Timeshare industry consolidation to continue?

[gravityrules]

One of the long term TS industry trends that many here correctly saw coming years ago is consolidation.
There are now 3 publicly traded companies that are dominant - TNL, VAC and HGV.

1. Does anyone know what % of the US market these 3 control?

2. What public or private companies are #4, #5, #6 ? I suppose revenue is the appropriate measure, not really talking about TS systems or popularity.

3. Do you think consolidation will continue to be a theme in the TS industry? If so, what companies do you see being acquisition targets and what companies will be the 'acquirers'?

 

[jp10558]

I don't know enough about how the systems vs management vs developer exactly works. But I don't really see buying a large manager like Vacation Village or Capital Vacations fitting in well with HGV or VAC. They're likely too downmarket and HGV has the DRI and BG to digest still - that's enough locations and downmarket for quite a few years as far as I can tell.

TNL seems more OK / ready / prepared for kind of a random assortment of locations, but I question if after Worldmark they want another incompatible system. TNL also has the most varied locations already, so IDK if there's value for them to want to integrate (in any way) VV or CV. I don't think any of the systems need more locations in Orlando... I could see them trying to take over parts of stand alone resorts, especially if they can add them to CWP or WM but IDK how possible that would be. The upshot of that is different locations, which can always be beneficial, but there's still the potential needed uplift.

 

[gravityrules]

Are there any public TS companies other than the 'big 3'? Disney, but TS is a relatively minor part there. I'm not sure DVC would rank if it was split out in terms of revenue. I don't see DVC being on either end of consolidation.

I don't think acquisitions necessarily have to be just from the Big 3. Of the TS companies left, Capital Vacations seems to be the one most likely to be in the acquisition phase. They have private equity backing. The proudly proclaimed they are the fastest growing company in the industry. It seems to me their business model is similar to Diamond's.
That seems to have worked out well for Diamond's ownership/management group, maybe less so for TS owners. I remember a lot of complaints at the time that Diamond was financing their expansion and upgrades off the backs of existing TS owners. A clever trick if you can pull it off!
My sense is that private equity has a defined number of years in which they expect a significant return on their investment. Getting bought out or taken public are typical ways that can be achieved.

VV's website states they are employee owned.
Westgate, HICV, Spinnaker are privately owned. Many of the privately owned systems are at generational ownership change points. Will the next gen of owners stay interested in running a TS business?