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Where do you see timeshares in 50 years?

Larry M

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The timeshare industry has changed from deeded ownership to points ownership over the last 10 years.

In 50 years, I see:

1. The term ownership will be replaced with membership. You will get condo hotel accommodations and pay a membership fee instead of a maintenance fee. Like a golf club membership, you will pay an upfront charge to be a member. Prices will vary based the status of the hotel chain.

2. Timeshare membership will have strict laws on sales. I see Lawyers involved in the transactions to ensure honesty instead of backroom sign offs.
There won't be any "sales." It will all be rentals with rental contracts that are not much more complicated than renting a room at a Holiday Inn.
3. Timeshare companies will be forced to take back any and all deeds at a prescribed fair value from all past owners. Owners will be given the chance first to become members if they want.
Why? What motivation do they have to do this? Nice dream, though.
4. I see intermediary exchange companies gone (like RCI) and brands merging with a unified, low cost trade system.
Think so? I kinda think the corporations offering the memberships would discourage exchanging because it would reduce the collectable membership fees. It would be analogous to you and your three neighbors all sharing one Amazon Prime membership fee.
5. I see memberships sold as pre paid memberships with discounted rates for members in return. There will never be a special assessment risk.

6. I see legacy timeshares being gobbled up by major brands or sold off. Many will be in such disrepair, they will need to be mowed down.
That's exactly why the fixed-week, fixed location model has to die. It has never been workable for the situation where the property has aged so much that another renovation is impossible.
7. I see membership points or exchanges being available to members forever. In other words, there will not be 2 year limits on using their benefits. Charging extension fees to keep earned benefits will be banned.
It will never happen for accounting reasons. Every corporation must annually report assets and liabilities. Liabilities include things like unpaid bills, loans, and bonds. Also employee vacations that are earned but not yet taken. When a corporation's liabilities get too high, its share price (stock) dives, and the company might even go bankrupt. Bad business model!

(I retired from a well-known company associated with the color blue. It had a generous vacation policy, two weeks/year at start of employment, three after five years, four weeks after ten years, five weeks after fifteen years, and six weeks after twenty years, IIRC. In the late 90s, they realized that due to increased workloads and shortened product development cycles, employees were taking only the mandatory two weeks and banking the rest. Not only was the liability huge and the stock price down in the mud, but even worse, employees were getting raises so that a week earned when salary was $40,000/year would have to be paid when the employee was earning $120,000/year.)
8. Membership values will not drop like a rock like timeshares have and have a better reputation.
Well, yes. They won't be able to sell the dream "Your family can vacation each year. Think of the memories." when they are selling a product that's essentially an annual fee you can decline to renew at any time. Think of a country club, or your neighborhood swim-and-tennis club. No initiation fee. Just decide each year whether you want to pay that $600 or not.[/QUOTE]
9. Memberships will be a lot easier to get rid of.
In your model, isn't that simply declining to renew for the next year?
What do you think will happen with timeshares in 50 years?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]
 

Larry M

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Interesting thread.

Timeshare artifacts will exist with weeks/deeds for certain weekly intervals at select ocean front or ski weeks that will be passed down by families. Think ocean front MOC, WKORV, Hyatt Kaanapali, Oahu. But this constitutes only a small percentage of system and these will be the holdouts.
The fixed-week model is unsustainable everywhere. When MOC, WKORV, Hyatt Kaanapali, and Oahu become so decrepit that they have to close for 24 months to rebuild from scratch, they're going to incur a large liability to the people whose weeks can't be delivered. And they cannot claim Act of God either.

I expect their deeds are like mine, with a drop-dead date buried in the fine print. At that point, management will sell the property and divide the proceeds among the owners and that's the end of fixed-week ownership.
 

Larry M

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I don’t care because I will be dead. I do know that I like my fixed weeks to drive to locations.

Easier than flying and all the logistics that come with big trips as you get older. Only thing is our units are on top floors with no elevators.

That issue and when we can no longer drive we will have to get rid of them. Sooner rather than later- just not yet.
I know exactly when my fixed week turns into a pumpkin pulled by six rats. It's at 4:00 pm on the first Sunday in 2026. (The only ambiguity is the time zone and the contract was executed in South Carolina so it's arguably Eastern Standard Time.)

Just curious, Mary Ann. Do you know when yours evaporates?
 

oldxr

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Airbnb and other websites are the will end the timeshare business in a few years . I stay at different timeshares in Cabo and 1 place is installing rooms for hotel or membership club use . The deeded week is a dinosaur .
 

WinniWoman

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I know exactly when my fixed week turns into a pumpkin pulled by six rats. It's at 4:00 pm on the first Sunday in 2026. (The only ambiguity is the time zone and the contract was executed in South Carolina so it's arguably Eastern Standard Time.)

Just curious, Mary Ann. Do you know when yours evaporates?
I’m not sure what you mean. Are you talking about a Sunset clause? Because mine does not have one, but the resort does have what they call The Farewell Program that you can “ apply” for at certain times when they send out an announcement. Usually they give you like 24 hours to apply, too.

As for the other one we have I know of no such thing and it has no sunset clause either.
 

Bao Nguyen

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Airbnb and other websites are the will end the timeshare business in a few years . I stay at different timeshares in Cabo and 1 place is installing rooms for hotel or membership club use . The deeded week is a dinosaur .

I don’t think Airbnb will end timeshare. Hawaii is heavily fine short term rental.
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/09/12/first-fines-be-issued-under-honolulus-strict-vacation-rental-law/

https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2019/09/hike-in-illegal-rental-fines-moves-forward/[/QUOTE]
 

Coach Boon

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I believe many other t/s owners like us are finding the ability to confirm resorts, which we used to get into with regularity, is getting harder if not impossible. With the increased presence of VRBO, Home Away and other short term rental operations, and the ever increasing maintenance fees being assessed owners of timeshares, it is apparent to us that it's easier and cheaper to get into specific locations using Home Away, etc. than exchanging timeshares points or weeks. I believe the timeshare industry is going to disappear as we know it. We are bailing out of our WM credits and are using Home Away more often to get to locations we want that we can't get to using timeshare exchanges via II or RCI, and for equal of less overall cost.
Agree with you a 100% overthehill. To add, because we fly in most cases package deals makes it easy and often comparable in cost. We're still trading as we have no travel restrictions but we are discussing at what point do we sell/return our TS to take advantage of all the other non TS options.
 
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