Surprise prediction on American Idol womens' elimination from Dialidol.com

[Mosca]

DialIdol.com is a website that lets your modem speed-dial your AI votes.

What it also does is measures the busy signal % and uses that to predict which contestants are getting the most votes. While it has not accurately picked all of the eliminated contestants this year, it has accurately predicted seven of the eight to within 1.9%. (Not meaning that it has picked 7, but that 7 have been no more than 1.9% from the bottom.)

From the owner of the site,

"Of 8 Idols to leave the show, 7 of them were within a very reasonable statiscal margin of error (3%). The one that wasn’t missed the margin by like .1% and if that weren’t enough it was on the first night this year with a very low call volume. 7/8 is 88% accurate which is pretty darn good for such low volume.

And if you look at the data further you’ll see it’s even closer than that. For example this week all four girls were within 1.9% of each other - amazingly close. For the guys DialIdol nailed David as the low vote getter dead on and the second lowest vote getters were seperated by 1.3%. If you look at the previous weeks stats you see the same story except for the first night where Stevie was an “anomally”.

Being accurate within 1.9% & 1.3% is pretty good if I do say so myself. Take into consideration that most Presidential polls have margins of error of 3%.

Now I am not saying it will be like this every week - no way, no how… I am simply “spinning” the results we’ve got to show how they have been accurate so far. Part of the reason for doing this is to actually validate whether 'measuring the busy signal' works or not and so far I think it’s pretty accurate."

AND, AI executive producer Nigel Lythgoe said on Good Morning LA that there was a shocker of a result from the women's vote.

So, Dialidol report from last night's program:

1 Kellie Pickler 47.5472
2 Mandisa 31.7793
3 Katharine McPhee 15.8222
4 Paris Bennett 13.4831
5 Melissa McGhee 11.1765
6 Ayla Brown 8.9498
7 Kinnik Sky 2.139
8 Lisa Tucker 1.4719

 

[Kelsie]

American Idol

Thank you for your interesting post. I know from last night Lisa didn't do as well as before, but I am surprised that she is on the bottom. I thought it would be Kinnikk. Mandesa and Kellie are really terriffic.

 

[GrayFal]

Interesting...I picked the top 3 as my favorites,,followed by # 4 Paris - who didn't have a good night...we will see!

 

[Patri]

Now this will be interesting as far as accuracy. Last night I called about 10 times before I got a busy signal on Elliot. I called for Kevin for an hour (oh, let's say 100 times) and NEVER got a busy signal. So I decided if Kevin makes it to the top 12, it is because of me. (I want him to have the tour experience, not to win). Anyway, this site predicts the top vote getters
1.Kevin
2.Taylor
3. Bucky
4. Chris
5. Ace
6. Elliot
7. Will
8. Gedeon
It thinks Will and Gedeon will go and I think they should, but the busy signal stuff has me confused.

 

[Mosca]

Well it missed Lisa, and personally I'm glad, I like her. I'll miss Ayla and Gedeon, I like them both, but it was time for Kinnik and Will to go...

But didn't both of them perform spectacularly with the pressure off? Kinnik stayed in key and belted it out, and Will gave a great relaxed off the cuff performance.

I think Gedeon has a lot of soul that only comes out when he sings. I think Ayla is a super girl who will go far.


Tom

 

[davenlib]

what is up with the Kevin thing

What concerns me is that Kevin is at the top of the list...come on guys...he cant sing......I just dont get it.....

 

[BevL]

I agree,I was shocked that Kevin wasn't kicked off and find it really hard to believe he's at all popular.

Bev

 

[ricoba]

What concerns me is that Kevin is at the top of the list...come on guys...he cant sing......I just dont get it.....

Could it be this???...... www.votefortheworst.com

 

[iluvwdw]

I called for Kevin for an hour (oh, let's say 100 times) and NEVER got a busy signal. So I decided if Kevin makes it to the top 12, it is because of me. (I want him to have the tour experience, not to win). Anyway, this site predicts the top vote getters

OMG, I did the SAME thing!!!! I didn't start calling until 10pm, when the phone lines were much easier to get through. I just kept hitting redial for Kevin, because he's such a likeable kid!!!! I KNOW he won't win, but I REALLY wanted him in the top 12 just so he can tour the country with the rest of the idols. He is genuine and although he really isn't the best talent on there (by far) he can still carry a tune. Plus, he lives 10-15 minutes from me!!!!!

 

[davenlib]

It makes me sad that people are voting for singers that they know are not any good.. In doing that, they are sending home kids that actually have talent.

Their actions in voting maliciously for a bad singer has a reverse negative reaction for someone else.. I find that so sad. Gideon deserved to tour the country as much as Kevin and he is a better singer....

Is that fair??? Absolutely not.....

 

[Patri]

It makes me sad that people are voting for singers that they know are not any good.. In doing that, they are sending home kids that actually have talent.
QUOTE]

Not really. Everyone that has gone home deserved to. They all have talent but appeal to different people for different reasons. Gedeon irritated me. Only one is going to win, but that doesn't mean only one is a good singer or can have a performance career.

 

[Mosca]

It makes me sad that people are voting for singers that they know are not any good.. In doing that, they are sending home kids that actually have talent.

Their actions in voting maliciously for a bad singer has a reverse negative reaction for someone else.. I find that so sad. Gideon deserved to tour the country as much as Kevin and he is a better singer....

Is that fair??? Absolutely not.....

That statement is only true in a theoretical sense, and would be valid if the show itself was not heavily edited and rigged to steer the voting to the contestants that the producers want to win.

First it is not an audition, nor a talent show; it is a competition. And a rigged one at that. If the final 12 were Frank Sinatra, Tony Bennett, Ella Fitzgerald, Barbra Streisand, Mel Torme, Luciano Pavarotti, Barry Manilow, Kiri TeKanewa, Bette Midler, Solomon Burke, Aretha Franklin, and Sam Cooke, 11 of them go home. If it were really about talent, ALL worthy contestants would get contracts.

Second, what the producers choose to show about the contestants counts far more in who advances than their talent does.


Don't believe me? Let's choose Gedeon McKinney. Do you think that he might have advanced farther IF the following (true) story had been told...

His first audition in September was washed out by Hurricane Katrina. He raised funds through bake sales and benefit concerts to get money to travel to Chicago to audition. His father died in December, but he decided to go ahead with the show anyhow.

Instead, they chose to show the guy as Buckwheat Zombie. Absolutely NO effort went into making him likeable. Six other male candidates had no trouble getting votes... do you think maybe Gedeon got jobbed by the editing?

But we DO know that they must not have "sal-mon" in North Carolina, at least not as far as Kellie Pickler knows. (What's next; kwesadilas? Riiiiiight.)

The ones they want you to like are "so adorable", "you're only sixteen", "you're already a star"; Ace sings creepy songs about pedophilia in falsetto and gets told that he is hot, but Melissa McKinney just absolutely NAILS a song and they tell her "You just booked your plane ticket home." Gedeon is only 17, and he sings like Percy Sledge... and gets told "your smile bothers me."

Don't get me wrong; I love the show. But I'm not deluded enough to think that there is any relationship between winning and being the best, or even being talented. Just like I'm not deluded into thinking that the Batchelors and Batchelorettes are really in love, that The Apprentice really gets a posh job leading a Trump company, and that the Survivors are really stranded in the jungle.

Oh, and losing hardly hurts; William Hung's Christmas album outsold ALL of Fantasia's albums put together.


Tom

 

[davenlib]

I totally agree with you and understand.. Everyone has their own opinions and yes the producers are putting a spin on it....
What bothers me is the people that are voting for the "bad" ones just to keep them around to show the producers who is boss...the "vote for the worst" website is what gets me...I dont agree with people voting for singers that they do not like, just to keep them around...that upsets what integrity there is about the show....

I guess I just want to believe that it is all about talent... oh well... I guess I will go have some calimari for lunch.....

 

[Rose Pink]

What bothers me is the people that are voting for the "bad" ones just to keep them around to show the producers who is boss...

I understand where you are coming from and I agree that what they are doing is wrong. Two wrongs don't make a right as my mommy always said. However, I can understand why they are doing it. None of us likes to be manipulated and this is a way to say "I am not going to be manipulated." It's a juvenile way of course and irrresponsible as you mentioned.

 

[iluvwdw]

You all have to remember that what's BAD for one person, isn't BAD for another. EVERYONE has a right to their opinions. They are all decent singers, or they wouldn't have made it this far, period. I am one of the people voting for Kevin, and YES I like him. I don't think he's a BAD SINGER at all. Definitely needs a little fine tuning, but I DEFINITELY don't thinks he's as awful as you think. But you have a right to your opinion, and I have a right to mine.

 

[Mosca]

I do believe Kevin is the only true amateur left; all the rest of them have pretty long professional resumes, singing or otherwise. Including Kellie "I ain't hardly ever sung for anyone ever, what's a sal-mon?" Pickler (twice a contestant for Miss North Carolina, runner-up in the "Gimmie The Mike Charlotte" contest).

Tom

 

[RichM]

I've finally decided who Elliott reminds me of.. Tumnus the Faun from the Chronicles of Narnia.

http://www.idolonfox.com/contestants/elliott_yamin/
vs.
http://www.imdb.com/gallery/ss/0363771/Ss/0363771/C282.jpg?path=pgallery&path_key=McAvoy, James



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[Rose Pink]

You're right! I hadn't made the connection until you pointed it out.

 

[Rose Pink]

I do believe Kevin is the only true amateur left; all the rest of them have pretty long professional resumes, singing or otherwise. Including Kellie "I ain't hardly ever sung for anyone ever, what's a sal-mon?" Pickler (twice a contestant for Miss North Carolina, runner-up in the "Gimmie The Mike Charlotte" contest).

Tom

I don't think AI was ever aimed specifically at amateurs, just "undiscovered" talent. As far as Kelly goes, my dd does not like her (and she is a big fan of Carrie's). She thinks Kelly saw that Carrie's "innocence" was rewarded and she is building on that. Personally, I think Simon hit it right on when he called her a minx. Neither Carrie nor Kelly is an innocent. Just look at what they wear and what they sing. Still . . . . I do find Kelly's comments rather amusing. I liked the tarantula eyelash comment. She reminds me a little of Gracie and also of Goldie Hawn (Laugh-In days). All of these women were brilliant. It takes brains to do comedy.

 

[Rose Pink]

You all have to remember that what's BAD for one person, isn't BAD for another. EVERYONE has a right to their opinions. They are all decent singers, or they wouldn't have made it this far, period. I am one of the people voting for Kevin, and YES I like him. I don't think he's a BAD SINGER at all. Definitely needs a little fine tuning, but I DEFINITELY don't thinks he's as awful as you think. But you have a right to your opinion, and I have a right to mine.

I wasn't saying that I think Kevin is "bad." I was agreeing with Davenlib about the "vote for the worst" people. My comment had nothing to do with any of the contestants but rather how the judges and producers are manipulating the contest and how people are responding to being manipulated.

 

[iluvwdw]

I wasn't saying that I think Kevin is "bad." I was agreeing with Davenlib about the "vote for the worst" people. My comment had nothing to do with any of the contestants but rather how the judges and producers are manipulating the contest and how people are responding to being manipulated.

Gotcha!

 

[Clemson Fan]

It makes me sad that people are voting for singers that they know are not any good.. In doing that, they are sending home kids that actually have talent.

Their actions in voting maliciously for a bad singer has a reverse negative reaction for someone else.. I find that so sad. Gideon deserved to tour the country as much as Kevin and he is a better singer....

Is that fair??? Absolutely not.....

That's a little melodramatic.

 

[Clemson Fan]

I understand where you are coming from and I agree that what they are doing is wrong. Two wrongs don't make a right as my mommy always said. However, I can understand why they are doing it. None of us likes to be manipulated and this is a way to say "I am not going to be manipulated." It's a juvenile way of course and irrresponsible as you mentioned.

LOL. I'm sure Fox can care less about this website and gets the last laugh as they can very easily be the one manipulating the VFTW folks.

I don't remember Fox ever saying that they had an independent source tabulating the results. I don't even remember Fox ever releasing the results besides who won or who got eliminated and total number of votes, but no vote totals for each contestant. Fox can very easily ignore the vote totals and choose whomever they want for whatever.

I wouldn't be surprised if they throw in people into the "bottom three" without eliminating them even thought they were no where near the bottom three in order to stir the pot a little. Stirring the pot is always good for ratings which are the only thing that matters.