size unit and I can do any of that with a phone call without losing an exchange fee or trading power.

That's something I like too. A few months ago DVC Member Services was even nice enough to credit back two days worth of points to our account when my daughter had to leave Vero Beach early. They didn't have to do that, but they sure did. It was approaching Labor day weekend so maybe they figured they could rent those days pretty easily and that's why they credited the points back.

I used those holding points to book a night in the new DVC Contemporary resort for my niece and her husband after a cruise and a night at Animal Kingdom villas for my sister during fall break. It's been my experience that DVC goes the extra mile for you when it comes to service.

On a side note, I wonder what the average wait time (days wise) for ROFR is these days?
 
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