Deflation
From my calculations a 2BR condo in a “hot’ resort area located in a prime position costs about $350,000 each (when bought in a large quantity or built from scratch as a large project). Multiply that by 4 = $1,400,000 sales to TW.
Now there are 3 ways for TW to recoup its money:
1) Charge $1.70 and make each 2BR cost 15,837 credits ($1,400,000/52/$1.70)
2) Charge $2.70 per WM credit for 10,000 credits ($1,400,000/52/10000)
3) Increase the number of credits needed to stay in a 2BR in prime season to 12,000 and increase the price charged to new members to $2.25 (a combination of #1 and #2)
Unfortunately TW has decided to keep the price at $1.70 for 10,000 credits in a 2BR in prime and that means they can only spend $221,000 per condo. ($1.70 * 10,000 * 52)/4
And that’s exactly what TW is doing buying bankrupt condos in the middle of Illinois corn fields. This is a form of deflation that can only go on so long.
I personally would like them to “upgrade” their image (kind of like the US car manufactures after making a generation of substandard cars). There is no reason why WM can’t attract folks who will spend the $2.70 or $27,000 for a 2BR on the ski slopes, on the beach, or right in the heart of Vegas.
TW/WM’s image of the “Wal-Mart” of the timeshare industry is slipping – who the heck wants vacation in the mid-west? All right, there are a few folks who have a burning desire to visit Oklahoma and not Hawaii.
The “theory of equals” means that TW can easily charge 15,000 credits for a 2BR in a 5 star resort at a 5 star destination and everyone’s credits will work just fine. Have only 10,000 credits? No problem, rent 5,000 more at 5¢ each or borrow from next years usage and go today.
To those WM owners who want the new members to pay for years of run away real estate prices for new construction – that’s like wanting the “rich” to pay your taxes (the bottom 50% of tax payers pay 3% of the federal taxes). Everyone should pull their own weight.