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Study shows that PCR tests with 35 cycles or more have an accuracy below 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives.

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Danny- your title is a false inaccurate statement of this test and gives no context.
oh, really? New York Times will give you context and education on the subject.


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In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
 

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The NYTimes piece doesn't support the thread title either.
What does the New York Times say that is not consistent with my headline? NYT wrote that 90% are false positive and you claim that the NYT piece does not support my title? I did not say that the estimates from the study and the New York Times article are identical but clearly they both show a very high degree of false positives for the tests (a majority actually ) with more than 35 amplifications.

The study in the OP states that: "At Ct = 35, the value we used to report a positive result for PCR, <3% of cultures are positive. Our Ct value of 35, initially based on the results obtained by RT-PCR on control negative samples in our laboratory and initial results of cultures [8], is validated by the results herein presented and is in correlation with what was proposed in Korea [9] and Taiwan [10]. We could observe that subcultures, especially the first one, allow an increasing percentage of viral isolation in samples with Ct values, confirming that these high Ct values are mostly correlated with low viral loads. From our cohort, we now need to try to understand and define the duration and frequency of live virus shedding in patients on a case-by-case basis in the rare cases when the PCR is positive beyond 10 days, often at a Ct >30. In any cases, these rare cases should not impact public health decisions."
 
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The NYT and the study are very clear. I bet you read neither.
 

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What does the New York Times say that is not consistent with my headline? NYT wrote that 90% are false positive and you claim that the NYT piece does not support my title? I did not say that the estimates from the study and the New York Times article are identical but clearly they both show a very high degree of false positives for the tests (a majority actually ) with more than 35 amplifications.

The study in the OP states that: "At Ct = 35, the value we used to report a positive result for PCR, <3% of cultures are positive. Our Ct value of 35, initially based on the results obtained by RT-PCR on control negative samples in our laboratory and initial results of cultures [8], is validated by the results herein presented and is in correlation with what was proposed in Korea [9] and Taiwan [10]. We could observe that subcultures, especially the first one, allow an increasing percentage of viral isolation in samples with Ct values, confirming that these high Ct values are mostly correlated with low viral loads. From our cohort, we now need to try to understand and define the duration and frequency of live virus shedding in patients on a case-by-case basis in the rare cases when the PCR is positive beyond 10 days, often at a Ct >30. In any cases, these rare cases should not impact public health decisions."
Viral culturing is not gold standard for most viruses and is notoriously hard depending on virus and strain. Other viruses such as human metapneumovirus and b. pertussis/parapertussis are often not isolated in culture from symptomatic, contagious patients due to the difficulty in growing and transportation.
 

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"In a study published this week in Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers led by Bernard La Scola, an infectious diseases expert at IHU-Méditerranée Infection, examined 3790 positive samples with known CT values to see whether they harbored viable virus, indicating the patients were likely infectious. La Scola and his colleagues found that 70% of samples with CT values of 25 or below could be cultured, compared with less than 3% of the cases with CT values above 35. “It’s fair to say that having a higher viral load is associated with being more infectious,” says Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. "


 

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Viral culturing is not gold standard for most viruses and is notoriously hard depending on virus and strain. Other viruses such as human metapneumovirus and b. pertussis/parapertussis are often not isolated in culture from symptomatic, contagious patients due to the difficulty in growing and transportation.
CDC says otherwise

 

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The NYT and the study are very clear. I bet you read neither.
Guess that explains why hospitalization rates are so high... all the false positives. :rolleyes:
 

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Guess that explains why hospitalization rates are so high... all the false positives. :rolleyes:
People go the the hospital all the time. The more false positives, the more people in the hospital that will be recorded to be there for Covid. The same with the number of deaths. 1.2% of the population dies every year. The more false positives the more recorded as Covid deaths.
 

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People go the the hospital all the time. The more false positives, the more people in the hospital that will be recorded to be there for Covid. The same with the number of deaths. 1.2% of the population dies every year. The more false positives the more recorded as Covid deaths.
Deniers are why 2000 people are dying in a single day from the SIGNS and SYMPTOMS of COVID.
 

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People go the the hospital all the time. The more false positives, the more people in the hospital that will be recorded to be there for Covid. The same with the number of deaths. 1.2% of the population dies every year. The more false positives the more recorded as Covid deaths.

yeah, it's a big hospitalization conspiracy with "false covid positives"

facepalm.jpg
 

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Deniers are why 2000 people are dying in a single day from the SIGNS and SYMPTOMS of COVID.
You truly think so? In that case the deniers should disproportionally die from Covid while "some" states and cities should do much better than others. The numbers tell a different story though and the correlation seems to be inverse.
 
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You truly think so? In that case the deniers should disproportionally die from Covid and "some" states and cities should do much better than others. The numbers tell a different story though and the correlation seems to be inverse.

deniers benefit from believers

facepalm.jpg
 

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