For me, the Hilton Aspire pencils out to be the best value. For the $450 annual fee, I get $250 resort credit for paying my MFs, $250 towards airfare, and a free night I value at ~$550 since I use it where it would cost me 110,000 points. That gives using it a net value of $600.
The Hilton Surpass isn't bad. For the $95 annual fee, though, I've got to spend $15K to get a free night that would be worth $550 to me. I don't have much trouble spending that much in a year, but that still makes it's net value only $455. That value would decline a bit taking into account the differential point earning on the spend (2x for Hilton, 1x for restaurants or flights); depending on what category the $15K is spent in, that would be a cost of up to 30,000 points, which would be worth something like another 0 to $150 in lost value. That could be made up for if the spend is in the groceries category, where Surpass gets 6x and Aspire only gets 3x.
The Hilton Business Amex is slightly better - the annual fee and spend for a free night are the same as the Surpass, but the rewards categories work better in combination with Aspire because they are different. It still doesn't seem to add up enough to exceed the overall value of the Aspire.