- Joined
- Jul 19, 2007
- Messages
- 7,154
- Reaction score
- 1,949
- Location
- Carlsbad, CA
- Resorts Owned
- Marriott: Maui Ocean Club Lahaina Villas (3BRx5), Ko Olina, Shadow Ridge II, Willow Ridge, Aruba Ocean Club, DC Points HGVC: Flamingo, Sea World, I-Drive, Starwood Bella (x4), SDO, TradeWinds, Worldmark
TUGgers,
I'm presenting the viewpoint that the skim subsidizes the cash cost to participants and I project what the same system would have cost if fully settled in cash.
I definitely do not take the position that skimming is/isn't preferable to cash payment, I'm only presenting a (certainly flawed) analysis. I apologize for the length of this thing.
Some rough assumptions:
1) Currently there are 400,000 owners
2) Assume 20% convert (big assumption) -- 80,000 points enrollees
3) Assume all own 2 weeks or more (another big assumption)
4) For simplicity, everybody pays $199 in annual fees.
That's $16 million in gross annual revenue to Marriott. I'm sure Marriott has to pay something to II for the memberships, assume $20/account), so net revenue of $14 million per year.
This is a corporation with $11 BILLION in annual revenue. These annual fees aren't even a blip to Marriott.
Assumptions continue:
5) Per #2 above, there are 80,000 enrollees
6) Assume that 25% of them are willing to buy 1,000 points at $9.20 (another big assumption)
Now that's $184 million in revenue, plus these points purchasers are sharing the cost burden of the MFs of the unsold inventory.
7) These 80,000 enrollees pay an average of $1,500 to enroll (some blend of $695 and $1995)
This generates $120 million in up-front fees to Marriott.
8) Assume, every one of the 80,000 members redeems their week for points
9) Every member is skimmed 10% of their points value
10) Assume an average points enrolled per member of 8,000
Marriott has just skimmed 800 points worth at least $0.40 each (or $320 per year) for each of 80,000 memberships. That's $26 million per year in skimmed value.
Summary:
Marriott's new system provides annual, recurring (mostly stable) revenues of ~$40M (Skim of $26M and Fees of $14M) from existing owners.
Additionally, sales of 1,000 point packages to the week enrollees could generate of $184M (and there will be other new sales to true new customers) and the up-front fees paid by all 80,000 week enrollees were $120M.
It is clear from these that The Skim vastly exceeds the cash fees paid and these numbers start to become big blips for Marriott.
What if:
My objection has always been the real or perceived extraction of value from the existing, loyal owner who paid for their week (you and me). What if Marriott said it didn't want a hidden cost in the system and "let the owner pay the fully loaded cost of what Marriott needs to earn for the access and benefits of the new system".
If Marriott wanted to do it all with cash fees, and their financial analysis indicated a need for this $40M in recurring revenue to justify the program ($14M net fees plus $26M in Skim) and let's assume (critical assumption) they really did need $300M in up-front money ($184M in add'l sales of 1,000 points to each owner plus the up-front payments of $120M), these same 80,000 owners would have had to pay:
Up-front cost to join: $3,800 ($304 million divided by 80,000 owners)
Annual fee: $500 ($40 million divided by 80,000 owners)
How would we all have reacted to a $4K up-front and $500 annual fee? How would I have reacted?
My error was in thinking that that the introduction of the points system was designed solely to stimulate future sales to new customers and that it's success wouldn't be heavily related to existing customer adoption.
It is possible however that there was no good way for Marriott to introduce a points overlay that met their financial requirements based purely on sales to new owners. I don't feel any better about this disguised tax, but it interests me to have a cash comparison.
Interestingly, if there was no skim, approximately 50% of owners would need to join to generate the same gross revenues (at Marriott's current pricing and if nobody bought new point packages).
I welcome a second set of eyes on this very rough analysis.
Best to all,
Greg
I'm presenting the viewpoint that the skim subsidizes the cash cost to participants and I project what the same system would have cost if fully settled in cash.
I definitely do not take the position that skimming is/isn't preferable to cash payment, I'm only presenting a (certainly flawed) analysis. I apologize for the length of this thing.
Some rough assumptions:
1) Currently there are 400,000 owners
2) Assume 20% convert (big assumption) -- 80,000 points enrollees
3) Assume all own 2 weeks or more (another big assumption)
4) For simplicity, everybody pays $199 in annual fees.
That's $16 million in gross annual revenue to Marriott. I'm sure Marriott has to pay something to II for the memberships, assume $20/account), so net revenue of $14 million per year.
This is a corporation with $11 BILLION in annual revenue. These annual fees aren't even a blip to Marriott.
Assumptions continue:
5) Per #2 above, there are 80,000 enrollees
6) Assume that 25% of them are willing to buy 1,000 points at $9.20 (another big assumption)
Now that's $184 million in revenue, plus these points purchasers are sharing the cost burden of the MFs of the unsold inventory.
7) These 80,000 enrollees pay an average of $1,500 to enroll (some blend of $695 and $1995)
This generates $120 million in up-front fees to Marriott.
8) Assume, every one of the 80,000 members redeems their week for points
9) Every member is skimmed 10% of their points value
10) Assume an average points enrolled per member of 8,000
Marriott has just skimmed 800 points worth at least $0.40 each (or $320 per year) for each of 80,000 memberships. That's $26 million per year in skimmed value.
Summary:
Marriott's new system provides annual, recurring (mostly stable) revenues of ~$40M (Skim of $26M and Fees of $14M) from existing owners.
Additionally, sales of 1,000 point packages to the week enrollees could generate of $184M (and there will be other new sales to true new customers) and the up-front fees paid by all 80,000 week enrollees were $120M.
It is clear from these that The Skim vastly exceeds the cash fees paid and these numbers start to become big blips for Marriott.
What if:
My objection has always been the real or perceived extraction of value from the existing, loyal owner who paid for their week (you and me). What if Marriott said it didn't want a hidden cost in the system and "let the owner pay the fully loaded cost of what Marriott needs to earn for the access and benefits of the new system".
If Marriott wanted to do it all with cash fees, and their financial analysis indicated a need for this $40M in recurring revenue to justify the program ($14M net fees plus $26M in Skim) and let's assume (critical assumption) they really did need $300M in up-front money ($184M in add'l sales of 1,000 points to each owner plus the up-front payments of $120M), these same 80,000 owners would have had to pay:
Up-front cost to join: $3,800 ($304 million divided by 80,000 owners)
Annual fee: $500 ($40 million divided by 80,000 owners)
How would we all have reacted to a $4K up-front and $500 annual fee? How would I have reacted?
My error was in thinking that that the introduction of the points system was designed solely to stimulate future sales to new customers and that it's success wouldn't be heavily related to existing customer adoption.
It is possible however that there was no good way for Marriott to introduce a points overlay that met their financial requirements based purely on sales to new owners. I don't feel any better about this disguised tax, but it interests me to have a cash comparison.
Interestingly, if there was no skim, approximately 50% of owners would need to join to generate the same gross revenues (at Marriott's current pricing and if nobody bought new point packages).
I welcome a second set of eyes on this very rough analysis.
Best to all,
Greg
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