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YIKES! Real estate prices will fall further in 2009.

thinze3

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According to Money Magazine home prices will continue to fall next year. Looks like Florida and California will continue to suffer the most. I though that I read recently that Florida had already seen an uptick in their market. Maybe it didn't included Miami. :(

Metro: ........ 2009 median: ... 2009 change:
Dallas ......... $155,645 ......... -1.0%
Houston ...... 147,549 .......... -1.8
Atlanta ........ 150,092 .......... -2.5
Chicago ....... 239,359 .......... -5.3
Philadelphia .. 201,151 .......... -9.8
Boston ........ 295,918 .......... -12.5
New York ..... 393,210 .......... -13.7
Washington . 261,411 .......... -17.1
Los Angeles . 269,614 .......... -17.2
Miami .......... 214,551 .......... -18.8


Terry
 

mshatty

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According to Money Magazine home prices will continue to fall next year. Looks like Florida and California will continue to suffer the most. I though that I read recently that Florida had already seen an uptick in their market. Maybe it didn't included Miami. :(

Metro: ........ 2009 median: ... 2009 change:
Dallas ......... $155,645 ......... -1.0%
Houston ...... 147,549 .......... -1.8
Atlanta ........ 150,092 .......... -2.5
Chicago ....... 239,359 .......... -5.3
Philadelphia .. 201,151 .......... -9.8
Boston ........ 295,918 .......... -12.5
New York ..... 393,210 .......... -13.7
Washington . 261,411 .......... -17.1
Los Angeles . 269,614 .......... -17.2
Miami .......... 214,551 .......... -18.8


Terry

According to the Houston Area Realtors statistics, the avg price of a single-family home in Houston ROSE by 4.4% in September 2008. The median price of a single-family ROSE by 5.0% in Septmeber 2008. (The median price represents the figure at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less).

The number of properties sold in Houston were down almost 30% compared to September 2007, obviously because of Hurricane Ike, but the average and median pricing continues to climb.

Money Magazine's information as to Houston is either out of date or plain inaccurate.
 

JeffW

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My vote goes with dropping. The way the economy is going, who is going to have the money to buy more expensive houses? I don't believe the whole housing / mortgage crisis was really solved, through in growing unemployment, and cutback spending by those still employed, and it makes for a bad time...

Jeff
 

mshatty

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Mike, those are prediction. The date is 2009.

Just pure guess number

Jya-Ning

The information is wrong. The median price home in Houston is $157,000 not $147,000. I suspect that Money Magazine's information is stale.
 

Timeshare Von

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All I know is . . .

. . . my 401k saw a net drop of 15% over the past three years . . . and my house in Ames, IA netted us a loss of 6% over the same period of time.

I'm happy to say we're going to closing (finally) on that house in about three weeks, so long as our buyer and their's keep their jobs for the next month!
 

thinze3

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If I had to guess, the home I live in has probably lost 15% of its value in the last 2 years. I am in an old, well established, inner-city neighborhood of Houston.


Terry
 

RichM

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The only upside in California is that if your house's market value is below your Prop 13 taxable value as of Jan 1, your property taxes for that year (which you start paying in Nov. I believe) will be based on the Jan 1 market value and not your Prop 13 taxable value. Your Prop 13 taxable value will continue to go up per the standard 2% each year, but your property taxes will be based on the lower of the Jan 1 market value or your then-current Prop 13 taxable value. So, until the value of your house goes back above the Prop 13 taxable value you get a little relief in property taxes...

Here's a PDF explaining it from the Orange County assessor's office:
http://www.oc.ca.gov/assessor/pdf/2008MarketValueDeclineInformation.pdf


I guess the downside is that you would be paying less in property taxes which means a smaller deduction on your income taxes, so you might end up offsetting the property tax savings with higher income taxes..

The other downside is if it takes awhile to recover, people might get used to paying the depressed property tax rates and could get a shock if the market values spike back up.

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mshatty

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147 is their guess for 2009 not current.

Their $147,000 is inaccurate. If the median price is $157,000 and the market is to drop to $147,000 that is much more than a 1.8% drop in value. It's more like 6.5%.

The problem I have with these type of prognostications are that their bases are usually so stale by the time the article is written and published.
 

thinze3

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Their $147,000 is inaccurate. If the median price is $157,000 and the market is to drop to $147,000 that is much more than a 1.8% drop in value. It's more like 6.5%.

The problem I have with these type of prognostications are that their bases are usually so stale by the time the article is written and published.

Mike,
The best I can see is that you are correct. The median home price for SALES in Houston during the month of September was $157,500 acording to the Houston Association of Realtors. Most likely Money Magazine is using different criteria.

Terry
 

Jya-Ning

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Their $147,000 is inaccurate. If the median price is $157,000 and the market is to drop to $147,000 that is much more than a 1.8% drop in value. It's more like 6.5%.

The problem I have with these type of prognostications are that their bases are usually so stale by the time the article is written and published.

They are using some data from Aug 2008's. As you say it has increase by 4.4% in Sept. 4.4 + 1.8 = 6.2%

Jya-Ning
 

The Conch Man

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Our local news reported yesterday that Lee County Florida is 1st in Florida for the worst County & 5th in the nation, one in three homes here owe more mortgage than the house is appraised for its value! That's not good as the prices of homes continually drop by the way side.

We still continue to pay high real estate taxes & mortgage insurance coverage, forgot to mention, do you really want to live here in Florida, the sunshine state with warm temps all year round, that is Southwest Florida Gulf Coast???
 

Lawlar

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Los Angeles Is Going Down!

My opinion: real estate prices are going down another 20 to 30% in Southern California. You won't see the end until you see the high price homes collapse in value. [That marked the end of the 1990s decline.]

Despite the dramatic decline we have already seen, real estate prices in Southern California are still too high when you use traditional formulas based on income (affordability index) and rent ratios (a home should only be worth so many times rental value). And the unemployment rate is rising rapidly in California.

There are a lot of people sitting in homes for which they can't afford to make the payments. They bought those big homes thinking they could keep refinancing them and using that cash to make the payments. The music has stopped and there aren't enough chairs for people to sit on.

A good site to watch for articles on the real estate decline is Patrick.net.
 

Big Matt

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Look at the numbers over a much longer time and you'll see that home prices go up about 5% a year on average.

Now ask yourself how much your house went up from say 2002 to 2006. Mine went up about 100%.

Now it's down about 30% from its highest point. I won't be at all surprised to see it fall another 10-20%, but over a thirteen year period I'm still in great shape.

What stinks about the current situation is the price volatility, and for those who bought at the top of the market, let's hope they don't have to move.
 
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