the II travel demand index- is it accurate?

[tikicarver1]

I have been looking through the II book. From the description, the book says that the travel index (the chart in the beginning of every resort area) will be a good tool for you to plan on the demand for that particlular area.
I'm wondering if it can also be used to give an idea of the trade power you might get when you deposit a week.

For example, if you pick a week to deposit that the chart shows has high demand, in theory that should give you higher trade power. I'm wondering on the accuracy of the chart because I'm looking at Vegas, and it says the summer has average or greater availablity. However I talked with Sammy from this board, and he said that depositing a week in the summer wouild be the best for trade power.

Does anyone know, are the charts just computer generated from the previous years data or are they an average over several years.?

 

[Spence]

Summer is HOT in Vegas, if you believe Vegas is a family destination (summer when kids are out of school) then you can believe Sammy, I do not.

 

[gmarine]

Summer has lower than average demand in Vegas. For the most part the II demand index is accurate.

 

[Big Matt]

The demand index is based on the hotel/motel industry and vacancy rates. I'm sure it is reflecting the data that they receive.

It is a good indicator of the demand portion of trading power according to those who I've talked to at II.

 

[Teresa]

Special events throw some things off

Daytona has the Daytona 500 in February. For 2007 it is February 19th. The weeks that include qualifying races and the Daytona 500 itself are HOT. But the other weeks in February - not nearly as popular. So the 'average' for February in Daytona doesn't really give you a true picture of which weeks are hot. Scoring a week that includes February 19th would be big. Getting a week that includes February 4th is not. Whatever the index says - it's 'wrong' for February in Daytona.

I'm sure many areas have the same type of story whether it be great skiing weeks or fall foliage beauty.

 

[dougp26364]

Vegas is NOT high demand in the summer months. Even the hotels are offering discounted rooms to get people into them.

I have four Vegas resorts. I've learned how to plug in different dates to see what each week would pull if deposited for that date. To be honest there isn't a lot of difference between weeks but, there is a difference. If you're going after something general nad relatively easy, like Orlando or Williamsburg for example, you can almost alway get something.

However, if you're wanting a specific resort that is more popular or has higher demand that the other resorts, like Marriott's Manor Club in Williamsburg (just an example), you're better off depositing the highest value week you can. For that the index can be of some use.

Keep in mind the index is only a general gauge of demand for an area. It does not gauge demand for specific resorts and some resorts are easy to get into no matter what time of year it is. If you have a low demand resort, depositing a high demand week might not seem to make much difference.

 

[gmarine]

Daytona has the Daytona 500 in February. For 2007 it is February 19th. The weeks that include qualifying races and the Daytona 500 itself are HOT. But the other weeks in February - not nearly as popular. So the 'average' for February in Daytona doesn't really give you a true picture of which weeks are hot. Scoring a week that includes February 19th would be big. Getting a week that includes February 4th is not. Whatever the index says - it's 'wrong' for February in Daytona.

I'm sure many areas have the same type of story whether it be great skiing weeks or fall foliage beauty.

II doesnt have a demand index for each individual city. In your example of Daytona, the demand index is for the entire northern coast area of Florida not for just Daytona.

 

[Dave M]

Adding....

I think Daytona week is taken into account in the index. Week 9 shows the highest possible demand, while the weeks immediately before and after that week have much lower demand.

That high index is also a function of President's Day week, which is a popular winter school vacation week, especially for Northeast schools.

 

[Makai Guy]

Keep in mind that this index only relates to the DEMAND for the area, in other words, the number of requests received. It says nothing about the SUPPLY available. It is the balance between the supply and demand for any given area/resort/season that determines trade power in both major exchange companies.

There are some areas, like Orlando, which have a very high demand, i.e. lots and lots of requests for trades, but which have so much supply available that the trade power accorded to deposits there is not all that great compared to what you'd expect from the demand figure.

 

[dougp26364]

Keep in mind that this index only relates to the DEMAND for the area, in other words, the number of requests received. It says nothing about the SUPPLY available. It is the balance between the supply and demand for any given area/resort/season that determines trade power in both major exchange companies.

There are some areas, like Orlando, which have a very high demand, i.e. lots and lots of requests for trades, but which have so much supply available that the trade power accorded to deposits there is not all that great compared to what you'd expect from the demand figure.

Good point.

It still gives you a "general" idea of what week to deposit. As mentioned there are other things that will affect exchange power such as supply and quality but, as a general rule, higher demand weeks should give whatever you're depositing it's best chance. That is unless everyone looks at that index and attempts to deposit the same higher demand weeks creating a surplus of available weeks (back to supply again).

 

[Samuel]

Tikicarver,

Hope everything is well. When I recommended to assign a week 51 or the summer for 2007 it was because you need to assign your week atleast 120 days in advance so you can deposit it with II to get the bonus week with your program at your resort. The summer is not the best trader but it is the best with what you have to work with to get the bonus week. Also, the chances of a major holiday being available for 2007 are slim and you cannot assign Feb or Mar for 2007 because it is already with the 120 days. FYI: Summer weeks in Vegas or Arizona or Palm Desert deposited with II trade well. Its doesnt matter where it is because everyone travels in the summer. If all the inventory for the beaches and the mountains are gone in the summer and you need a vacation, would you go to Tahiti Village in Vegas, or Marriott Desert Springs in Palm Desert, or Sheraton Desert Oasis in Arizona?? The answer is probably yes because most people have to travel in the summer and a vacation is better than staying at home!
FYI: II also determines trading power if the unit is used and in the summer almost everything gets confirmed.

If you still have any questions please feel free to contact me.

Samuel

 

[tikicarver1]

Sammy

thanks for the info.
You are right, people do go to Vegas in the summer even though it is 100 degrees every day. I use to work at an air tour company in Vegas. From May to Sept we were very busy every day. In the winter things were very slow.

Next year I will try to reserve a week in April, since that looks like the highest demand time.