This doesn't answer Art's question about 2026 but I wonder the same thing.
Always looking at the value of my deeded ownership at The Point. So, forgive my rambling.
I always go Thanksgiving week. Never tried Christmas.
Waiting for the Christmas week reservation window to open seems risky for an F/F owner since the competition for OF will be tough and the earlier prime summer weeks will have been taken by then, so can't go back for them.
At $2767.19 that is $395.31 per night for OF at the Point @ Poipu 2025. Deeded reservation.
I just saw on Redweek that there are three weeks available for Christmas week this december for $357 per night.
One rented for $286/night for Cristmas this coming December. One rented for $200/night this past August.
Keep in mind that Christmas week OF would be 19,500 points per week vs. the regular 15,500 for August.
Jan/Feb 2026 OFs listed for $400-$500 on Redweek.
Some Redweek ads were quite varied.
Garden view was as low as $189, some views were over $500/night.
Not everyone checks the market value when posting, it seems.
Oh, I just remembered that Redweek tacks on their fees to the renter so that inflates the list prices by about 10%.
Just one more factor in this evaluation.
Currently there are 6 TUG rental ads from $1300 to $3500/week. Mostly in the $2,000's.
Several were for unreserved points weeks so availablity could vary.
So Hilton.com prices might be not the best measurement of true value per point either.
However, a real and reliable data point for sure.
Points owner reservation prices: (2025)
At $0.21 per point 19500=$4095 +$229=$4324/week or $617.71/night peak week (2025 prices)
$3255/ week for non-peak week (15500 pts) plus $229 = $497/night
Anyway, as a deeded owner (since 1996) I have occasionally been looking at my MFs and comparing the rental prices.
If I am not too picky about dates it seems I could easily rent into weeks for near or even below MFs.
Points owners, the same applies.
This is without the 360 day (or 13 mo) reservation window competition and without considering the acquisition cost (now sunk).
Sunk costs:
$4/point x 15500 = $62,000 for the unlucky recent developer purchaser.
Resale points: Free plus closing maybe. (with Collection restrictions)
Resale Deeds: $0 (I've seen 2 free OF recently, tempting) to $3,000 maybe, depending on view (plus closing).
I paid $14,000 for a F/F deed in 1996 from Sunterra, branded Embassy Suites.
Lastly, as a deeded owner, I feel trapped into staying at P@P in peak weeks to maximize value due to high MFs.
Trading out seems like trading down in value, unless you are lucky or savvy in the systems.
Renting out my week: it seems unlikely that I could profit, unless I get lucky and am patient.
Point owners have more flexibilty to optimize value, of course.