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Tracking a pandemic: Q&A with a COVID-19 detective

T_R_Oglodyte

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Nice Q and A with one of the leading corona virus chasers in the world.


A key point - when COVID-19 appears in a new area, that's not because there has been importation of cases. Rather, the virus has been spreading there for some time, and the number of cases is now large e enough to trigger detection.

Important corollaries: If you live in area where no cases have been reported, that doesn't mean the virus hasn't arrived yet. It just means the outbreak in your area hasn't become large enough to be detected. And that means that everyone should be acing as if the novel coronavirus is in your community.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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A news item from the Seattle Times about some more of Trevor Bedford's work.


On March 12, after President Donald Trump banned travel to the U.S. from many European countries, Bedford posted another series of tweets, suggesting the ban would have little impact. Most of the new infections in the U.S. are being spread by people who are already here, he calculates. “I believe the focus needs to be on testing and case finding in the US to slow transmission here,” he wrote. “Introductions through air travel are likely to have a more minor impact at this point.”

My take is that only refers to the movement of the virus. Being confined on a plane for several hours with someone who is infectious still seems like a good way to catch the virus. It just means that air travel is no longer a primary means for spreading the virus, at least in the countries where it has gained a foothold. .
 
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