The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19

[MULTIZ321]

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19.

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19

When will a disease stop spreading through a population? The formula is simple, but the variables are much more complicated.

www.wired.com

Richard

 

[pedro47]

Looking at the formula, looks liked we need to stay at home, limit our contacts, especially with anyone who has been infected or been around anyone who has been infected and finally, not to be involved in any large gatherings, IMHO.

Now I can understand why Europe have banned Americans from visiting Europe.

 

[PigsDad]

Looking at the formula, looks liked we need to stay at home, limit our contacts, especially with anyone who has been infected or been around anyone who has been infected and finally, not be involved in any large gatherings, IMHO.

And look how well that has worked so far...

Kurt

 

[geist1223]

Is there really "Herd Immunity?" If I remember correctly recently Tom Hanks reported that recent testing showed no antibodies, etc in his blood. So he is wondering if he could get it again. If this is true does that mean one would have to get the vaccine every couple of months?

 

[DannyTS]

Excellent article. I think the immunity studies should be much more granular geographically. I was looking at the one concerning Spain, the headline was that the immunity was 5% only. If you look at the map, the area that includes Madrid was at 14% but it included huge stretches of land, suburbs and villages. I bet the seropositivity is much higher downtown Madrid where it actually matters more because people tend to interact more (big companies, stores, public transit, tourism etc) than in an insulated village.

 

[DannyTS]

Is there really "Herd Immunity?" If I remember correctly recently Tom Hanks reported that recent testing showed no antibodies, etc in his blood. So he is wondering if he could get it again. If this is true does that mean one would have to get the vaccine every couple of months?

The antibody tests are not very informative at a personal level because they are not very accurate. Tom Hanks who is probably missing the spot light, might have had a false negative.
They are accurate enough though and they can paint a valuable picture for a certain geographic area.

 

[pedro47]

The spike in the virus started with the opening up in the states of Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Arizona stating that masks are not required, social distancing is a hoax, opening beaches and bars, and large gathering indoors and outdoors. Young adults traveling and partying without the concern of spreading Covid 19 to older Americans, friends and others

Look at the number of full hospital ICU units in the state of Florida and Texas.

Now you can the age group of 20 to 40 in the target coronavirus Category.

Look at New York, New Jersey and Connecticut they instituted strict rules and their numbers are down compared to those in the a South. IMHO.

 

[DannyTS]

The spike in the virus started with the opening up in the states of Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Arizona stating that masks are not required, social distancing is a hoax, opening beaches and bars, and large gathering indoors and outdoors. Young adults traveling and partying without the concern of spreading Covid 19 to older Americans, friends and others

Look at the number of full hospital ICU units in the state of Florida and Texas.

Now you can the age group of 20 to 40 in the target coronavirus Category.

Look at New York, New Jersey and Connecticut they instituted strict rules and their numbers are down compared to those in the a South. IMHO.

I feel we need to incorporate this article in the discussion. It makes sense that the transmission can be very fast initially because it touches the most susceptible to catch it but once those have immunity, it can slow down quite a bit. I think this is exactly the case in NYC, New Jersey that had already seen a large part of the population with immunity (NYC 25-30%). California on the other hand did not go fully through the first wave so they are starting now and the reopening and the protests affected the numbers quite a bit.

What we are seeing in Europe supports this theory. Many of the European countries have seen lower and lower cases despite the opening of schools, economy in general.

 

[Snazzylass]

The spike in the virus started with the opening up in the states of Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Arizona stating that masks are not required, social distancing is a hoax, opening beaches and bars, and large gathering indoors and outdoors. Young adults traveling and partying without the concern of spreading Covid 19 to older Americans, friends and others

I live in AZ. Masks are required just like in CA. No, they weren't always required, but no one said social distancing was a hoax. We are still working from home. Our activities are very limited and social distancing is being taken seriously. Most places are closed. My pool at my T/S is not open. My pool in my community is, but the clubhouse and gym are closed, and all pool furniture has been removed.
Yes, younger people were out at bars, but overall, activity is still very, very limited.

 

[DannyTS]

The spike in the virus started with the opening up in the states of Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Arizona stating that masks are not required, social distancing is a hoax, opening beaches and bars, and large gathering indoors and outdoors. Young adults traveling and partying without the concern of spreading Covid 19 to older Americans, friends and others

Look at the number of full hospital ICU units in the state of Florida and Texas.

Now you can the age group of 20 to 40 in the target coronavirus Category.

Look at New York, New Jersey and Connecticut they instituted strict rules and their numbers are down compared to those in the a South. IMHO.

look how similar the curves for Sweden and New York (although Sweden has done much better than New York and the first spike was much lower). This also supports the idea that some people are more sussceptible to catch it, then the transmission slows down quite a bit

 

[Snazzylass]

Is there really "Herd Immunity?" If I remember correctly recently Tom Hanks reported that recent testing showed no antibodies, etc in his blood. So he is wondering if he could get it again. If this is true does that mean one would have to get the vaccine every couple of months?

Do we know if everyone who has had it tests positive for the antibodies? I know younger people are being paid for their plasma if they have the antibodies, but is there an age limit for giving plasma? I know I am now too old to donate my bone marrow.

Even more upsetting about tests is Jimmie Johnson's experience. The 7-time NASCAR champion tested positive before last Sunday's Brickyard. So, he missed his first race in 19 years and 662 starts. Then on Monday and Tuesday, he tested negative. Explain that! I find this troubling. He's a world-class athlete trying to do the right thing. He isolated himself from his daughters. This makes me question these tests. He had no symptoms. He was only being tested because his wife had allergies and tested positive. No word if she has actually developed COVID or is now also testing negative.

 

[pedro47]

look how similar the curves for Sweden and New York (although Sweden has done much better than New York and the first spike was much lower). This also supports the idea that some people are more sussceptible to catch it, then the transmission slows down quite a bit
View attachment 23508

View attachment 23509

I liked your graphic . Numbers can be used to tell so many stories ..There is one major difference.... Population.
The population of Sweden is only 10,099,265 millions
The population of New York is 19,400,,000 millions.

 

[DannyTS]

It is true, I wanted to show more that neither had a spike after the first increase.

Otherwise Sweden has had 5500 deaths so far, New York 32,000 so Sweden has done 3 times better adjusted for the population.

 

[pedro47]

I feel the majority of New York death have come from .nursing home facilities .

 

[geekette]

Do we know if everyone who has had it tests positive for the antibodies? I know younger people are being paid for their plasma if they have the antibodies, but is there an age limit for giving plasma? I know I am now too old to donate my bone marrow.

Even more upsetting about tests is Jimmie Johnson's experience. The 7-time NASCAR champion tested positive before last Sunday's Brickyard. So, he missed his first race in 19 years and 662 starts. Then on Monday and Tuesday, he tested negative. Explain that! I find this troubling. He's a world-class athlete trying to do the right thing. He isolated himself from his daughters. This makes me question these tests. He had no symptoms. He was only being tested because his wife had allergies and tested positive. No word if she has actually developed COVID or is now also testing negative.

Bone marrow donation is a completely different thing! Plasma probably has no age limit on donation.

 

[Ken555]

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.
Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity is wishful thinking.

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes? — Vox

Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity could be wishful thinking.

apple.news

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

I feel the majority of New York death have come from .nursing home facilities .

the same in Sweden and other countries.

 

[DannyTS]

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.
Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity is wishful thinking.

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes? — Vox

Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity could be wishful thinking.

apple.news

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

So those that say they are waiting for a vaccine to go out of the house will have a very long time to wait. As some have said from the very beginning, we will have to learn how to live with it. Stopping everything and restarting when there is "no risk" is not an option.

 

[normab]

DH had a mild case. 2 months later he was tested for 2 immunoglobulins. Both came out negative. The doc warned him ahead that the tests were not necessarily informative.

So, we still take lots of precautions and follow the guidelines. “No one knows” is my mantra, because all the experts are still figuring it out. Just be responsible for yourself....

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Ingrained in all of us - probably genetically hard-wired via the forces of evolution - is that almost every person on this planet is not nearly as smart as they think they are. Any person who not only accepts that premise, but puts it into actual practice, will automatically move to the front of the pack in human intelligence.

That's a lead-in to the observation that the COVID virus is simply demonstrating that again. Reasonable assumptions and extrapolations made by experts based on past experience are being challenged. The reality is that we are groping our way through something for which there is no clear map -

Sometimes, I think a good way to think of this is to imagine a trek through a foggy world, in which the visually impaired are guiding the blind.

 

[MULTIZ321]

The Herd-Immunity Illusion.

A New Understanding of Herd Immunity

The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.

www.theatlantic.com

Richard

 

[Ken555]

The Herd-Immunity Illusion.

A New Understanding of Herd Immunity

The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.

www.theatlantic.com

Richard

Worth reading.


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[geist1223]

There was an Article on BBC today about a Study addressing post COVID19 Immunity. I have not included it because it is still undergoing Peer Review. But it appears to show that immunity after having COVID19 only lasts about 2 months. This would go along with what Tom Hanks said. So if there ever is a Vaccine for COVID19 (which I question) how long will it protect people?

 

[travelpager]

I live in AZ. Masks are required just like in CA. No, they weren't always required, but no one said social distancing was a hoax. We are still working from home. Our activities are very limited and social distancing is being taken seriously. Most places are closed. My pool at my T/S is not open. My pool in my community is, but the clubhouse and gym are closed, and all pool furniture has been removed.
Yes, younger people were out at bars, but overall, activity is still very, very limited.

Well, I live in TX. City and county officials have struggled to require masks and limit nonessential activity without even messaging support from state leadership until perhaps this week. Without difficulty, I can produce 3+ persons who readily dismiss social distancing as part of an overblown media campaign ("Is your toothbrush killing you? Tune in to find out more!") to hype up "something like the flu" that "hardly anyone dies from" unless "already old" or "sick anyway." Amidst the mixed messages from varying levels of government (not to be confused with the single, united message emanating from the Texas Medical Center and anyone who works in healthcare or medical research), businesses, especially small businesses with uneasy employees who need work/revenue as much as anyone else, struggle to require compliance by reluctant or recalcitrant customers with a point to prove. Some places are open and some are closed; restaurants are working outdoor dining and the curbside hustle as best they can, while many stores have reduced hours of operation (to allow time for cleaning or to acknowledge reduced traffic). Yelp is just one place where one can find disgruntled employees who say they or a co-worker reported that they had been exposed to Covid 19 but were "kept on the [work] schedule" anyway. The pool and gym at my club WERE open on a reservation basis, but the phased re-opening has stalled as the management/staff struggles with how to deal with the very young or, to be more precise, clueless or careless adults who keep forgetting that staff are vulnerable humans, too. (This last I know because I serve on the House Committee.) As graduates of high school biology who thought Texas opened up without the infrastructure necessary to manage the spread of the virus within a "business as usual" setting, "stir crazy" doesn't BEGIN to describe my household. We just returned from a week in Colorado (by car, of course), where news of home meant news of the latest records in new cases and/or new hospitalizations reported in a single day. I've got emails from friends in London, Barcelona and even NY asking, in essence, "Wth?" I don't know. We'll all make our way through this somehow, I guess, but dadgum what an incredibly ridiculous and tragic M E S S.

 

[SmithOp]

There was an Article on BBC today about a Study addressing post COVID19 Immunity. I have not included it because it is still undergoing Peer Review. But it appears to show that immunity after having COVID19 only lasts about 2 months. This would go along with what Tom Hanks said. So if there ever is a Vaccine for COVID19 (which I question) how long will it protect people?

I saw a response to that on CBS morning show, the resident expert Dr, and he said that vaccine would give a higher immunity and would include a second booster. He expected it to be good for a year, so it would be like another annual flu shot.


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