My 1st bonafide Wyndham resale contract purchase!

[HitchHiker71]

Unlike most on TUG, I went the opposite route and acquired Wyndham developer points first via two PIC contracts to obtain temp VIPP and permanent VIPG without breaking the bank. Since that time I've been learning from all of you great folks about the intricacies of all things Wyndham, and as of today, I've acquired my 1st bonafide resale contract via eBay! It's a larger contract from NH with 688,500 annual points, and will serve as my foray into some rentals while also giving us more raw points to consume when the need arises. I know it'll be 90-120 days until I actually "see" these points within my Wyndham account, but figured I would share the news since I'm excited about my new resale acquisition!

Thanks to everyone here who has helped to educate me over the past year!

 

[cbyrne1174]

Doesn't VIPG still cost at least $22,000 via PIC plus? That's the cheapest route I was able to see. 105,000 points at $170 per thousand plus a bonus 105,000 deedback deed for about $4,000 with 2 three bedroom PICs was the cheapest I saw. I want VIPG, but $22,000 is still too much IMO.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Doesn't VIPG still cost at least $22,000 via PIC plus? That's the cheapest route I was able to see. 105,000 points at $170 per thousand plus a bonus 105,000 deedback deed for about $4,000 with 2 three bedroom PICs was the cheapest I saw. I want VIPG, but $22,000 is still too much IMO.

I spent about 27.5k after rebates or $134/1000 for 210k of CWA points (plus 590k bonus points). Timeshares are all about the long term benefits. My MFs on my PIC contracts are MUCH lower than any current Wyndham MF, as follows:

PIC 1: $2.96/1000
PIC 2: $3.38/1000

CWA: $5.99/1000

Taking Wyndham contract fees out of the equation (which are a constant across all contracts), if I had purchased the same 508k via CWA resale at $5/1000 on the resale market, let's run the numbers:

Initial contact purchase: $27.5k
PIC 1: $753/year
PIC 2: $859/year
CWA: $1257.90/year
TOTAL/YEAR: $2869.90/year

Initial contract purchase: $2540.00
CWA: $4300.82/year

So every year I'm paying $1430.92 less in annual fees. That puts my breakeven at 19 years after which I'm paying less per year than if I had purchased the same amount of CWA points all via resale. That doesn't include any perceived value, such as discount window bookings and free room upgrades. I've run these numbers as well, and assuming 50% of my bookings occur within the discount window, and receiving room upgrades about 50% of the time, my breakeven falls to 11-12 years. I'm actually ahead of my predictions for both discount window booking percentages, and am currently at 70% on discount window bookings (meaning 70% of the points I've booked have been within the 60 day window) and 90% on 60 day window free room upgrades (vs 50% plan). Currently I'm at breakeven in less than 10 years, and I'm one year in as of today.

The goal in purchasing the larger resale NH contract, which has MFs at $4.26/1000 - is to use most of the points for rentals to offset my annual MFs to get to breakeven annually - whereby my net annual spend on timeshares is zero.

 

[cbyrne1174]

Yeah but if one of your PICs doesn't renew its contract with RCI and goes with II instead, you lose your VIPG status until you buy another 49,000 points. That's what's turning me off from going that route.

 

[jwalk03]

I mean that’s possible, but it’s a pretty low risk proposition. To me the high risk is Wyndham continuing to de-value VIP benefits. Off course you would still break even eventually even without your VIP benefits because of your supper low maintenance fees.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Yeah but if one of your PICs doesn't renew its contract with RCI and goes with II instead, you lose your VIPG status until you buy another 49,000 points. That's what's turning me off from going that route.

Wyndham could also place stricter limits on all resale contracts tomorrow and not allow CWP exchanges across resorts for resale purchases. There's always the possibility of future changes. All any of us can do is make the best decision possible with the current information and assumptions in place today.

 

[dagger1]

I spent about 27.5k after rebates or $134/1000 for 210k of CWA points (plus 590k bonus points). Timeshares are all about the long term benefits. My MFs on my PIC contracts are MUCH lower than any current Wyndham MF, as follows:

PIC 1: $2.96/1000
PIC 2: $3.38/1000

CWA: $5.99/1000

Taking Wyndham contract fees out of the equation (which are a constant across all contracts), if I had purchased the same 508k via CWA resale at $5/1000 on the resale market, let's run the numbers:

Initial contact purchase: $27.5k
PIC 1: $753/year
PIC 2: $859/year
CWA: $1257.90/year
TOTAL/YEAR: $2869.90/year

Initial contract purchase: $2540.00
CWA: $4300.82/year

So every year I'm paying $1430.92 less in annual fees. That puts my breakeven at 19 years after which I'm paying less per year than if I had purchased the same amount of CWA points all via resale. That doesn't include any perceived value, such as discount window bookings and free room upgrades. I've run these numbers as well, and assuming 50% of my bookings occur within the discount window, and receiving room upgrades about 50% of the time, my breakeven falls to 11-12 years. I'm actually ahead of my predictions for both discount window booking percentages, and am currently at 70% on discount window bookings (meaning 70% of the points I've booked have been within the 60 day window) and 90% on 60 day window free room upgrades (vs 50% plan). Currently I'm at breakeven in less than 10 years, and I'm one year in as of today.

The goal in purchasing the larger resale NH contract, which has MFs at $4.26/1000 - is to use most of the points for rentals to offset my annual MFs to get to breakeven annually - whereby my net annual spend on timeshares is zero.

I think you left out an important number in your two “contract” comparisons above. You left out the earning capability of the $24,960 sunk cost of the PIC1/PIC2/CWA contact compared to the CWA contract ($27,500 - $2,540 = $24,960). This could easily throw off $2,496 annually in dividends thus reducing your “real” CWA MF’s to $1,804 ($4,300 - $2,496 = $1,804) or $1,065 per year less than the PIC1//PIC2/CWA contract. The resale CWA owner will be ahead $1,065 every year, including the years after the owner utilizes Ovation and gets rid of his points.

 

[dgalati]

I think you left out an important number in your two “contract” comparisons above. You left out the earning capability of the $24,960 sunk cost of the PIC1/PIC2/CWA contact compared to the CWA contract ($27,500 - $2,540 = $24,960). This could easily throw off $2,496 annually in dividends thus reducing your “real” CWA MF’s to $1,804 ($4,300 - $2,496 = $1,804) or $1,065 per year less than the PIC1//PIC2/CWA contract. The resale CWA owner will be ahead $1,065 every year, including the years after the owner utilizes Ovation and gets rid of his points.

I still say rent from a vip if you travel within the 60 day window. Its the Cheapest way to travel with no obligations to maintenance fees or costs to purchase.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I think you left out an important number in your two “contract” comparisons above. You left out the earning capability of the $24,960 sunk cost of the PIC1/PIC2/CWA contact compared to the CWA contract ($27,500 - $2,540 = $24,960). This could easily throw off $2,496 annually in dividends thus reducing your “real” CWA MF’s to $1,804 ($4,300 - $2,496 = $1,804) or $1,065 per year less than the PIC1//PIC2/CWA contract. The resale CWA owner will be ahead $1,065 every year, including the years after the owner utilizes Ovation and gets rid of his points.

I intentionally left out opportunity costing as also embedded is the assumption of future returns as well as a plethora of perceived value judgments.

But, let’s go down this rabbit hole for just a bit.

How many people have averaged a 10% annual dividend return since year 2000? To say nothing of market returns? Very few is the answer, so it is far from an accurate assumption to make that the far overused historical reference to a 10% market return over a 120 year period has been the case in today’s modern secular markets.

If we are going to do this right then we need to toss aside anecdotal assumptions and actually use real factual historical investment data (my degree is in finance - with a focus on securities analysis). The average DJIA since Jan 2000 through May 2019 including dividend reinvestment was 4.489%, without dividends it was 2.054%. This indicates that roughly, dividends added under 2.5% per annum over the past 20 years. That’s a far cry from 10%.

So using real numbers based upon actual real historical averages over the past 20 years, the CWA resale owner would have earned 24960*0.024=$599 per year in dividends. $4300-$600=$3700. So, certainly better than it was as you point out, and it will push out the time to breakeven, but the problem with this assumption is the guarantee of any future returns. Ask anyone from Japan who invested heavily in the Japanese markets in the 1980’s if they saw any positive returns over the next 15+ years, but I think we all know the answer already.

We would then also need to bake into the analysis the same assumptions for the first use case, meaning that the net positive delta would be invested over that same time period. We can do the math if we really want to do so, but the problem with opportunity costing is that there are too many assumptions in play when it comes to the future.

Heck, your average American would take every last dime of any money saved buying resale and go buy a new car.


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[dagger1]

I intentionally left out opportunity costing as also embedded is the assumption of future returns as well as a plethora of perceived value judgments.

But, let’s go down this rabbit hole for just a bit.

How many people have averaged a 10% annual dividend return since year 2000? To say nothing of market returns? Very few is the answer, so it is far from an accurate assumption to make that the far overused historical reference to a 10% market return over a 120 year period has been the case in today’s modern secular markets.

If we are going to do this right then we need to toss aside anecdotal assumptions and actually use real factual historical investment data (my degree is in finance - with a focus on securities analysis). The average DJIA since Jan 2000 through May 2019 including dividend reinvestment was 4.489%, without dividends it was 2.054%. This indicates that roughly, dividends added under 2.5% per annum over the past 20 years. That’s a far cry from 10%.

So using real numbers based upon actual real historical averages over the past 20 years, the CWA resale owner would have earned 24960*0.024=$599 per year in dividends. $4300-$600=$3700. So, certainly better than it was as you point out, and it will push out the time to breakeven, but the problem with this assumption is the guarantee of any future returns. Ask anyone from Japan who invested heavily in the Japanese markets in the 1980’s if they saw any positive returns over the next 15+ years, but I think we all know the answer already.

We would then also need to bake into the analysis the same assumptions for the first use case, meaning that the net positive delta would be invested over that same time period. We can do the math if we really want to do so, but the problem with opportunity costing is that there are too many assumptions in play when it comes to the future.

Heck, your average American would take every last dime of any money saved buying resale and go buy a new car.


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I really don’t have any idea how most people invest, but a 10% return is fairly easy to get, many REIT’s pay that or more. I agree that I wouldn’t invest everything I own in these REITS, but I would definitely rather put the $24K in one of those vehicles than into Wyndham’s pockets. The $2500 annual dividends are just as real as the MF’s we pay, so I will stand by my number. But what I really like is the fact that I keep my original $24K and Wyndham doesn’t get it. That makes it a double win from my perspective. I do agree a smaller retail purchase combined with PIC week’s is the way to go if one desires to go down the Wyndham VIP rabbit hole. But Wyndham could do away with the PIC strategy anytime they want. Many enjoy the VIP perks. I prefer keeping my money and using the annual dividends to pay MF’s. The numbers are much worse for those who have paid retail to climb aboard the VIP train....

 

[HitchHiker71]

I really don’t have any idea how most people invest, but a 10% return is fairly easy to get, many REIT’s pay that or more. I agree that I wouldn’t invest everything I own in these REITS, but I would definitely rather put the $24K in one of those vehicles than into Wyndham’s pockets. The $2500 annual dividends are just as real as the MF’s we pay, so I will stand by my number.

Understood. My point was that whenever performing financial metrics analysis, or really any kind of statistical analysis, we cannot use anecdotal data, we must use actual historical averages.

I have two smaller IRAs that have maintained a 50% CROR over the past several years, mostly due to some timed stock picks during the Great Recession on my part that have generated 1000% returns since I purchased them at their lows. I could use my anecdotal data to easily show that compared to your paltry 10% dividend, simply investing my annual savings I would come out way ahead, but my personal experience is anecdotal by definition and therefore cannot be used for statistical purposes. Overall there are simply too many variables to consider when we attempt to insert opportunity costing.

But what I really like is the fact that I keep my original $24K and Wyndham doesn’t get it. That makes it a double win from my perspective. I do agree a smaller retail purchase combined with PIC week’s is the way to go if one desires to go down the Wyndham VIP rabbit hole. But Wyndham could do away with the PIC strategy anytime they want. Many enjoy the VIP perks. I prefer keeping my money and using the annual dividends to pay MF’s. The numbers are much worse for those who have paid retail to climb aboard the VIP train....

Agree 100%. PIC is the ONLY way I’ve been able to get to any semblance of a reasonable breakeven. Otherwise I could not have justified any developer purchase. Purchasing 718k of CWA developer points, even if we assume $100/1000 points, would come out to $72,000 dollars. Way too much!



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[ecwinch]

not allow CWP exchanges across resorts for resale purchases. There's always the possibility of future changes. All any of us can do is make the best decision possible with the current information and assumptions in place today.

While I agree with your general thesis, you went too far with that specific example. Much like the Worldmark program, since all members pay the same program fee - the Fairshare Vacation Plan Trust has to provide the same benefits to all members regardless of how they purchased - i.e. exchange across resorts (which is the purpose of the trust) and RCI membership.

But nothing prevents the developer from offering additional benefits to their loyal customers (i.e. those who purchased from them) - as long as Wyndham is reimbursing the trust for those benefits. Which based on various disclosures that Wyndham has made on investor update calls they appear to be doing. So they are fine with offering VIP benefits, or even Club Pass. As those benefits are from Wyndham, and not the Trust.

Which is the same as it is in Worldmark The Club. Every WM member has the same rights provided by the Club. And there - as here - the developer provides Travelshare benefits and access to internal exchange options with WM South Pacific and Club Wyndham.

 

[capital city]

I think that one thing people miss about opportunity cost is if that person would have invested that money if they didnt purchase the timeshare. If they would have just left it in a .5% savings then there is no real opportunity cost. Personally I have a set amount I put in IRA's every year so if I have extra money it goes towards my mortgage. My mortgage is 4% so anything I pay extra in my mind earns me or saves me 4% annually until the mortgage is paid off or really until it would have been paid off had I not paid it off early. Of course this is something each individual has to be honest with themselves about. If in reality you would take that 27k and your 2017 Escalade and traded up to a 2020 Escalade then the timeshare purchase looks like a no brainer at that point.

 

[dagger1]

I still say rent from a vip if you travel within the 60 day window. Its the Cheapest way to travel with no obligations to maintenance fees or costs to

I think that one thing people miss about opportunity cost is if that person would have invested that money if they didnt purchase the timeshare. If they would have just left it in a .5% savings then there is no real opportunity cost. Personally I have a set amount I put in IRA's every year so if I have extra money it goes towards my mortgage. My mortgage is 4% so anything I pay extra in my mind earns me or saves me 4% annually until the mortgage is paid off or really until it would have been paid off had I not paid it off early. Of course this is something each individual has to be honest with themselves about. If in reality you would take that 27k and your 2017 Escalade and traded up to a 2020 Escalade then the timeshare purchase looks like a no brainer at that point.

Exactly and well put. This is pure conjecture, but it’s likely “resale” buyers, who have generally researched and extensively thought out their purchase, are more likely to see the advantage of investing the “Wyndham” windfall (the money they didn’t give Wyndham) into a REIT or MLP and generate a 10%-12% return (thus paying some or all of their MF’s (VIP PIC aided vs VIP Retail). This is an absolute nobrainer for some. But there are definitely those who are happy with .5%-2% returns... Imagine those who pay full retail ANd settle for a 1% return on their investments.....

 

[HitchHiker71]

While I agree with your general thesis, you went too far with that specific example. Much like the Worldmark program, since all members pay the same program fee - the Fairshare Vacation Plan Trust has to provide the same benefits to all members regardless of how they purchased - i.e. exchange across resorts (which is the purpose of the trust) and RCI membership.

But nothing prevents the developer from offering additional benefits to their loyal customers (i.e. those who purchased from them) - as long as Wyndham is reimbursing the trust for those benefits. Which based on various disclosures that Wyndham has made on investor update calls they appear to be doing. So they are fine with offering VIP benefits, or even Club Pass. As those benefits are from Wyndham, and not the Trust.

Which is the same as it is in Worldmark The Club. Every WM member has the same rights provided by the Club. And there - as here - the developer provides Travelshare benefits and access to internal exchange options with WM South Pacific and Club Wyndham.

Agreed it was a bit extreme and all but impossible from the perspective you outline here. However, I understand that Disney has recently implemented a resale limitation whereby resale buyers will only have access to a certain set of existing resorts - not all of them, and any new resorts or services added will also not be accessible to resale contracts. I've heard similar rumblings within the HGVC crowd. How is Disney doing this? Not sure. I could surmise that they are creating a new trust or some kind of new entity that all future resorts will be a part of. The two trusts would have the ability to exchange - however all resale contracts within the current trust will not have the ability to exchange with the new trust - easily done. Wyndham could easily do this same thing. Once you get this model set up, the timeshare company could then migrate certain high value resorts to the new trust, and in the process deny resale owners from booking into those resorts. There are lots of options when you get creative. Will any of this happen? Your guess is as good as mine but I would say probably not. Then again, stranger things have happened.

 

[dagger1]

Agreed it was a bit extreme and all but impossible from the perspective you outline here. However, I understand that Disney has recently implemented a resale limitation whereby resale buyers will only have access to a certain set of existing resorts - not all of them, and any new resorts or services added will also not be accessible to resale contracts. I've heard similar rumblings within the HGVC crowd. How is Disney doing this? Not sure. I could surmise that they are creating a new trust or some kind of new entity that all future resorts will be a part of. The two trusts would have the ability to exchange - however all resale contracts within the current trust will not have the ability to exchange with the new trust - easily done. Wyndham could easily do this same thing. Once you get this model set up, the timeshare company could then migrate certain high value resorts to the new trust, and in the process deny resale owners from booking into those resorts. There are lots of options when you get creative. Will any of this happen? Your guess is as good as mine but I would say probably not. Then again, stranger things have happened.

Timeshare developers are just like any other company, they exist to make a profit and reward their shareholders. It is highly likely that Wyndham and others will continue to search for ways to increase profits, and a situation like you describe could happen. This is another benefit of not giving Wyndham a lot of money and keeping it where you choose: the ability to just hand the points back to Wyndham if they adversely change (even legally) the terms/benefits of ownership. Future changes will definitely benefit the Timeshare Developers/Managers. They probably will not benefit the deeded owners. And as you so aptly pointed out, severe restrictions could be placed on resale owners. In this case Wyndham may have to deal with mass foreclosures...

 

[HitchHiker71]

I think you left out an important number in your two “contract” comparisons above. You left out the earning capability of the $24,960 sunk cost of the PIC1/PIC2/CWA contact compared to the CWA contract ($27,500 - $2,540 = $24,960). This could easily throw off $2,496 annually in dividends thus reducing your “real” CWA MF’s to $1,804 ($4,300 - $2,496 = $1,804) or $1,065 per year less than the PIC1//PIC2/CWA contract. The resale CWA owner will be ahead $1,065 every year, including the years after the owner utilizes Ovation and gets rid of his points.

Let's go down another rabbit hole that I ran numbers on based upon my previously mentioned assumptions. Let's dive into the perceived value benefits of VIP bookings, and my assumptions made for 50% of all points bookings falling in the 60 day window, and 50% automatic room upgrades. I have 718k annual points, plus 590k of bonus points (already used them all). For ease of analysis, I will not include the bonus points. I will also not include the fact that I'm currently VIPP and enjoy a 50% booking discount through Sept 2020 - I will only include a 35% VIPG discount for analytics.

718k/2=359k

359k/0.65=552k (35% VIPG discount)
359k/0.75=~479k (25% automatic room upgrades)

552k-359k=193k
479k-359k=120k
193k+120k=313k

718k+313k=1031k

Now let's run the same numbers again, but in the second scenario, the resale buyer has to purchase 1031k annual points since they have no discount window access and no automatic upgrade capabilities:

Initial contact purchase: $27.5k
PIC 1: $753/year
PIC 2: $859/year
CWA: $1257.90/year
TOTAL/YEAR: $2869.90

Initial contract purchase: $5155.00
CWA: $6175.69/year

Annual delta: 6175.69-2869.90=$3305.79

27.5k-5155=$22345
22345/3305.79=6.76 years breakeven (best case)

Now, let's even take your lofty 10% annual return assumption into account on the investment:

$22345*10%=$2235

Let's run the scenario again:

6175.69-2235-2869.90=1070.79

22345/1070.79=20.87 years breakeven (worst case)

Now let's run the same scenario using the actual documented average dividend investment returns over the past 20 years:

$22345*2.5%=$558.63

Let's run the scenario again:

6175.69-558.63-2869.90=$2747.16

22345/2747.16=8.13 years breakeven (likely case)

I've resorted to using anecdotal data here for both my scenario and for investment returns, but even using both, and using the "worst case" assumption above, I achieve breakeven after just over 8 years after which, all other things being equal, I'm then ahead of the resale buyer. To be clear, all other things being equal is a huge assumption, as are any future assumptions, but if we're going to perform opportunity costing, we have to make certain assumptions.

 

[dagger1]

Very interesting evaluation, but I prefer using mine for the following reasons: 1. My easily achievable return saves me $1,065 per year as I have shown above. As correctly pointed out, some folks are content with money markets, mutual funds etc., but others (myself included are not). 2. I also keep the $24K and don’t give it to Wyndham, thus earning these returns not only for my lifetime but passing them on to my children as well. 3. For this $1,065 per year I give up VIP benefits. This is where your analysis has merit and these benefits are obviously important to many people. But not for me. We plan significantly in advance and reserve where/when/size units we need. Waiting for upgrades or for points discounts is not an option for us because we travel with so many people and during peak seasons at desirable locations. So going from a 2BR to a 3BR 45 days out wouldn’t work for us: we book the 3BR 13 months out because we need it and will use it.
Finally, resale buyers do not chase VIP benefits by buying twice the points they need. They are generally not booking in the 60 day window because they may not get what they need when they need it. It becomes a “hoping” game which is a little uncertain for many. So their MF’s are half of what was quoted above (because they are not trying to achieve VIP benefits by sheer volume of points.). Also, for the resale owners who does buy double the points (thus doubling their MF’s), they do not have to wait until 60 days out and get stuck with undesirable locations or smaller units than they need; they book prime units/weeks 13 months out, a considerable advantage over the Wyndham VIP owner.

 

[ecwinch]

Disney is such a unicorn, that using them a benchmark is useless. I mean a timeshare system where you don’t lose 90% of value on resale....WOW!

The HIVC Signature collection is an interesting concept ... but as I understand it resale buyers of Signature ownership interests don’t lose the ability to reserve HIVC resorts .... if so it would be interesting to see how they structured that... because otherwise it sounds like a Club Pass type arrangement....

 

[ausman]

Let's go down another rabbit hole that I ran numbers on based upon my previously mentioned assumptions. Let's dive into the perceived value benefits of VIP bookings, and my assumptions made for 50% of all points bookings falling in the 60 day window, and 50% automatic room upgrades. I have 718k annual points, plus 590k of bonus points (already used them all). For ease of analysis, I will not include the bonus points. I will also not include the fact that I'm currently VIPP and enjoy a 50% booking discount through Sept 2020 - I will only include a 35% VIPG discount for analytics.

718k/2=359k

359k*1.35=484.65k

Let's assume the free room upgrades equate to a 25% increase in points on average over the original points bookings.

448.75k*1.25=606k effective points

718k+606k=1,324k effective points

Always interesting to see an analysis - personally I decided long ago that there was no way that levels of VIP made financial sense.Still it is good to revisit the topic from time to time and do so occasionally. Congratulations on achieving your goals though.

I didn't follow the logic above in a couple of places. I think you double counted and the line "718k+606k=1,324k effective points" should be 359K + 606K=965K. That is the 50% of points you didn't get discounts and upgrades on plus the 50% of points adjusted for those factors.

Also I think there is an error that goes the other way, points to which a discount of 35% is applied to, to result in 359K, is 552K and not 484.65K.

I didn't follow these potential changes through further.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Very interesting evaluation, but I prefer using mine for the following reasons: 1. My easily achievable return saves me $1,065 per year as I have shown above. As correctly pointed out, some folks are content with money markets, mutual funds etc., but others (myself included are not). 2. I also keep the $24K and don’t give it to Wyndham, thus earning these returns not only for my lifetime but passing them on to my children as well. 3. For this $1,065 per year I give up VIP benefits. This is where your analysis has merit and these benefits are obviously important to many people. But not for me. We plan significantly in advance and reserve where/when/size units we need. Waiting for upgrades or for points discounts is not an option for us because we travel with so many people and during peak seasons at desirable locations. So going from a 2BR to a 3BR 45 days out wouldn’t work for us: we book the 3BR 13 months out because we need it and will use it.

Agreed that usage patterns make a huge difference. We usually book our primary family vacation using ARP far in advance (the other half of the roughly 359k points that we don't use during the discount window). The other 50% we book a mix of long weekends during the discount window for the two of us since our kids are all now young adults. We have zero need to facilitate large family gatherings which appear to be a primary use case for you.

Finally, resale buyers do not chase VIP benefits by buying twice the points they need. They are generally not booking in the 60 day window because they may not get what they need when they need it. It becomes a “hoping” game which is a little uncertain for many. So their MF’s are half of what was quoted above (because they are not trying to achieve VIP benefits by sheer volume of points.). Also, for the resale owners who does buy double the points (thus doubling their MF’s), they do not have to wait until 60 days out and get stuck with undesirable locations or smaller units than they need; they book prime units/weeks 13 months out, a considerable advantage over the Wyndham VIP owner.

Resale buyers don't book within the 60 day window because they don't have any possible motivation to receive any discount, and therefore have no reason to even attempt to do so - so why even try? Better to book as far in advance as possible. For us, it's not about any "hoping" game. If we want to book something prior to the discount window, we book it. If I can then find the same booking within the 60 day window, I book the same thing for 50% off points using our second named user on our account and then cancel the original booking (rebook/cancel instead of the old cancel/rebook approach). I've done this exact thing on three occasions over the past year. And the logic regarding resale buyers not chasing VIP benefits can apply both ways. If a resale buyer needs 1.5MM points to cover annual bookings for example, and they have use cases similar to mine, they could run the numbers and determine that they only need 700k points if they can exercise flexibility and take advantage of the discount booking windows and automatic upgrades.

 

[dagger1]

Agreed that usage patterns make a huge difference. We usually book our primary family vacation using ARP far in advance (the other half of the roughly 359k points that we don't use during the discount window). The other 50% we book a mix of long weekends during the discount window for the two of us since our kids are all now young adults. We have zero need to facilitate large family gatherings which appear to be a primary use case for you.



Resale buyers don't book within the 60 day window because they don't have any possible motivation to receive any discount, and therefore have no reason to even attempt to do so - so why even try? Better to book as far in advance as possible. For us, it's not about any "hoping" game. If we want to book something prior to the discount window, we book it. If I can then find the same booking within the 60 day window, I book the same thing for 50% off points using our second named user on our account and then cancel the original booking (rebook/cancel instead of the old cancel/rebook approach). I've done this exact thing on three occasions over the past year. And the logic regarding resale buyers not chasing VIP benefits can apply both ways. If a resale buyer needs 1.5MM points to cover annual bookings for example, and they have use cases similar to mine, they could run the numbers and determine that they only need 700k points if they can exercise flexibility and take advantage of the discount booking windows and automatic upgrades.

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I think we agree on most of what we have been discussing. We definitely agree on the resale owner booking 60 day out discussion, you restated exactly what I said, just more precisely. Most resale buyers, who I believe have studied their points purchases in depth before buying, buy what they need. Or add contracts until they have what they need. They don’t buy double what they need to try to compete with VIP perks, because they won’t use those points. Most resale buyers also own across different timeshare systems for quality reasons, desiring Marriott, Hyatt, Vistana and Hilton amenities that aren’t found at most of the mid or lower tier timeshares.
Congrats on the package you have put together. When those grandkids come along you are in for the time of your life!!

 

[HitchHiker71]

Always interesting to see an analysis - personally I decided long ago that there was no way that levels of VIP made financial sense.Still it is good to revisit the topic from time to time and do so occasionally. Congratulations on achieving your goals though.

I didn't follow the logic above in a couple of places. I think you double counted and the line "718k+606k=1,324k effective points" should be 359K + 606K=965K. That is the 50% of points you didn't get discounts and upgrades on plus the 50% of points adjusted for those factors.

Also I think there is an error that goes the other way, points to which a discount of 35% is applied to, to result in 359K, is 552K and not 484.65K.

I didn't follow these potential changes through further.

Agreed, I rushed the math this morning, so there may well be some oversights. I will try and update the post accordingly either later today or tomorrow.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I think we agree on most of what we have been discussing. We definitely agree on the resale owner booking 60 day out discussion, you restated exactly what I said, just more precisely. Most resale buyers, who I believe have studied their points purchases in depth before buying, buy what they need. Or add contracts until they have what they need. They don’t buy double what they need to try to compete with VIP perks, because they won’t use those points. Most resale buyers also own across different timeshare systems for quality reasons, desiring Marriott, Hyatt, Vistana and Hilton amenities that aren’t found at most of the mid or lower tier timeshares.
Congrats on the package you have put together. When those grandkids come along you are in for the time of your life!!

Agreed and I get the point about points chasing - people buying more points than they actually need - just to chase VIP benefits. I've seen many posts here and especially on FB groups where folks only have 126k annual points and are just fine with that point allotment since their vacation needs match up - only a week in a non-prime season resort that doesn't cost many points. Buy based upon the need for sure. We are in alignment on the concepts.

 

[dgalati]

I own and also rent from a VIP's when it is cheaper then using my points to book the vacation. Why use 220,000 points if I can get a VIP to rent within discount window and only pay 6/1000 on 110,000 or the 50% discount of points given to a VIP?