ROFR metric / Ongoing ROFR Activity

GregT · May 5, 2015

*** 5/1/16 - This link to the current, active ROFR database is added with the OP's permission: ROFR Experiences (www.rofr.net) ***

All,

I have had a few PMs asking me to compute ROFR metrics for various offers, which I am happy to do, and also asking for the history of this unofficial metric. The following thread is where we collected the data (such as it is).

I've taken the Points Value spreadsheet that TUGgers helped compile a couple of years back, and computed the ROFR metric for all weeks.

Accordingly, the attached is a hypothetical price of what should clear ROFR, if the metric can predict a ROFR exercise.

Please note, this approach is imperfect and I would hate to see a TUGger increase their bid based solely on this -- please make an offer price of what the week is worth to you. And please consult with a broker on what has been passing ROFR lately, they will have the most current information.

Anyone can compute their own ROFR metric:

1) Start with the DC Points that the underlying week is worth (example: 3,000 DC Points)
2) Multiply #1 by $10 per point (representing how much Marriott can sell the related points for if they ROFR it and deposit to the Trust -- example: 3,000 * $10/point = $30,000)
3) Take your Offer Price ($5,000?) and divide it by the result of #2 (example: $5,000 / $30,000 = 16.6%)
4) The resulting percentage will likely be between 5% - 35%.

My theory is that weeks where #4 is less than 23% have a greater probability of not passing ROFR than if #4 is greater than 23%. It is based on the linked thread up above.

I welcome comments, corrections and more recent data. Good luck!

Best,

Greg

samara64 · May 5, 2015

Thanks Greg. Great post.

spaulino · May 5, 2015

Great info here.. Thanks Greg!

SueDonJ · May 5, 2015

Wonderful, very helpful! But, math.

suzannesimon · May 5, 2015

I hope you're right. I'm at 32% and hope it passes! Thanks for the calculation.

billymach4 · May 5, 2015

Thanks GregT!

This is a great starting point. Your mileage may vary.

I would add my 2 cents. Where a resort is in high demand you should probably add about 10% (This is conservative). If you can roll the dice and bid again after it has been ROFR'd then go with your gut and purchase at the asking price at the above metric.

There are other factors as well such as the season you are purchasing.

taterhed · May 5, 2015

Great post Greg.

Right on the numbers for the 2 units that got ROFR'd and the 1 unit that passed (for me).

Thanks for the hard work!

dioxide45 · May 5, 2015

billymach4 said:
This is a great starting point. Your mileage may vary.

I would add my 2 cents. Where a resort is in high demand you should probably add about 10% (This is conservative). If you can roll the dice and bid again after it has been ROFR'd then go with your gut and purchase at the asking price at the above metric.

There are other factors as well such as the season you are purchasing.

I think there are some seasons/resorts where MVCI has zero interest in acquiring weeks via ROFR. Though I would think if it is higher demand, or a higher season then it is also more points. Thus the 23% would result in a higher dollar figure.

I think what may be more of a factor is what MVCI needs in the trust to meet anticipated points reservations. The trust is pretty weak in HHI inventory. Perhaps they would be willing to pay more to bolster the trust in those properties. But I don't think they really factor that in. They are just looking to fund the sales machine, thus the metric of their overall margin in the end is the biggest concern. They have other ways that they can get inventory to meet demand.

Pens_Fan · May 7, 2015

I picked up a Aruba Surf Club gold Garden View for $4000.

That was only about 15.5%, but Marriott did not grab it. Either they have enough Aruba in their inventory, or I just got lucky.

dioxide45 · May 7, 2015

Pens_Fan said:
I picked up a Aruba Surf Club gold Garden View for $4000.

That was only about 15.5%, but Marriott did not grab it. Either they have enough Aruba in their inventory, or I just got lucky.

Or they can't sell Aruba as DC Trust Points. I think this may be why we see Aruba at a lower ROFR threshold.

SeaDoc · May 8, 2015

Another method to address ROFR metrics might be...

You may want to check what the availability is, and what the going prices that Marriott is selling their properties directly to the public are. These weeks can never go into the destinations program (unless one buys an equal or greater number of points that the week is worth within one year of purchase), but they do have the ability to generate Marriott Reward Points and can be traded into II. If one takes a percentage off of these prices you'll likely come to a general consensus as to what MVCI will buyback these properties or let them go through to the buyer... SeaDoc - Here is the website:

https://www.marriottvacationclub.com/resales/buy-weeks.shtml?loc=DB59*1-43X1I2&cid=ppc-ggl-resales-e

GregT said:
All,

I have had a few PMs asking me to compute ROFR metrics for various offers, which I am happy to do, and also asking for the history of this unofficial metric. The following thread is where we collected the data (such as it is).

I've taken the Points Value spreadsheet that TUGgers helped compile a couple of years back, and computed the ROFR metric for all weeks.

Accordingly, the attached is a hypothetical price of what should clear ROFR, if the metric can predict a ROFR exercise.

Please note, this approach is imperfect and I would hate to see a TUGger increase their bid based solely on this -- please make an offer price of what the week is worth to you. And please consult with a broker on what has been passing ROFR lately, they will have the most current information.

Anyone can compute their own ROFR metric:

1) Start with the DC Points that the underlying week is worth (example: 3,000 DC Points)
2) Multiply #1 by $10 per point (representing how much Marriott can sell the related points for if they ROFR it and deposit to the Trust -- example: 3,000 * $10/point = $30,000)
3) Take your Offer Price ($5,000?) and divide it by the result of #2 (example: $5,000 / $30,000 = 16.6%)
4) The resulting percentage will likely be between 5% - 35%.

My theory is that weeks where #4 is less than 23% have a greater probability of not passing ROFR than if #4 is greater than 23%. It is based on the linked thread up above.

I welcome comments, corrections and more recent data. Good luck!

Best,

Greg

GregT · Jul 21, 2015

Cal357 said:
For anyone interested, Marriott just exercised their ROFR on a 2BR lockout at Grand Chateau for $6000.

Copied from another thread -- I know Dioxide is working on bringing the ROFR database back up, but until then, perhaps we can post our ROFR results here.

The comment noted above is consistent with the ROFR metric -- and had risk of being ROFR'd as their purchase was below the 23% computation

[Grande Chateau is worth 3,275 points, or $32,750 in approximated Trust Points value. 23% of $32,750 is $7,500, therefore anything below $7,500 is at great risk of not passing ROFR. Contracts above $7,500 are more likely to pass].

At least, this is the theory.

Until we have a new database, please feel free to post ROFR results here (and please show your ROFR metric, available from the earlier linked file).

Best,

Greg

jrpeterson5 · Jul 22, 2015

Mine is about 8 weeks old, but I didn't know where to throw it out there so this is perfect. Thanks Greg T.

Marriott Ocean Watch, Gold, Garden View. $4000. ROFR waived after 28 days.

This puts me at about 17.7%. (4000/22,500). I noticed however, that on the ROFR waiver it was listed at $4500 (included closing costs) which would put me at 20%. Hope I calculated this correctly.

Thanks all. Great info here always.

SueDonJ · Jul 23, 2015

It seems like all of a sudden there are ROFR-related posts scattered all over the Marriott forum. You all might be following along just fine but I'm confused

, so I like Greg's idea to use this for ROFR activity. Despite not wanting to clog up the forum with stickies it's probably a good thing to do at least until Dioxide45 gets his off-TUG database functioning again. As a sticky thread it can be re-titled "ROFR Metric / Ongoing ROFR Activity."

We can move some of the recent ROFR posts to this thread but I have limited time right now to search them out. If you come across any please feel free to use the "Report Post" function with a note - "move to Marriott ROFR sticky thread, please" - and any of the mods/admin can do it when we see the reports. (Note if any dated prior to Greg's first post in this thread are moved then the board functions will cause some confusion so we probably should only move posts dated after 5/5/15.)

Any objections/suggestions?? I'll leave this here for a couple hours just in case. Thanks!

GregT · Jul 23, 2015

SueDonJ said:
It seems like all of a sudden there are ROFR-related posts scattered all over the Marriott forum. You all might be following along just fine but I'm confused , so I like Greg's idea to use this for ROFR activity. Despite not wanting to clog up the forum with stickies it's probably a good thing to do at least until Dioxide45 gets his off-TUG database functioning again. As a sticky thread it can be re-titled "ROFR Metric / Ongoing ROFR Activity."

We can move some of the recent ROFR posts to this thread but I have limited time right now to search them out. If you come across any please feel free to use the "Report Post" function with a note - "move to Marriott ROFR sticky thread, please" - and any of the mods/admin can do it when we see the reports. (Note if any dated prior to Greg's first post in this thread are moved then the board functions will cause some confusion so we probably should only move posts dated after 5/5/15.)

Any objections/suggestions?? I'll leave this here for a couple hours just in case. Thanks!

Sue, thank you, I think this makes sense. I can't change the title of the thread because too much time has passed, can you make the change for me?

Thanks!

Greg

GregT · Jul 23, 2015

Here are some recent ROFR reports from other threads (Edited to reduce to just price, season and result, and computed ROFR metric in red):

samara64 said:
They just exercised on a Shadow ridge plat annual for $4100. 13.33% ROFR Metric

And on 2 EEY and EOY white DSII for $1000 each. 9.3% ROFR Metric

samara64 said:
2 Marriott Grande Vista 3BR Plat weeks. One Odd and One Even. Each sold for $3300. One got exercised and the other waved. 17.72% ROFR Metric

Andy R said:
$5500 offer for the 2BR Platinum at MGV. [GT edit: FROR was exercised – this did not pass] 19.82% ROFR Metric

Seaport104 said:
Bought a 2nd MGV platinum and was informed today that Marriott exercised at 6,000 21.62% ROFR Metric

disneymom1 said:
We just purchased Surfwatch platinum 2 bedroom (garden view) and passed ROFR in February for $8000 plus 2015 maintenance fees. 17.2% ROFR Metric

taterhed said:
Marriott Waiohai 2br, annual, plat.: failed ROFR at $9500 22.49% ROFR Metric if IV, otherwise 18.72% if OV

taterhed said:
Marriott Grande Vista 3br annual plat: just passed ROFR @ $8500 22.82% ROFR Metric

samara64 said:
2BR MGV Gold EOY ODD got exercised this morning for $1500. I don't have the points for a MGV Gold and can't compute

sb2313 said:
they grabbed the other half from me as an eoy even gold 2 bed was taken at $1500 today.I don't have the points for a MGV Gold and can't compute

Pens_Fan said:
Aruba Surf Club gold Garden View just passed ROFR at $4000. I don't believe they are ROFRing Aruba because they can't put it in the Trust

Cal357 said:
Marriott just exercised their ROFR on a 2BR lockout at Grand Chateau for $6000.18.32% ROFR Metric

media4u2 said:
I eventually made the deal [Harbour Lake] at $1850 plus about $1000 for closing costs, etc. Marriott exercised ROFR (Right of First Refusal) 7.25% ROFR Metric if Platinum

I made a deal to purchase another Harbour Lake unit for $3000. Again, Marriott exercised ROFR.11.76% ROFR Metric if Platinum

My next venture was to try to get a Grande Vista unit for $4500. Again, ROFR took the property from me.16.22% ROFR Metric

Finally, I offered $5200 for a Platinum Grande Vista unit w/ Florida Club membership attached..... Sure enough, Marriott exercised ROFR.18.74% ROFR Metric

jrpeterson5 said:
Marriott Ocean Watch, Gold, Garden View. $4,000. ROFR waived after 28 days. I noticed however, that on the ROFR waiver it was listed at $4500 (included closing costs) which would put me at 20%.

TheTimeTraveler · Jul 23, 2015

Greg; Nice posting, thanks!

.

camachinist · Jul 27, 2015

I submitted two ROFR waiver requests the same day MVCI apparently took their system down, July 16, and they came back anyway as waived within a day:

Newport Coast Villas -

NCV Platinum - 9K (Marriott is selling this at 13,500)

NCV Gold - 5K (No sale data that I'm aware of)

SueDonJ · Jul 27, 2015

camachinist said:
I submitted two ROFR waiver requests the same day MVCI apparently took their system down, July 16, and they came back anyway as waived within a day:

Newport Coast Villas -

NCV Platinum - 9K (Marriott is selling this at 13,500)

NCV Gold - 5K (No sale data that I'm aware of)

FYI Marriott rofr delay July 15-27

(Seems like a good place to drop the link re Marriott updating their ROFR system.)

camachinist · Jul 27, 2015

Yes, I had read that here and was surprised MVCI processsed the waivers. They also made a mistake and sent a duplicate instead of one on each and corrected it within a couple hours of being notified. The escrow agent also received part of the estoppel information as well. I guess it wasn't a total shutdown.

Southerngirl528 · Aug 6, 2015

We just got ROFR waived from Marriott on a Napili 2bdrm in exactly 7 days! Yay!

heckp · Aug 10, 2015

July 30 MKO 2BR LO OV EOYO $5200 DID NOT PASS ROFR

August 10 MKO 2BR LO OV EOYO $6000 PASSED ROFR

taffy19 · Aug 11, 2015

Southerngirl528 said:
We just got ROFR waived from Marriott on a Napili 2bdrm in exactly 7 days! Yay!

Congratulations to you as you wanted this and your life will be a lot more simple from now on without all the stress dealing with your stay at the MM1 in Maui. :cheer:

What week did you buy?

Southerngirl528 · Aug 11, 2015

Emmy, you are such a dear to remember my big challenges with booking my weeks for February on Maui! Thank you.

I wish I could say we did buy a fixed week this round, but we bought 1 week EOYE to go with our EOYO 2 weeks. We bought a float week. The prices for the weeks we would need for a fixed week were just too high right now for what we were willing to pay at this time.

But I am super excited that we will now get to go to Maui every year rather than EOY!!! Yippee!!! And I have certainly not ruled out that elusive fixed week 2 bdrm Annual oceanfront in either Napili or Lahaina tower......

GregT · Aug 25, 2015

All,

Marriott exercised their Right of First Refusal for the sale of my Trust Points. I had sold them for $4.50 per point, and Marriott exercised the ROFR within 4 days of receiving the request. They've indicated they will take up to 90 days to close the transaction.

So.....for those of you looking to buy points, you need to offer more than $4.50 per point.

Best,

Greg

ROFR metric / Ongoing ROFR Activity

GregT

TUG Member

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samara64

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TheTimeTraveler

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