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The future of II?

altiste1

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I’m curious what you think the value of II will be in the future. A few questions along this line:
1. Reading the forums here I’ve seen mention of sales weasels saying Marriott or other systems will be feeding a smaller amount of inventory to the system in the future. Any truth there?
2. What percentage of the inventory in II comes from developer deposits v. owner deposits?
3. It would seem that the willingness of owners to deposit depends on the expectation they have of making a good trade. If the owners believe that destinations they want won’t be available to achieve by trading then they won’t deposit their own weeks, and a key source of inventory will dry up. I’d expect a pretty fast downward spiral in utilization and membership from there. Does that seem right?
4. For those who have been trading in II for years, have you noticed a change (positive or negative) in your ability to get good trades over time? Is it better or worse today than in the past? Do you expect that trend (whatever it is) to continue?
 

dmbrand

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#4. I am still a happy Interval customer of 15 years, and have been seeing very desirable exchanges continue to appear. So far, I haven’t been discouraged, so I do expect this trend to continue. Timeshare ownership is so fluid; I don’t know if anyone really has a finger on the pulse of the industry. Owners age out, younger families want more space, many baby boomers have excess cash, weather is unpredictable in coastal regions, etc are all factors. Interval is owned by a major player in the vacation industry, so I feel that they will be around and successful for a while. I am not a Marriott owner, however, so my perspective might be different than others.
 

klpca

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All of the developers who are requiring a developer purchase to exchange within their internal exchange program essentially force resale owners to exchange with II or RCI. IMO, as long as there are resale owners who are excluded from the internal exchange network, there will be a robust exchange market.

If you only want to stay in Marriott or Disney, and want certainty, then you may want to buy something that will get you into those systems.

I'm still getting *great* exchanges in II. Carry on :)
 

mdurette

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Agreed - there will always be owners that need/want to exchange, so II will have a purpose. My exchanges have also been GREAT!

But, what I have decreased my II usuage for in just the last month or two is getaway purchases. The pricing has increased alot and if it continues, I do know that is not an aspect of II that I will utilize as much as I have in the past.
 

zentraveler

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I also have gotten good exchanges through II over the years and also good AC use (especially during covid) with FSRC and still see and use some good getaways.
 

davidvel

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I agree with the comments above. While I have gotten many of my exchanges through "bulk deposits", these are not the highest value trades. Most if not all of these deposits are off-season, "kids in school" exchanges in the big picture. Our kids have always done fine in school taking vacations during the school year, so we have had many amazing "easy" exchanges. (But we consistently have been able to trade in to ski weeks over winter and spring breaks, uptrading in size, as well.)

I am not sure exactly how/why bulk deposits occur. ie. what does Marriott get back for those, etc? So, I don't see what the points game does to change whatever motivated them to make these deposits in the past.

Overall, I have not seen a significant change in trade value or trading in general, other than the tightening of allowing studios to almost always get a 2BR as they did in the past. But I think this is a change in policy and not due to inventory.
 

dougp26364

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I’m curious what you think the value of II will be in the future. A few questions along this line:
1. Reading the forums here I’ve seen mention of sales weasels saying Marriott or other systems will be feeding a smaller amount of inventory to the system in the future. Any truth there?
2. What percentage of the inventory in II comes from developer deposits v. owner deposits?
3. It would seem that the willingness of owners to deposit depends on the expectation they have of making a good trade. If the owners believe that destinations they want won’t be available to achieve by trading then they won’t deposit their own weeks, and a key source of inventory will dry up. I’d expect a pretty fast downward spiral in utilization and membership from there. Does that seem right?
4. For those who have been trading in II for years, have you noticed a change (positive or negative) in your ability to get good trades over time? Is it better or worse today than in the past? Do you expect that trend (whatever it is) to continue?
#1 DON’T LISTEN TO THE SALES WEASELS! They’re using fear to sell you something. We made our first purchase in 1998 and they’ve been using that same old worn our line ever since.

#2 No clue then, no clue now what percentage is developer deposits vs owner deposits. My guess is developers have learned they can rent through various online outlets for better returns than deposit and try to get those exchangers 8nto the sales room.

#3 Developers have done a very good job of building “exclusive” internal exchange programs. Hilton and DVC have had that ball rolling for years. Marriott, Bluegreen, Wyndham, Sunterra/DRI, Welk, Hyatt/Westin/Vistana have done excellent jobs of building internal exchange/reservation systems, and, thereby, controlling their inventory. For owners in those systems, the “good” trades may be within the systems, especially since most new owners have been sold on the idea of internal rather than external “trades”

#4 I have to go back to #3 on this one. We own Marriott, Hilton, Spinnaker and Breckenridge Grand Vacations. We bag a with Hilton in 2002. We’ve exchanged that ownership exactly ONCE with RCI. I never plan on exchanging it again. We bought for specific use in that system and will keep within that system for the foreseeable future. Once MVC went to their points system, we’ve done the same. Since that time, we have not exchanged outside the Marriott family. The BGV and Spinnaker were purchased to use, not exchange. When we’re done using them, we’ll dispose of them.

We use to get great exchanges through II. Our first purchase was at Polo Towers. We’d lock off our unit and use the studio II t for instant exchanges to trade up in size. We still have an II account and I actually have a studio week deposited. Those upgrades are now significantly more expensive, but they’re still there. Maybe not as plentiful and the inventory has shifted, but I can still find acceptable trades, we just don’t need them. The only reason we even have the deposit is we couldn’t get the dates we wanted at our home MVC resort for our full unit, so we locked it off and I deposited the studio side, thinking maybe I might be able to use it for something. Prior to that special circumstance, our last exchange using our personal account was 2015. We’ll allow that account to expire by non-renewal when it’s due. So for us, II has gone from an integral part of timeshare ownership to a non-factor. Partially because of the well built internal exchange programs of Hilton and Marriott. Partly because II has become to expensive with to many extra fees to accomplish what we use to be able to do at what was once a great value.

IMHO, things have shifted, but they haven’t dried up. Things a have shifted since day one, will continue to shift and the sales weasels will use anything they can to scare you into buying something new.

As for us our personal use has shifted significantly. We use to make 3 or 4 exchanges per year through interval. Our last exchange through II was 2018 through our corporate Marriott account (Marriott to Marriott exchange) and 2020 through our personal account, and that exchange was due to a job change, forcing us to deposit our owner week or lose it. We deposited and exchanged back into our home resort when we could go, just to keep from losing usage.
 

bnoble

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There have been two trends in exchange for as long as I've been an owner. First, the market is fracturing, in that there are many more options for an owner to use their time. As mentioned above, internal exchange systems have reduced the need for some owners to participate. As a side effect, those systems have more control over what is deposited. There are also more options that are more transparent: third-party exchanges, renting has become easier, etc. Second, exchange is becoming more "efficient" in the economic sense. That's a fancy way of saying "It's harder to find awesome deals." The exchanges have gotten better at evening out the value of what you have to give up for what you get, and this is inevitable.

However, neither of those matter. The real question is: Can I still get exchanges that deliver decent value? Not "will I" but "can I". And, the answer that for most of us is probably yes. Will that change someday? Maybe. But, you don't need to solve that problem until it happens.
 

LMD

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I have been a member of II for a long time and was a member of RCI as well . Still getting great exchanges with II. I gave up RCI a few years back after 17 years of membership because the quality of exchanges was diminishing and the cost of exchanging was increasing.
 

rickandcindy23

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All of the developers who are requiring a developer purchase to exchange within their internal exchange program essentially force resale owners to exchange with II or RCI. IMO, as long as there are resale owners who are excluded from the internal exchange network, there will be a robust exchange market.

If you only want to stay in Marriott or Disney, and want certainty, then you may want to buy something that will get you into those systems.

I'm still getting *great* exchanges in II. Carry on :)
This is my thinking as well. Totally agree!
 

altiste1

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Wyndham Bali Hai
All of the developers who are requiring a developer purchase to exchange within their internal exchange program essentially force resale owners to exchange with II or RCI. IMO, as long as there are resale owners who are excluded from the internal exchange network, there will be a robust exchange market.

If you only want to stay in Marriott or Disney, and want certainty, then you may want to buy something that will get you into those systems.

I'm still getting *great* exchanges in II. Carry on :)
This makes sense on the demand side of the equation. As far as supply, with Marriott and other major developers exercising ROFR on legacy weeks and selling (mostly) points, doesn't this reduce the potential pool of owner weeks to be traded? Is there any way of knowing if the user base of II has expanded or contracted over the years?
 

sponger76

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This makes sense on the demand side of the equation. As far as supply, with Marriott and other major developers exercising ROFR on legacy weeks and selling (mostly) points, doesn't this reduce the potential pool of owner weeks to be traded? Is there any way of knowing if the user base of II has expanded or contracted over the years?
There are still a huge number of resale transactions that don't have ROFR exercised; unless developers exercise it on 100% (or even 50%) of those transactions, you will always have resale owners who don't have access to internal exchanges in systems like Abound or VSN and thus will need an external exchange system. In addition, even for retail owners of both weeks and points, there will always be times when they will want to go somewhere not covered by their internal system and will need external exchanges. Keep in mind that even points owners can exchange in II/RCI, and that their home system has to deposit an actual week into those exchanges to facilitate this.
 

gln60

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I think it’s safe to say that Interval International will be around for a long time.
 
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Eggrollcreative

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Agreed - there will always be owners that need/want to exchange, so II will have a purpose. My exchanges have also been GREAT!

But, what I have decreased my II usuage for in just the last month or two is getaway purchases. The pricing has increased alot and if it continues, I do know that is not an aspect of II that I will utilize as much as I have in the past.
And no getaway is complete without the insurance apparently, so add that cost in. I won’t buy another per my hurricane cancellation thread.
 
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