Worldwide Population Hits ‘Tipping Point’ Earlier Than Expected

[jp10558]

Worldwide population hits "tipping point" earlier than expected

A new U.S. Census Bureau report projects the global population aged 65 and older will more than double by 2060.

www.newsweek.com

The Census Bureau projects the global population aged 65 and older will more than double from about 852 million in 2025 to nearly 2 billion by 2060. By then, older adults are expected to make up almost one-fifth of humanity, compared with roughly one in 10 people today.

The growing share of seniors is expected to have far-reaching consequences for labor markets, healthcare systems and pension programs.

Perhaps might be short term good news for increased users of Timeshares though. I think this might help explain the growing market in that even if we think other factors would be headwinds (and this might also create headwinds in staffing issues), the traditional older target demographic is growing massively through 2060 so that could just raise things regardless of anything else.

 

[Greg G]

Deleted

 

[Brett]

Too many old people

 

[moonstone]

Too many old people

View attachment 129003

Yup! Very rare for a couple to have 3, 4 or more children these days and for the past few years. In my dad's age era (b.1931) it was not uncommon for folks to have a lot of children. I worked with 3 women (all born in the late 50's) who each had more than 10 siblings. All the friends of our 3 kids (ages 42-38) have had no children or 1 child or a very few 2. Both our DSs have 2 each and our DD has none and has taken permanent measures to ensure there are no whoopsies!

In addition to the stats in the article, I found that in Canada the average age is 41.8 years old. In the USA it is 39.4. In the USA the median age was 35.6 years in 2001 and just 28.1 years in 1970. People aged 65 and older in Canada make up almost 20% of the population and children 14 and younger make up 10% of the population.


~Diane

 

[Big Matt]

Those numbers probably don't assume the rapid (positive) changes in medical research. I think that by the year 2060 most diseases will be curable and people will begin to focus on living much longer in a healthy manner. Many people will not procreate which will eventually lead to a massive population decline once it reaches less than one offspring per person. It sounds crazy, but the behavior of younger people today support the theory in those people who have money/wealth. I just hope we don't see population explode to the point where some parts of the world face starvation without help from others.

 

[amycurl]

I think the negative impacts on a great majority of the US population of the social determinants of health will continue to erode longevity in the US, which has gone down the past few years. What use is having a cure to a disease if a person can’t access it, or doesn’t have healthy food to eat?

In addition, immigrant families in the US have tend to have more children, and the average age of immigrant populations tend to be lower. With mass deportations and less immigration, that will probably increase the average age in the US as well.


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[amycurl]

And there are already parts of the world facing mass starvation.


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[rickandcindy23]

This is a topic that can go sideways very quickly. I see no point in a conversation about too many old people. All I can think about is Soylent Green right now.

 

[jp10558]

I was more interested if TUG thought this increasing demographic will buoy timeshare sales or resales even though the retail pricing is getting ever less defensible from most perspectives? Also, while we often debated if the "younger generation wants different things" was more a function of being younger and so targeting that for the next 30 years as the older cohort grows is a mistake, or at least mis-timed, or if Millennials inherently want completely different things at age 40 than Boomers did at age 40?

And of course it's a spectrum - one big difference is that way more Millennials don't have kids than Boomers at 40. The research shows that. However the question there is - will travelling with extended family or friends fill in, will 1BR become more popular than 2BR had been, or are the very concept untenable because Millennials won't see any value even resale?

One thing that I read ... I think from the 1440 newsletter, is a "bucket list trips" for each decade of life. In one way, I might be a little behind, in another way we might be ahead. What I mean is some of the trips in like the 20s would have seemed completely unaffordable to me at 25, and many of us hit by the financial crisis right out of college were the same. Backpacking across Europe (the 20's trip) might have been "cheap" but not when you didn't have $800 for a plane ticket to get there. But the other trend that was obvious was that each decade was suggesting a less physically demanding trip. Which makes sense - but as @amycurl said - I know a lot more Millennials with odd health issues and energy levels that often dive more toward 70 year olds than 35 year olds at random times that make things like resort trips more appealing that would otherwise be obviously the case. Not everyone, but more than I would have guessed from looking at Gen X and Boomers when I was younger and they were in their late 30s or so.

I guess what I'm getting at is I think ARDA reports might be targeting a market that is not actually there - not only are there just less younger people, but a lot of the tastes are perhaps theoretical vs where they actually end up when they might realistically buy a TS.

 

[am1]

Those numbers probably don't assume the rapid (positive) changes in medical research. I think that by the year 2060 most diseases will be curable and people will begin to focus on living much longer in a healthy manner. Many people will not procreate which will eventually lead to a massive population decline once it reaches less than one offspring per person. It sounds crazy, but the behavior of younger people today support the theory in those people who have money/wealth. I just hope we don't see population explode to the point where some parts of the world face starvation without help from others

In the big picture parts of the world helping other parts of the world with starvation will increase the issue. I am for parts of the world educating and improving chances of self sufficiency for the parts of the world facing starvation or even better people in parts of the world where there is starvation helping those starving around them. Millions/billions are spent but where does it go. We need to do better.