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Timeshare prices to rise?

lindner

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Below is an article from the Charleston Post and Courier newspaper reporting from the resort and second home symposium.

After a half-decade slide, midpoint values for homes will turn up this year, said Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. He spoke Monday at Kiawah Island as part of the group's annual Resort and Second Home Symposium.

Diving inventory, a lag in new home construction, declining jobless rate and cautious but cash-rich banks with money to lend are all signs that pent-up demand is zeroing in on moderate supply, he said.

Yun believes that any index that tracks home costs will show a year-to-year price hike including the NAR's figures and the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

"You can look back and say, 2012, there was a price increase," Yun said.

A climb in home prices would be another bit of evidence that the long-term national housing trough could be ending.

In addressing the vacation home and resort brokers, Yun said the market for second properties and getaways has been "virtually nonexistent" for the past few years.

But sales and prices should rebound more quickly than the market as a whole, because the second home and resort business is more volatile and subject to sharper up and down swings.

The national profile of a vacation homeowner is 49-years-old with $99,500 median income. The 55-64 year old age group, a leader in population growth, is also a big resort and second home buying market.

"The pool is rising yet sales are not," Yun said, noting that recent gains in the stock market should help bankroll potential vacation and second home buyers.

The second-home market had a larger percentage sales decline in 2010 than home sales as a whole. He predicts "very modest increase" for 2011.

Talking about the housing market as a whole, Yun said the "potential shadow inventory" of foreclosed properties that banks hold shouldn't tax the market except maybe for a few isolated areas.

"I don't see that as being a significant problem, if there are buyers," Yun said.

One lagging indicator is home starts, which reached a 50-year low, Yun said. That might be a signal for a boost in new construction. But thus far it hasn't: Existing inventory is at its smallest point in six years.

Yun had high marks for the Charleston area as a vacation and second home attraction. He called the region a "hidden bargain" -- home to established resorts but with prices that aren't rebounding as fast as in some markets. Major economic deals such as Boeing plant and sports coups such as the 2012 PGA golf Championship to be played at Kiawah's Ocean Course are bound to draw interest, he said.

However he noted that local real estate agents in anecdotal comments said foreclosed properties in the Charleston area "are lingering in the market for some time."

Jonathan Holt, a Realtor downtown who focuses on vacation and second home sales, said there's a disconnect between what people perceive to be happening in the housing market and what's going on now.

Joe Salvo, sales and marketing director at Seabrook Island, is upbeat. "It's much better than it's been," he says. The island has "lots of activity."
 

vckempson

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Talking about the housing market as a whole, Yun said the "potential shadow inventory" of foreclosed properties that banks hold shouldn't tax the market except maybe for a few isolated areas.

"I don't see that as being a significant problem, if there are buyers," Yun said.

Therein is the lynch pin of his entire assesment. You gotta have buyers. As long as you have those, everything will be fine. Duh!

I do agree with his assessment. His comments also support my belief that secondary homes, and TS's are correlated to the general housing market. For me at least, that brings some level of comfort that this dirge of a real estate market will eventually pass... ergo same for timeshares.
 
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lindner

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Therein is the lynch pin of his entire assesment. You gotta have buyers. As long as you have those, everything will be fine. Duh!

I do agree with his assessment. His comments also support my belief that secondary homes, and TS's are correlated to the general housing market. For me at least, that brings some level of comfort as this dirge of a real estate market will eventually pass... ergo same for timeshares.

Good point! He should have stated that his analysis only applies to prime timeshare, e.g., red weeks, points, etc. Even a rising economy is not going to raise the price of blue and white weeks that no one wants. However, even today one can see choice timeshares selling on eBay, and these could very well see the appreciation this economist is predicting.
 

Carolinian

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Good point! He should have stated that his analysis only applies to prime timeshare, e.g., red weeks, points, etc. Even a rising economy is not going to raise the price of blue and white weeks that no one wants. However, even today one can see choice timeshares selling on eBay, and these could very well see the appreciation this economist is predicting.

Small points packages have exactly the same problem as the off season weeks on which they are based. Points generally is a narrower part of the resale market as they only appeal to a certain level of exchangers. They are of no interest to own to use buyers, who constitute the lions share of timeshare resale buyers, not to many exchangers who prefer a weeks based system.

Prime timeshare, fixed prime weeks at well located resorts will always sell well. And some resorts will do well any time of year, like Isle of Palms Beach Club there in the Charleston area. A short distance from the wonderful historic city of Charleston and bang on the beach, that resort has the three most important things in timeshare - location, location, and location.

However, when it comes to timeshare, turmoil in exchanging will impact all but the most prime weeks and I suspect it will be a while before that stabilizes.
 
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