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Why car prices are still so high — and why they are unlikely to fall anytime soon

Carolinian

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DH was thinking about buying a new truck last fall. He has a f250, 2010 diesel... in 2012 we paid 30k for it. A similar vehicle today is 80k - used. It has just over 100k miles so he decided to just do some upgrades...tommy lift, new bed cover and new racks. Spent 10k but was better than a new /used vehicle

Diesel engines tend to last longer, but the fuel is expensive, so that is a trade off.
 

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I went through the process of replacing a car recently and this was what I found in my area. I was searching for a specific type of Ford Escape. One that could tow something. I started last September and looked through the dealer sites. The largest dealer in this area has 35 dealerships and updates how much inventory they have on a daily basis. Last September they had about 1800 used cars and and new inventory of only around 1300. By December The New car inventory came up to around 5000 cars and the used car inventory stayed around 1800. Looking at the site today they have just under 5000 new cars and well over 2000 used cars.

So what explains those numbers. In the used car side the market has been crushed by high interest rates. A used car loan for a lot of people may be over 10%. This is driving the prices down somewhat but the inventory coming back is somewhat restricted as 3 years ago auto plants were shut down due to Covid so cars coming off 2 and 3 year lease's are in short supply. On the new car side the auto companies seem to be more willing to subsidize a low interest rate as opposed to a rebate at lower price. Although this may hurt margins It keeps the top line high for reporting to wall street.

I bought in January and got an ok deal because I was able to use cash and trade for a 2 year old car. If you can swing it that way it may be the best possible route at the moment.
 

Superchief

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I think another factor is the shift in production from the ICE and hybrids to EV's. Unfortunately, many car manufacturers are no longer making the hybrids and are building production facilities for EV's. Honda recently announced they are stopping production of Accords at their Marysville facility in order to convert it to producing EV's. Acura will no longer produce hybrids. This means the availability of high demand, reasonably priced cars will diminish over the next few years.
 

rickandcindy23

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Diesel engines tend to last longer, but the fuel is expensive, so that is a trade off.
For a good long time, Diesel was similar in price to gasoline, at least in Colorado. Diesel has gone up in price considerably in the last few years.

Nonetheless, we will still be driving to/ from Orlando in late May. I am tired of renting cars and paying the high airfares. Even Southwest is over $200 each way. And car rentals are about $400 for two weeks (or even more than that). I rarely see any deals on flights for dates we need, unless I want to fly in on a Tuesday, which doesn't work out well for most timeshares.
 

Sugarcubesea

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For a good long time, Diesel was similar in price to gasoline, at least in Colorado. Diesel has gone up in price considerably in the last few years.

Nonetheless, we will still be driving to/ from Orlando in late May. I am tired of renting cars and paying the high airfares. Even Southwest is over $200 each way. And car rentals are about $400 for two weeks (or even more than that). I rarely see any deals on flights for dates we need, unless I want to fly in on a Tuesday, which doesn't work out well for most timeshares.
@rickandcindy23, we are now going to do the same thing, the air fare is so high and I drive very little to work as I work from home most days and only go into the office 1 day a week and my office is only 10 minutes from my house, so we will be driving to and from FL going forward...
 

noreenkate

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Prices are ridiculous - I should know because we just had to buy a new car. My Mini needed $$$ work plus I needed a more comfortable car. My RA is starting to be more problematic and the Mini ride is just too stiff. We found the best deal using Costco. I suppose we could have shaved off a few more $$ but I just wanted to get it over with. We looked at used cars too but if the car had low miles the price was almost as much as new, and if the price was about 25% less than new, the car had over 50k miles. It is still a crazy market.
My mini was totaled in January 2022- I am devastated my roadster got my needs perfectly.

Right there with you as finding a comfortable car is now a priority, honestly the market is ridiculous as far as choice goes...I don't want, need or sit comfortably in an SUV but try finding a basic 2-door coupe or hatchback, nope. Does not exist at this point, unless it's a ridiculously priced sports car.

Seems at least with American car manufacturers they have no consideration for those with hips that are getting older.

Honestly, I was looking at a 2012 comfy caddy today...2 doors that opened nice and wide, not ridiculously low to the ground, not too high I need a stepladder to get in & room enough in the trunk for my stuff.
 

mchct

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Re : Nissan and their model selection mix - remember the Nissan Micra - the least expensive car in America

Well it is still in production in Mexico and was redesigned and updated in 2021. [ model name Nissan March]
When we spent 5 days in Mexico City in Feb. we took many Ubers and rode in March's; as well as Chevy Sparks & Aveos
and many other small vehicles that are being mfg. but not sold north of the Rio Grand.
Funny! When you mentioned the Nissan Micra, I thought about our son who so far, has seemed to have pretty good luck on all the cars he's bought or sold!

Our son had just been stationed in January 2020 to Aviano in Italy for his military assignment. He bought a used Nissan Micra for $3000 from another US military person who was transferring back to the states. The Micra was fine but pretty basic with crank windows for the passenger windows. But no major repairs/issues, only something with the car radio and he brought it to the base's car repair bay area where someone fixed it in exchange for a beer! He changed the oil at the base and he drove that car around Italy and the surrounding countries during the weekends with no problems for his two years while stationed there. He said the Micra was easy to drive and park since a lot of the roads are pretty narrow in most European towns.

Six months before the end of his Italy assignment, he bought a used BMW Suv for $6000 from an officer who was transferring and needed to sell quickly. Surprisingly, the Micra's value was higher than what he paid and he sold it to an incoming military person for $3,500. When he was being transferred to Germany, the military had most of his apartment packed up and moved his stuff to his new base. He decided and ended up driving the BMW from Italy to Germany which worked out great since he likes to travel and see different countries.

Meanwhile back here in the states, he still had his 2015 Honda Civic EX which my husband and I would drive occasionally but we had asked him if he wanted to sell it since he wasn't coming back for several more years. Since covid and the shortages of parts and all, the car prices were going up like crazy (when he left at end of 2019 his Civic would have only gotten him around $10,000 at most) but around the end of 2021 my husband did the Edmunds used car price quote and he got three dealers calling or emails offering $17000 if we brought the car in if it was as we described when filling out the info. The $17,000 offer was from Car Max and we were near the dealer one day and decided to have them check out the car and sell it for their $17,000 offer. They checked out the car and they offered $16,000; so we asked and showed them their $17,000 offer but they said that had expired, yesterday! The tech said he'd ask the manager if $17,000 was still on the table and they'd call back. Unfortunately, when they called back the manager said only $16,000 (and good for one week!) so we said we'd think about it and call back.

A couple of days later, my husband tried a different online site to get quotes. This was the KBB (Kelly Blue Book) website and again after filling out the car's details he immediately got several emails and phone calls. One dealer called and offered $18000 and my husband thought its was kind of a scam to just get us to come in so he called the dealer to find out. He said the dealer (Huntington Beach Honda) sounded pretty honest and said that if the car was in the condition as he stated, they would pay $18,000. Husband made an appointment and the used car manager at HB Honda was very honest and upfront. After inspecting the Honda, the manager said they wanted it. Probably because the used car inventory was so low and they needed cars to sell and our Honda Civic was really clean and the car was as described - very low mileage, clean.

The dealer cut out the check for us, did all the paperwork and it was a very easy and clean transaction. With all the fraud going on with private sales, we personally didn't want to deal with a private sale and decided that for us it was worth taking a little bit less and selling it to a major dealer than a private party. And we checked the dealer's sales website after we sold the car to them and it was listed that night for way more! And it was gone in less than a week, so they sold our car pretty quickly!

We had also disclosed that it was in one accident. Just a month prior, husband had gotten read ended on the 22 Fwy-car in the left lane did a quick lane change in front of him, traffic in front completely stopped so that car slammed on their brakes. He slammed on his brakes and stopped in time without hitting their car. Unfortunately, a Lexus behind him didn't and slammed him from behind and pushed our Honda into the first car. No major damage in front, but back bumper definitely crushed.

Fortunately we have dashcams in our cars and it was working fine and recorded it all - unsafe lane change from first car, his still stopping in time, then being read ended and pushed into the first car (and his cussing... :LOL:), so our insurance agent said we were in the clear and the Lexus driver's insurance ended up paying and covering all the costs and deductibles. The Honda was repaired at a body shop in Laguna Niguel that did a great job on the repairs and paint, so the Honda looked really good!

Anyways, son is happy that he got that much money for his 5 year old Honda. He originally bought that 2015 Civic brand new for $18,000 (plus the obnoxious California tax and license fees!) so he pretty much got most of his money back for a 5 year old car! He then used it to buy a nice almost new, used Toyota hybrid in Germany. And he sold the BMW SUV a few weeks later for $500 more than he paid, so he's been very lucky with selling his cars!
 

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I seriously looked at a used eGolf. Range was only 75 but otherwise looked to be a real solid car. I really wanted it but I ended up getting a 4 year old certified used Kia Soul EV right before the used car prices spiked as it was about $4000 cheaper than the used eGolf. Range is 93 with a 10 year battery warranty. Like you, that EV is used for running errands on a daily basis. If an EV has a perfect niche, it is the daily “drive around town” kind of car.
We had a 2015 Nissan Leaf EV that we just sold. We bought it new and like CalGalTraveler, it ended up costing us only about $14,000 after all the rebates and tax credits offered at that time. Nissan also gave two years of free charging which was great! It was a very good car but the range was also advertised at 120 miles but really 75. If you needed to drive it for longer trips you'd get "range anxiety" and would have to know where the chargers were and use the various apps to locate the charging stations. Our daughter used it mostly and it worked well for her going to college and her part time job while she lived at home.

We just bought the new Nissan Ariya and are very happy with it and chose the new Northern Lights (looks dark green/black and depending on how the light hits, you see greens, purples, etc. just like the Northern Lights!) color. Maybe we're also happy with the Ariya because the range is over 200 miles, so no more range anxiety! It felt a bit pricey but we think that Nissan really did a good job with this car (some people thought it was supposed to be in their higher Infiniti brand) and the design, details, dashboard, computer, workmanship, finish are much better than Teslas. Not Tesla bashing, but the quality doesn't seem to be all there... Husband is also a car guy and enjoys his older ICE BMW 3 and 5 series but is getting tired of doing all the mechanical work, oil changes, required and really likes EVs since they don't require as much maintenance as ICE cars.

We did pre-order and put a (refundable) deposit down for the Ariya last year and just got our car a couple of months ago, in January. Our dealer (Tustin Nissan) was very good and honored all terms and didn't try to play any games and raise the price, like we read some other dealers tried. And Nissan is also giving two years of free charging on the Ariya as well!

When we went to pick up our car, it was a week before we were going on a monthlong vacation though so timing wasn't the greatest. Also the value of our eight year old 2015 Nissan Leaf was coming down from an estimated $11,000 used resale value in 2021 (due to the covid related shortages) to $6,000ish now, so we decided to try and sell the Leaf before we left. He also said that the Leaf was still good but the battery had lost one bar, which isn't uncommon for the car's age but could affect the value a little. And pre-covid, this 2015 Leaf would have only fetched us around $3000-$4000 in a private sale, so much less at a dealer.

Husband did the KBB or Edmunds online quote and got several emails, one for $7600. Fortunately, that dealer inspected the car and wanted the Leaf so we sold it for that amount. We believe that if we had waited until we returned after our month vacation, we would have gotten less and had to deal with an extra car in the driveway. And we wanted to work with a dealer and not have any headaches or problems in dealing with a private sale. Some people may be fine with selling to a private party and getting some more money, but with so much fraud going on now we just preferred to take a little less and have the dealer do the paperwork.

I posted a reply to another post earlier about our son's 2015 Honda Civic higher resale value because of covid shortages, so he was lucky in the timing of his sale. Maybe if we waited longer he could have gotten more but it could also go the other way, so he's happy with what he sold for.

CalGalTraveler's EV Golf is newer than our Leaf was, so worth more. If you think that prices will stay or go higher than maybe hold onto it if you still use the car. If you think the value will go down and you aren't using the car, then sell? Decisions, decisions! Good luck!
 

RX8

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Husband did the KBB or Edmunds online quote and got several emails, one for $7600. Fortunately, that dealer inspected the car and wanted the Leaf so we sold it for that amount. We believe that if we had waited until we returned after our month vacation, we would have gotten less and had to deal with an extra car in the driveway. And we wanted to work with a dealer and not have any headaches or problems in dealing with a private sale. Some people may be fine with selling to a private party and getting some more money, but with so much fraud going on now we just preferred to take a little less and have the dealer do the paperwork.

I’m surprised dealers didn’t offer you more for your Leaf. Your Leaf qualifies for the used EV credit of 30% of the selling price up to a max of $4,000 if sold by a dealer. The dealer who bought it from you for $7,600 was smart since they could mark it up to $10,000, making a very good profit, and the eventual buyer would essentially have that Leaf for a net price of $7,000 after the EV credit.
 

klpca

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My mini was totaled in January 2022- I am devastated my roadster got my needs perfectly.

Right there with you as finding a comfortable car is now a priority, honestly the market is ridiculous as far as choice goes...I don't want, need or sit comfortably in an SUV but try finding a basic 2-door coupe or hatchback, nope. Does not exist at this point, unless it's a ridiculously priced sports car.

Seems at least with American car manufacturers they have no consideration for those with hips that are getting older.

Honestly, I was looking at a 2012 comfy caddy today...2 doors that opened nice and wide, not ridiculously low to the ground, not too high I need a stepladder to get in & room enough in the trunk for my stuff.
Our other car is a 2016 Ford Edge which is very comfortable. I wanted the Lincoln version (can't remember what model that was) but my husband was happy with the Ford. We have had 92k reliable miles with the Ford. I also liked the Cadillac when we looked that them. I actually seat tested 17 cars back in 2016. The best place to do that was at CarMax. It is amazing how different the seats feel.
 

noreenkate

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Our other car is a 2016 Ford Edge which is very comfortable. I wanted the Lincoln version (can't remember what model that was) but my husband was happy with the Ford. We have had 92k reliable miles with the Ford. I also liked the Cadillac when we looked that them. I actually seat tested 17 cars back in 2016. The best place to do that was at CarMax. It is amazing how different the seats feel.
We actually had 2 MINIs his and hers lol
I had the roadster and he still has the countryman ( small hostility he ran over my car with a u-haul )

the countryman is great but I can’t drive it for more than 30 minutes or so it’s so uncomfortable…Best thing about the roadster was the doors opened almost to 90 degrees made getting in and out easy.
 

easyrider

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Vehicle prices are expected to decline because of the subprime vehicle loans. There have been a couple of large car dealers that have gone out of business or are about to. Currently there are millions of vehicle loans with negative equity. Even so, I have been looking for a low mile Toyota 4 Runner or Lexus RX 350 that is for sale by owner and haven't found a decent price. I think next year if we play our cards right we will find it. If not we are happy with what we have.

Bill
 

klpca

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We actually had 2 MINIs his and hers lol
I had the roadster and he still has the countryman ( small hostility he ran over my car with a u-haul )

the countryman is great but I can’t drive it for more than 30 minutes or so it’s so uncomfortable…Best thing about the roadster was the doors opened almost to 90 degrees made getting in and out easy.
Oof. He ran over your car?? Yeah, I would be salty about that. I drove a Countryman as a loaner - that was a no for me. I just have the two door hard top. I have never loved a car so much. Mine is chili red with racing stripes. A true classic. I don't know which ownership group is more "culty" the Mini owners or the Subaru owners. It is something else! I would have happily kept my Mini except that since the Ford has 92k and our kids live near Tahoe, we need another long trip car and my husband hates driving my Mini. It is going on 12 years so I knew that this day was coming. My car hasn't been sold yet - he ("Romeo") is still parked in the driveway and I keep telling my husband that we should just fix things on it one at a time and keep it to use around town. He is not having it, lol. We'll see.
 

CalGalTraveler

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I’m surprised dealers didn’t offer you more for your Leaf. Your Leaf qualifies for the used EV credit of 30% of the selling price up to a max of $4,000 if sold by a dealer. The dealer who bought it from you for $7,600 was smart since they could mark it up to $10,000, making a very good profit, and the eventual buyer would essentially have that Leaf for a net price of $7,000 after the EV credit.
I am not familiar with this EV credit. Can you elaborate? When did this take effect?

P.S. Our 2019 eGolf has 125 mile range. Reliable car with plenty of power. Works for most tasks but we cannot go roundtrip to SFO without a charge (I detest charging outside of the home.)
 

noreenkate

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Oof. He ran over your car?? Yeah, I would be salty about that. I drove a Countryman as a loaner - that was a no for me. I just have the two door hard top. I have never loved a car so much. Mine is chili red with racing stripes. A true classic. I don't know which ownership group is more "culty" the Mini owners or the Subaru owners. It is something else! I would have happily kept my Mini except that since the Ford has 92k and our kids live near Tahoe, we need another long trip car and my husband hates driving my Mini. It is going on 12 years so I knew that this day was coming. My car hasn't been sold yet - he ("Romeo") is still parked in the driveway and I keep telling my husband that we should just fix things on it one at a time and keep it to use around town. He is not having it, lol. We'll see.
Lol he was just telling me go try the hardtops-
and yeah I was kinda the culty nut…lol bought it sight unseen as a pre-order before they were available in the USA tracked my car on the boat over, custom stripes made in the UK retro fitted custom leather…

i know it was an accident but I think he is happy Peanut is gone
 

klpca

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Lol he was just telling me go try the hardtops-
and yeah I was kinda the culty nut…lol bought it sight unseen as a pre-order before they were available in the USA tracked my car on the boat over, custom stripes made in the UK retro fitted custom leather…

i know it was an accident but I think he is happy Peanut is gone
Lol. I also preordered and tracked Romeo on the boat.

Actually I was on board with selling him but after this Mini-chat I think I may advocate for keeping Romeo. He will be an iconic classic in just a few more years. :D
 

Bucky

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New vehicle purchasing may never go back to the old ways of dealer lots being loaded up with new vehicles and only a small section for pre-owned vehicles. Thanks to covid and supply chain shortages manufacturers have realized they can make more money by going to more order based production schedule. Manufacturers are having to put far less incentives such as rebates and special financing rates to keep their assembly lines moving. Dealers are really not upset because they are demanding full sticker or far more, and getting it. To make up for the empty lots they are packing in the used vehicles which they are making even more money on than the new ones. It’s a win win for both the manufacturers and the dealer, regardless of what they publicly say. Don’t expect the old days to ever return to what they used to be like. Lots of people said the used vehicle market would eventually crash. Hasn’t happened. It may gradually comedown but that is really in the hands of manufacturers. If they continue to limit production and move to an order based sales system it may never drop. The only way it’s going to come down is if we just quit buying at these prices and that just isn’t going to happen. With the lousy public transit systems that most states have, people need transportation. This is just my opinion gleamed from many years in the auto business. Take it for what it’s worth.
 

Patri

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I test drove a couple cars yesterday. This is a large dealership with many locations and many different makes. I asked about summer availability. They expect a lot of used being traded for new. A factory rep had been in and at least that company is ramping up production. For now, they don’t negotiate prices. That may not change in the summer, but I hope so, at least a little bit.
 

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I was seeing th

I am not so sure this is the case. Inventories of cars is going up, someone will blink first then all the other manufacturers will be forced to follow suit. Stellantis is sitting on over 100 days of inventory. Still less than pre pandemic, but it shows that people are not buying at the same rate they were as prices and interest rates have gone up.
I agree, I read the same thing.

I have notice that some luxury car manufacturers are offering incentives, so their inventories must be rising.
 

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We purchased a 2020 MDX in 11/19, a few months before COVID. We knew our daughters would need a car, so it made sense to buy a new one and give them the old one. I test drove it and didn't like it. It drives like a senior citizen car, rather than a sports car, the way our 2011 MDX handles and accelerates.

However, we were getting an incredible price, about $39K brand new. I wanted to look at Infiniti Q60 but the wife insisted on getting the MDX due to the great price. Now, after seeing what happened to car prices with COVID, I am glad we got it.

Meanwhile, my company is taking back my fleet car. My Volvo C70 is 10 years old and I was expecting a new Audi A5 Convertible - which is what they have been buying for the last few years. I got an email a few weeks ago and it had an attachment called 'joe stein car' - I was sure it was my new car - but instead it was letter that basically said 'Ha Ha thought you were getting a new car - NO - instead we are cancelling the fleet program - get ready to give back your old car'.

I guess I can't complain as I had a car for 10 years, at least I can afford to buy a new car, not everybody who is losing their car can. However, I am not sure what to get. Cars are SO expensive - does it pay to get a cheaper car (maybe used) and keep it a few years and pass it along to my other daughter once she gets her license and then get what I really want at a hopefully more reasonable car market or just get what I want now (I like the Genesis GV70).

Joe
 
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