The short answer is that (if I understand all this stuff) I believe you will be OK. Now, for the long answer, keep reading.
When the new Marriott program was announced, there were a lot of detailed posts by internet travel bloggers. It was a ton of information, and confusing, so I tried to organize it to digest it. I can't give you the references (the actual URLs) for this information, but below is what I pulled in from a wide variety of sites under the topic of transfers to airline miles. Remember that under SPG, 20K SPG points becomes 25K airline miles in many programs. And remember that the SPG to Marriott Rewards transfer ratio was set at 1 SPG to 3 Marriott points.
Sorry if the following is a hodgepodge, since I just copied and pasted the info I found, but here goes...
Converting hotel points into airline miles
Starwood’s current mileage transfer option is here to stay. Going forward, you can convert Marriott Rewards points into airline miles at a 3:1 ratio, with a 15,000 point bonus for every 60,000 points transferred. This means that for all practical purposes, mileage transfer rates are staying the same (you used to be able to convert 20,000 Starpoints into 25,000 airline miles), which is fantastic news.
Marriott Hotel + Air Packages are also here to stay. However, I’m told that pricing on some of those packages may be changing in the near future, though the details of those changes haven’t yet been revealed. The Marriott hotel + air package will be sticking around, but prices will change (no firm details yet).
They essentially have adopted the Starwood airline points transfer structure. They will have “more than 40 airlines” to transfer to, with some airlines that were unique to Starwood and some unique to Marriott surviving into the combined program.
What’s more they’re keeping points transfer bonuses. Today transferring Starpoints into 20,000 miles generates a bonus of 5000 miles. They’ve kept this, and simply adjusted the numbers of the new points currency, just multiplying by three. You’ll be able to transfer your Marriott Rewards points into airline miles (like you currently can with Starwood Preferred Guest). For every three points you transfer you’ll receive one airline mile, you’ll also get a 5,000 mile bonus for every 60,000 points you transfer. This is the same as the current SPG program.
The only real change is that the credit card itself isn’t going to be as strong for earning as Starwood’s card is today, so it won’t be as lucrative as a credit card spend to airline miles program.
You can currently transfer Starwood points to 30+ airlines at a
ratio of 1:1, with a bonus 5,000 miles for every increment of 20,000 Starwood points you transfer. Folks were worried that this benefit would disappear, but it is
NOT! It’s actually getting better.
You can transfer Marriott points to airlines at a ratio of 3:1 (3 Marriott points = 1 airline mile). And you’ll get a bonus 15,000 miles for every 60,000 points you transfer. That’s a ratio equivalent to Starwood’s transfer rate and bonus, as 1 Starwood point = 3 Marriott points.
And there will be 10 additional transfer partners! So you’ll be able to transfer your points to more airlines at a good rate than ever before.
· From Marriott website: You’ll be able to transfer points to more than 40 airlines, including new options, such as Virgin Australia, Aegean Airlines and Air New Zealand. The new ratio will be 3 points for one mile. Plus, starting in August, we’ll add 15,000 points for every 60,000 points you transfer to airline miles, providing you with a total of 25,000 miles in the airline program of your choice.
Many people have long used SPG cards as the best way to earn airline miles. In the old days, most options for earning airline miles for spend were one to one: one mile per dollar spent. With SPG, though, 20,000 Starpoints gives you 25,000 miles. So spend on SPG cards currently offers the equivalent of 1.25 miles per dollar as long as you always transfer Starpoints in 20K chunks.
When the programs merge in August, we’ll still be able to get the same value from our Starpoints. Remember that they’ll have been converted 1 to 3, so 20,000 Starpoints will now be 60,000 points. Accordingly, the transfer ratio to airlines will be 60,000 to 25,000. That’s great. The value of our existing Starpoints will be preserved!