Colorado peeps - need your thoughts on April weather

[klpca]

We are considering a swing through Black Canyon of the Gunnison and Mesa Verde, possible the middle of next April. I know that no one can predict anything, but in an average year, would these locations most likely have snow on the ground? Is it even worth it to try to visit before May? Any advice? Thanks!

 

[travelhacker]

We are considering a swing through Black Canyon of the Gunnison and Mesa Verde, possible the middle of next April. I know that no one can predict anything, but in an average year, would these locations most likely have snow on the ground? Is it even worth it to try to visit before May? Any advice? Thanks!

I haven't spent much time in that area of Colorado during that time of year.

It looks like elevation is between 7000 and 8000 feet. I think that's too early. It would have been just fine this year, but it was a historically bad snow year.

I would think there will be snow on the ground and lots of mud. I'd wait until well into May and ideally June.

 

[davidvel]

We are considering a swing through Black Canyon of the Gunnison and Mesa Verde, possible the middle of next April. I know that no one can predict anything, but in an average year, would these locations most likely have snow on the ground? Is it even worth it to try to visit before May? Any advice? Thanks!

On an average year you could have mud or a foot of snowfall.

 

[emeryjre]

The people downstream will be hoping the area has 6 feet of snow
Not trying to spoil your trip
But an above average year is what people who rely on Colorado River Water are praying for

 

[klpca]

Thanks all. It’s kind of what I expected actually (just didn’t want it to be so!). We’ll shift the trip south and try another time for those parks.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Thanks all. It’s kind of what I expected actually (just didn’t want it to be so!). We’ll shift the trip south and try another time for those parks.

I wouldn't do it, so I think that's a wise move to wait. I would look into a trip in September for great weather and low crowds. Summer break is crazy in those areas.

There is a Wyndham in Durango that is pretty nice for a stay. All units are one bedroom. We stayed in December with our grandkids for the Polar Express.

 

[Luanne]

We are at 7000 feet here in Santa Fe. April is our worth weather month in my opinion. We get a lot of wind here. Some years we do have snow, some years we don't.

 

[jeffox]

On an average year you could have mud or a foot of snowfall.

This is about as close as your going to get at this time.

 

[mountainboy]

The ongoing Super El Niño is anticipated to bring cooler-than-average and wetter-than-average weather to both Black Canyon of the Gunnison and Mesa Verde National Parks in April 2027. [1]
During historically strong El Niño events, the sub-tropical jet stream shifts south, funneling consistent storm tracks across the Four Corners region. This pattern will extend moisture well into the spring before the El Niño weakens later in 2027. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park
The park is positioned on the edge of the enhanced southern storm track, resulting in highly unpredictable spring conditions. [1, 2]

• • Temperature: Average daytime highs normally reach the mid-50s°F (13°C), but are anticipated to tilt cooler than normal. Nighttime lows frequently drop below freezing. [1]
  • Precipitation: April is historically transitional, but expect above-average precipitation. Because of the elevation (around 8,000 feet at the South Rim), much of this enhanced moisture will manifest as heavy spring snowstorms rather than rain. [1]
  • Park Impact: The high probability of lingering snow and ice means the scenic South Rim Drive beyond the visitor center may experience delayed openings. Inner canyon routes will remain highly hazardous, slick, and subject to winter-like conditions.

Mesa Verde National Park
Located further south in Colorado, Mesa Verde sits directly in the target zone for El Niño-fueled storm systems. [1, 2]

• • Temperature: Normal April highs sit near 60°F (16°C), but will likely track colder than average due to extensive cloud cover and persistent storms. [1]
  • Precipitation: Expect a noticeably wetter-than-average month. While the valley floor and lower ruins may see heavy rain, the higher elevations of Chapin Mesa and Wetherill Mesa (over 7,000–8,500 feet) are prone to significant spring snowfall. [1, 2]
  • Park Impact: Increased moisture and freeze-thaw cycles elevate the risk of rockfalls along the steep main park road. Ranger-guided cliff dwelling tours, which typically begin phase-ins in April, could face delays or cancellations due to icy or muddy trail conditions.

Historical Comparison
This setup mirrors past historic Super El Niño events, such as the springs of 1983, 1998, and 2016, which brought late-season mountain snowpacks and unseasonably damp springs to Southwest Colorado. [1, 2]

 

[emeryjre]

The ongoing Super El Niño is anticipated to bring cooler-than-average and wetter-than-average weather to both Black Canyon of the Gunnison and Mesa Verde National Parks in April 2027. [1]
During historically strong El Niño events, the sub-tropical jet stream shifts south, funneling consistent storm tracks across the Four Corners region. This pattern will extend moisture well into the spring before the El Niño weakens later in 2027. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park
The park is positioned on the edge of the enhanced southern storm track, resulting in highly unpredictable spring conditions. [1, 2]

• • Temperature: Average daytime highs normally reach the mid-50s°F (13°C), but are anticipated to tilt cooler than normal. Nighttime lows frequently drop below freezing. [1]
  • Precipitation: April is historically transitional, but expect above-average precipitation. Because of the elevation (around 8,000 feet at the South Rim), much of this enhanced moisture will manifest as heavy spring snowstorms rather than rain. [1]
  • Park Impact: The high probability of lingering snow and ice means the scenic South Rim Drive beyond the visitor center may experience delayed openings. Inner canyon routes will remain highly hazardous, slick, and subject to winter-like conditions.

Mesa Verde National Park
Located further south in Colorado, Mesa Verde sits directly in the target zone for El Niño-fueled storm systems. [1, 2]

• • Temperature: Normal April highs sit near 60°F (16°C), but will likely track colder than average due to extensive cloud cover and persistent storms. [1]
  • Precipitation: Expect a noticeably wetter-than-average month. While the valley floor and lower ruins may see heavy rain, the higher elevations of Chapin Mesa and Wetherill Mesa (over 7,000–8,500 feet) are prone to significant spring snowfall. [1, 2]
  • Park Impact: Increased moisture and freeze-thaw cycles elevate the risk of rockfalls along the steep main park road. Ranger-guided cliff dwelling tours, which typically begin phase-ins in April, could face delays or cancellations due to icy or muddy trail conditions.

Historical Comparison
This setup mirrors past historic Super El Niño events, such as the springs of 1983, 1998, and 2016, which brought late-season mountain snowpacks and unseasonably damp springs to Southwest Colorado. [1, 2]

Let us hope the predictions are correct

Anyone watching the water levels in Lake Mead is praying for a wet, wet year

The snow melt on the Eastern Slope of the Rockies flows to the Missouri River
The big dam is the Garrison Dam and holds the water for Lake Sakakawea

Levels and flows are way down

Snow Baby Snow

 

[sue1947]

Mesa Verde, possible the middle of next April.

On the other hand: Focusing on the more desert area including Mesa Verde:
I did a loop around the 4 corners area in April 10-15 years ago. Weather added a bit to the 'ambiance' but nothing serious.
We flew into Phoenix and headed north. Snowing in Flagstaff, then again at Canyon de Chelly but it didn't impact driving at all; didn't stick on the roads. Some on the surrounding landscapes added contrast to the red rocks. The only real issue was at Navajo National Monument where the trail we wanted was closed due to ice (you have to go with a Ranger). Otherwise, we had decent weather with some warm sun in the mix as well and lots of wildflowers blooming at some spots, I liked that trip a lot for the variety.
We hit the following National parks/monuments/landmarks etc
Wupatki and Sunset Crater (I think Walnut canyon was closed for ice).
Monument Valley and Navajo National Monument and Valley of the Gods.
Goosenecks St Park and then north to Natural Bridges. East to Hovenweep and then Canyon of the Ancients (the hike at Sand Ck was really nice and the flowers were blooming).
Mesa Verde and then Aztec Ruins and then the highlight of the trip at Chaco Canyon.
West to Canyon de Chelly and then back down to Phoenix via Tonto National Monument.
There was a nice variety and some new ones have been added since, like Bears Ears or there are others nearby to add into the mix. The weather in April was fine with a tilt towards cool enough before the desert parts got too darn hot.

Another trip nearby hit a bunch of N Mex spots like El Morro NM (one of my all time favorites for the stories it tells) and Bandolier and then Pecos NM was an unexpected gem. We stayed at a timeshare in Santa Fe for this one. There are tons of these small sites to mix and match. The state page on the National park website lists everything in that state. I find it to be a good starting spot for ideas of places to explore.
Example for CO: CO NP site

 

[klpca]

Thank you @sue1947 ! We did a somewhat similar trip in April a few years ago (Sedona, Monument Valley, Arches, Canyonland, Gooseneck, Zion) and we did have some minor wind issues - our Antelope Canyon tour was cancelled and we arrived in Monument Valley in the middle of a sandstorm, but otherwise the weather was beautiful and it was one of our best trips ever. I would do it again in a minute but we haven’t settled on a final route. It depends on if we fly or drive.

Btw were you able to take a rental car to Chaco Canyon?

 

[klpca]

I almost slept through the sunrise in Monument Valley!

 

[sue1947]

Btw were you able to take a rental car to Chaco Canyon?

yes. I don't remember it being an issue. I've been driving dirt roads my whole life so it might not have occurred to me to check if there were any rental car restrictions. The roads were all fine.