- Jan 23, 2012
- Reaction score
- Raleigh, NC
There won't be any "sales." It will all be rentals with rental contracts that are not much more complicated than renting a room at a Holiday Inn.The timeshare industry has changed from deeded ownership to points ownership over the last 10 years.
In 50 years, I see:
1. The term ownership will be replaced with membership. You will get condo hotel accommodations and pay a membership fee instead of a maintenance fee. Like a golf club membership, you will pay an upfront charge to be a member. Prices will vary based the status of the hotel chain.
2. Timeshare membership will have strict laws on sales. I see Lawyers involved in the transactions to ensure honesty instead of backroom sign offs.
Why? What motivation do they have to do this? Nice dream, though.3. Timeshare companies will be forced to take back any and all deeds at a prescribed fair value from all past owners. Owners will be given the chance first to become members if they want.
Think so? I kinda think the corporations offering the memberships would discourage exchanging because it would reduce the collectable membership fees. It would be analogous to you and your three neighbors all sharing one Amazon Prime membership fee.4. I see intermediary exchange companies gone (like RCI) and brands merging with a unified, low cost trade system.
That's exactly why the fixed-week, fixed location model has to die. It has never been workable for the situation where the property has aged so much that another renovation is impossible.5. I see memberships sold as pre paid memberships with discounted rates for members in return. There will never be a special assessment risk.
6. I see legacy timeshares being gobbled up by major brands or sold off. Many will be in such disrepair, they will need to be mowed down.
It will never happen for accounting reasons. Every corporation must annually report assets and liabilities. Liabilities include things like unpaid bills, loans, and bonds. Also employee vacations that are earned but not yet taken. When a corporation's liabilities get too high, its share price (stock) dives, and the company might even go bankrupt. Bad business model!7. I see membership points or exchanges being available to members forever. In other words, there will not be 2 year limits on using their benefits. Charging extension fees to keep earned benefits will be banned.
(I retired from a well-known company associated with the color blue. It had a generous vacation policy, two weeks/year at start of employment, three after five years, four weeks after ten years, five weeks after fifteen years, and six weeks after twenty years, IIRC. In the late 90s, they realized that due to increased workloads and shortened product development cycles, employees were taking only the mandatory two weeks and banking the rest. Not only was the liability huge and the stock price down in the mud, but even worse, employees were getting raises so that a week earned when salary was $40,000/year would have to be paid when the employee was earning $120,000/year.)
Well, yes. They won't be able to sell the dream "Your family can vacation each year. Think of the memories." when they are selling a product that's essentially an annual fee you can decline to renew at any time. Think of a country club, or your neighborhood swim-and-tennis club. No initiation fee. Just decide each year whether you want to pay that $600 or not.[/QUOTE]8. Membership values will not drop like a rock like timeshares have and have a better reputation.
In your model, isn't that simply declining to renew for the next year?9. Memberships will be a lot easier to get rid of.
What do you think will happen with timeshares in 50 years?
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