What to Do, Maui

[csodjd]

We still have our May 23-30 reservation for our 2BR OF at the Marriott in Kaanapali. Canceled my air. Haven't deposited into II yet.

Was looking today at the COVID data/forecast for Hawaii. Pasted in part below. Basically it shows nobody dying or being hospitalized after about April 25th or so. That suggests to me they expect the virus to be essentially gone from the island by May. That begs the question, how long will they maintain their "no tourists" defense. I suspect they'll look closely at the COVID data at the source of the tourism. They have tough calls to make, with summer coming. At what point will the consider it safe for people to come in from California? The California curve (also pasted in part below) shows peak resources use April 14, with no new hospitalizations by about May 15. Hmmm. Will they restart flights by May 23? Or do I throw in the towel?

 

[icydog]

The answer to your question is an unambiguous “who knows“? I pray everything will open up for travel to HI by May, but I really doubt that will happen. If I were you I cancel your reservation as soon as possible.

 

[gln60]

Your guess is as good as anybody’s...

 

[lynne]

The statistics for Hawaii are based on no new cases due to outside travel onto the islands. All of Hawaii's cases were from residents and non-residents who traveled here from the mainland or a cruise ship. I seriously doubt the state will be open for any new visitors before the end of June at the earliest as our medical system cannot handle an influx of cases.

These are just my thoughts from our nightly news reports. Our inter-island travel is also very limited with 14 day quarantines unless you are exempt as essential.

 

[rthib]

No reason to deposit before 14 days. Wait and see.

 

[icydog]

No reason to deposit before 14 days. Wait and see.

Isn’t that a late deposit?

 

[JIMinNC]

As I'm sure you know, these are just the IMHE model forecasts. Their forecast algorithms assume that stay-at-home and quarantine orders remain in place until at least May 31. So, if the government authorities put any credence into this modeling, I honestly don't see how anything can be relaxed until well into June. First and foremost, though, they are just projections - the reality on the ground will dictate when the quarantine rules actually change.

The thing that troubles me most about this IMHE model, though, is it drops deaths and hospitalizations in the entire US to basically zero by around the end of June or so. To my non-medical brain that seems to imply that the models are saying the virus is gone from the environment, but the WHO, CDC, and NIH seem to be saying at the same time that the virus has spread too much already to be totally eradicated that soon and that we will be dealing with it at some level for a long time. The people that developed the model are a lot smarter than me, so I assume they understand all that and could explain why their model goes to zero, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I hope I'm wrong, but our next Hawaii trip is not until January 2021, and I fear the chances we'll even be able to make that trip are 50-50, at best.

 

[Pamplemousse]

Isn’t that a late deposit?

Yes 59 days to 14 days is late deposit but all the same.

 

[csodjd]

No reason to deposit before 14 days. Wait and see.

That's kind of what I was thinking... though I think my wife might be a harder sell than any governmental authority.

 

[Steve Fatula]

The thing that troubles me most about this IMHE model, though, is it drops deaths and hospitalizations in the entire US to basically zero by around the end of June or so. To my non-medical brain that seems to imply that the models are saying the virus is gone from the environment, but the WHO, CDC, and NIH seem to be saying at the same time that the virus has spread too much already to be totally eradicated that soon and that we will be dealing with it at some level for a long time. The people that developed the model are a lot smarter than me, so I assume they understand all that and could explain why their model goes to zero, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I hope I'm wrong, but our next Hawaii trip is not until January 2021, and I fear the chances we'll even be able to make that trip are 50-50, at best.

The FAQ in the IMHE model site says this, below. I suspect they can't really model further as there will be too many variables as far as how we proceed.

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

 

[csodjd]

The FAQ in the IMHE model site says this, below. I suspect they can't really model further as there will be too many variables as far as how we proceed.

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

Well, that's reassuring.

 

[jancurious]

Well if this gives you any insight to when HI might open up:

"Updated 4/05/20 3am HST. Today Southwest Hawaii flights were cancelled through at least June 4. The only exceptions are “essential flights” referenced below. Flights are now set to resume between June 5 and June 6, depending on route. Prior to this latest update, Southwest said flights were only scheduled to be off through May 2.

Keep in mind that if you have reservations for cancelled flights between now and then, in addition to refunds being available (for any cancelled domestic flight), Southwest routinely has no change or cancellation fees.

The flights that are still operating between now and June include only limited service between Oakland and Honolulu and even less frequently between Oakland and Maui. They are also continuing to provide twice daily inter-island flights for critical travel from Honolulu to Hilo, Kona, and Kauai. They will also fly three times daily from Honolulu to Maui."


We had a two week reservation to Kauai for mid June and was able to call Marriott and rebook it for early October. We'll see if that one even goes.......

 

[MikeM132]

We still have our May 23-30 reservation for our 2BR OF at the Marriott in Kaanapali. Canceled my air. Haven't deposited into II yet.

Was looking today at the COVID data/forecast for Hawaii. Pasted in part below. Basically it shows nobody dying or being hospitalized after about April 25th or so. That suggests to me they expect the virus to be essentially gone from the island by May. That begs the question, how long will they maintain their "no tourists" defense. I suspect they'll look closely at the COVID data at the source of the tourism. They have tough calls to make, with summer coming. At what point will the consider it safe for people to come in from California? The California curve (also pasted in part below) shows peak resources use April 14, with no new hospitalizations by about May 15. Hmmm. Will they restart flights by May 23? Or do I throw in the towel?


View attachment 18753

View attachment 18754

I just cancelled my United award trip, MOC and KoOlina for Sept 11-25 this year due to continued uncertainty. I think parts of this will drag on for months. I'm regrouping but am very sad about Hawaii as I was really excited to get back there. Been 8 years now.

 

[csodjd]

I see that Hilton Hawaiian Village announced yesterday that they are shutting down all operations and closing on Monday, apparently laying off 1700 employees. Also, there was a "cluster" of new cases in Maui at their hospital (https://mauinow.com/2020/04/10/maui...o-19-includes-3-more-employees-and-1-patient/).

Seems Maui/Hawaii has a way to go.

I cancelled my MOC for May and deposited into II. My step-daughter moved her Memorial weekend wedding in Hana to November, so now we've got reservations for November at HHV and in Hana.

 

[jtp1947]

It looks like I am going to deposit my July 10, 2020 2 bedroom O/F MOC villa into I. I. Is the only advantage if I deposit more that 60 days in advance that I will be able to search I. I. a year in advance vs. 120 days in advance with less than 60 days deposit? Also, can I lock off and deposit both units? I have never dealt with I. I. as we use our week every year.

 

[csodjd]

It looks like I am going to deposit my July 10, 2020 2 bedroom O/F MOC villa into I. I. Is the only advantage if I deposit more that 60 days in advance that I will be able to search I. I. a year in advance vs. 120 days in advance with less than 60 days deposit? I have never dealt with I. I. as we use our week every year.

I'm like you... always used our week and never used II. But since I had passed the 60-day mark before deciding I had to cancel I didn't look at the "what if" since it was spilled milk, but I do believe there are definite and significant advantages to depositing before the 60-day mark passes.

 

[Pamplemousse]

It looks like I am going to deposit my July 10, 2020 2 bedroom O/F MOC villa into I. I. Is the only advantage if I deposit more that 60 days in advance that I will be able to search I. I. a year in advance vs. 120 days in advance with less than 60 days deposit? Also, can I lock off and deposit both units? I have never dealt with I. I. as we use our week every year.

A big advantage to making a regular deposit vs a late deposit into II is that you can place a request (aka ongoing search).
Your deposit is good for 2 years and you can search and request all the way to the expiration date.
So if you request a Marriott 13months in advance you are their waiting when the deposits start.
If you are new to II check out the faq and buyers guide (legal) at the bottom of any page on II and go to the general discussion section of the community for video tutorials.

 

[deniseh]

The FAQ in the IMHE model site says this, below. I suspect they can't really model further as there will be too many variables as far as how we proceed.

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

I keep hearing from different sources that there is a good possibility of COVID being present in our country from late 2019 into 2020. Many people had respiratory symptoms who were never tested for it as there was no testing at that time. So it is quite possible that the 97% of the population being susceptible is much lower which would change things dramatically. It would be great to be tested for immunity so we would know who really needs to take special precautions.