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Thanksgiving: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

DrQ

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Take the modeling data as you like:
This map shows the risk level of attending an event, given the event size and location.​
The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.​
Based on seroprevalence data, we assume there are ten times more cases than are being reported (10:1 ascertainment bias). In places with more testing availability, that rate may be lower.​
Choose an event size and ascertainment bias below.​

 

Patri

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21% for me.
 

heathpack

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Wow, that’s interesting.

I chose a 5% ascertainment bias since LA County has had lots of testing for awhile now. Looking at a gathering of 10 people, the risk is 9%. Lower than I thought.
 

DrQ

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A good start. What I would like to see is a calculation of risk based on:
  • Duration of the event
  • Indoor/Outdoor
  • Masked/Unmasked
  • Social distancing radius
 

JohnPaul

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Even though we are traveling (one state over) we will be a party of 2 cooking in. Risk similar to home.
 

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Why testing negative for COVID before Thanksgiving doesn't guarantee safety.




Richard
 

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Why testing negative for COVID before Thanksgiving doesn't guarantee safety.




Richard

Duh. Been saying this from day 1, which is why the testing thing in these kinds of situations is ridiculous unless you can be tested on the spot and get the results instantaneously.

Hence- take reasonable precautions, protect the vulnerable and enjoy life as best you can. Bring on the turkey, share with who you can and give thanks for what we have.
 

Luanne

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If I'm reading it correctly we're at an 83% risk level for a large group and 30% for a small group. We had already planned on staying home with just immediate family, meaning those that live in the house.
 

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Duh. Been saying this from day 1, which is why the testing thing in these kinds of situations is ridiculous unless you can be tested on the spot and get the results instantaneously.

Hence- take reasonable precautions, protect the vulnerable and enjoy life as best you can. Bring on the turkey, share with who you can and give thanks for what we have.
Not one in the same. With negative tests a group is a lot safer then no test. Your idea seems to be that because nothing is 100% throw caution to the wind and accept the virus will eventually come and possibly kill.
 

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Here we go. Tuggers: Restraint is your friend!
 
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Paumavista

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"""Why testing negative for COVID before Thanksgiving doesn't guarantee safety."""
Even with access to rapid testing.....our kids were traveling (staying/visiting with friends enroute) or attending college or working right up until they are able to test so we gave up using this as an option and will call everyone & wish them a happy Thanksgiving. My Dr suggested 7 days of isolation prior to rapid testing (and quarantining after the test until you get results)....we were personally willing to shorten the "before test" isolation and take our chances at 3-4 days of isolation prior to testing (enough time we hoped for the virus to "register" with most tests). We are going to try at Christmas.....(kids are out of school) most of the family will have more flexibility to isolate a few days before testing, then get in the car & drive direct to us after getting their negative results. We will wait and see.........how we all feel next month.[/QUOTE]
 
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DrQ

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Why testing negative for COVID before Thanksgiving doesn't guarantee safety.
That's not a factor in this tool. What it does is calculate the probability encountering a COVID-19 positive person based on:
  • The infection rate of the county
  • Size of the event
Forewarned is forearmed.

UTA: The ascertainment bias just helps SWAG for the county reporting numbers if testing is not that aggressive/available.
 
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DannyTS

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Take the modeling data as you like:
This map shows the risk level of attending an event, given the event size and location.​
The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.​
Based on seroprevalence data, we assume there are ten times more cases than are being reported (10:1 ascertainment bias). In places with more testing availability, that rate may be lower.​
Choose an event size and ascertainment bias below.​

this is very poorly developed and rather misleading if the basis is the seroprevalence of those TESTED rather than the general population. Hawaii found out how wrong their predictions were when only 9 out of 15,000 of those arriving without a pre-flight test were positive. Given how oversensitive the tests are, probably just one in 15,000 was actually positive.
 

DrQ

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DannyTS

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There are counties (like Crowley, Colorado) that supposedly have a 99% risk. For a party of 10 that would mean that 10% of the population of that county currently has covid AND is contagious. Ridiculous

"Calculators" and models like this brought us where we are.
 

DrQ

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DrQ

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1606158063800.png
 

DrQ

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There are counties (like Crowley, Colorado) that supposedly have a 99% risk. For a party of 10 that would mean that 10% of the population of that county currently has covid AND is contagious. Ridiculous

"Calculators" and models like this brought us where we are.
Not so. If you look it up in wikipedia:
"As of the census[10] of 2000, there were 5,518 people ... Census data for Crowley County includes 1,955 prisoners."​

It just tool and small sample sizes can skew results. As you get a larger population, a normal distribution will be applied.

You're familiar with tools aren't you?
 

DannyTS

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Not so. If you look it up in wikipedia:
"As of the census[10] of 2000, there were 5,518 people ... Census data for Crowley County includes 1,955 prisoners."​

It just tool and small sample sizes can skew results. As you get a larger population, a normal distribution will be applied.

You're familiar with tools aren't you?
Something still terribly wrong with that. How many people currently have Covid in that county? I cannot believe 550 out of 5500 have Covid. How did you get to a 99% risk?
 

DrQ

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Something still terribly wrong with that. How many people currently have Covid in that county? I cannot believe 550 out of 5500 have Covid. How did you get to a 99% risk?
Google is your friend. There are currently a cumulative total of ~1000 C-19 cases and out of the box, the model assumes 5% more than reported.

Given the numbers, in a group of 50, per the algorithm, there is a 99% chance that at least one person will have COVID.

But again, the assumption is most likely a normal distribution, in this case it may not be appropriate, but if it meet a 4 sigma across the entire distribution of counties in the US, it is useful.

If you REALLY want to get into some fun stuff with probability, start looking into Quantum Physics. These arguments are just a variation on Schrödinger's cat supposition.
 

DannyTS

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Google is your friend. There are currently a cumulative total of ~1000 C-19 cases and out of the box, the model assumes 5% more than reported.

Given the numbers, in a group of 50, per the algorithm, there is a 99% chance that at least one person will have COVID.

But again, the assumption is most likely a normal distribution, in this case it may not be appropriate, but if it meet a 4 sigma across the entire distribution of counties in the US, it is useful.

If you REALLY want to get into some fun stuff with probability, start looking into Quantum Physics. These arguments are just a variation on Schrödinger's cat supposition.
I did not put a group of 50 but a group of 10 and the chance was 99%!

But OK, let's switch to Miami-Dade, population 2.8 millions. How did they get to a 24% risk for a party of 10?
 

DrQ

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I did not put a group of 50 but a group of 10 and the chance was 99%!

But OK, let's switch to Miami-Dade, population 2.8 millions. How did they get to a 24% risk for a party of 10?
Knock yourself out - are you familiar with a binomial probability model?
 
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