Social distancing - simulation

[RX8]

Interesting article on the effects of social distancing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[bbodb1]

I'll have you know I moved my keyboard 6 feet away from my screen! That's my contribution for the day....now excuse me while I return to my nap....previously in progress...

...but I did enjoy reading this article. It does pose some interesting questions and ideas to think about. The article seems to suggest extreme social distancing is the best approach to combating this virus - which makes me wonder why states are not being more aggressive in closing schools and as many functions as possible. The charts below show (over time) those who contract the virus in brown and those who recover in pink.

 

[GetawaysRus]

Thanks for posting. I had a general grasp of what they mean by "flattening the curve," but seeing the simulation makes it easier to understand.

 

[rboesl]

I'll have you know I moved my keyboard 6 feet away from my screen! That's my contribution for the day....now excuse me while I return to my nap....previously in progress...

...but I did enjoy reading this article. It does pose some interesting questions and ideas to think about. The article seems to suggest extreme social distancing is the best approach to combating this virus - which makes me wonder why states are not being more aggressive in closing schools and as many functions as possible. The charts below show (over time) those who contract the virus in brown and those who recover in pink.
View attachment 17913

Aggressively closing the schools has a trickle down effect. Parents then have to deal with children being at home. With our current economy a lot of parents both work or there are 1 parent families. Staying at home, telecommuting, may not be an option. So what are parents to do? Stay home and lose a day's wages? What if that parent is a healthcare worker? Do facilities now deal with a crisis understaffed?

Take the children to a friends home? This still creates a situation, albeit on a smaller scale, similar to having children in school. Plus, another situation to consider is there is a great number of children who receive their only hot or only meal of the day at school. How do these children get fed? Aggressively close schools is not a silver bullet. This is a VERY complex situation that needs complex solutions.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Very interesting article - from people whose job is modeling the spread of infectious diseases. It shows exactly the predicted effect of various social distancing efforts. WA officials, especially Governor Inslee, have been using this type of information. Elected officials actually making decisions based on input from knowledgeable experts. What a wonderful concept!!!

How big will the coronavirus outbreak get? This Bellevue scientist is figuring that out

Staff at Bellevue's Institute for Disease Modeling estimate that social distancing measures aimed at cutting the transmission rate in half could reduce the number of infections in the Seattle area in early April by a factor of five — from...

www.seattletimes.com

 

[bbodb1]

Aggressively closing the schools has a trickle down effect. Parents then have to deal with children being at home. With our current economy a lot of parents both work or there are 1 parent families. Staying at home, telecommuting, may not be an option. So what are parents to do? Stay home and lose a day's wages? What if that parent is a healthcare worker? Do facilities now deal with a crisis understaffed?

Take the children to a friends home? This still creates a situation, albeit on a smaller scale, similar to having children in school. Plus, another situation to consider is there is a great number of children who receive their only hot or only meal of the day at school. How do these children get fed? Aggressively close schools is not a silver bullet. This is a VERY complex situation that needs complex solutions.

I agree with your points here to this degree - closing schools is going to create some problems for parents and guardians to have to overcome. I absolutely understand that point.
However, the fewer (and smaller) social interactions resulting from school closings are exactly what is needed to slow the transmission rate of this virus.

Some schools are continuing to serve meals throughout this time (which also has the benefit of keeping the food services staff working) to serve those portions of their population that do qualify for Free or Reduced Meals. There appears to be funding support for this from the federal levels - which would help address part of your concerns.

Many businesses have been quick to take public stands in support of their workers who need time off to care for family or if they become sick. I acknowledge this is not every business and (most likely) NOT small businesses who may not have the resources to support their workers through times like these.

As someone who works in the public education sector, I can tell you that every day kids are in school an increasing number of germs are being spread. Closing schools is the same preventative measure level as shutting down public events where large numbers of people gather. Our kids may not be at risk as much as the elderly in terms of this virus, but they can sure spread it.

We need the schools closed to help stop the spread of this virus because this is most effective way to help achieve the highest possible level of social distancing.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Schools and day care centers are among the biggest sources of infectious disease transmission. One sick child comes in, and entire classroom becomes infected. And the children bring it home and soon the entire family is exposed. Happens all the time with colds, flu, measles, etc.

Yes it creates very big difficulties, but closing those facilities is simply one of the most effective things that can be done to slow down the spread o af disease that is transmitted via aerosols and direct contact. The only reason that isn't done immediately is because of the practical problems it creates.

But if we want to be serious about slowing down the spread of a transmissible disease, we need to eliminate the primary transmission avenues.