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"Skewed" Italian Covid-19 Deaths Report?
- Thread starter CO skier
- Start date
Miss Marty
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April 10, 2020
Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?
For information - Google - italy death toll coronavirus
Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?
For information - Google - italy death toll coronavirus
Last edited:
Statistics statistics. need to compare apples to apples. If New York State had the same population as Italy, ie about 3 times it's 20 million, they would have 19,200 deaths with todays death rate. Italy today has had 18,849 deaths. Also Italy's death rate is growing at a slower rate than the US. I'm not sure Dr. Birx is looking at statistics like this. My source for coronavirus information is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, my source for the NY State number is https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
March 15 the US had some 1661 cases and 41 deaths. March 23 35,000 cases 471 deaths, April 1 239,279 and 5443. Today 488,755 cases and 17.995 deaths.
As we were told in the early days, those with underlying conditions were more likely to die if they get the virus. But younger and young people are dying as well.
Worldwide, there have been 476,414 closed cases of which 369,964 are considered recovered and 100,450 deaths. So 79% of closed cases live, 21%die.
Those aren't great odds.
It's often pointed out by those who want to downplay the extreme measures taken to slow and hopefully stop Covid 19 that seasonal flu is deadly and kills 10's of thousands each year in the US. Based on that they want to relax restrictions. That is dangerous for several reasons. There are flu shots that have varied success against the flu, it's just that many people won't get them. Also the mortality rate among those who get the flu is extremely low. The mortality rate for Covid 19 is extremely high.
For example the death rate for 65+ with the flu it's .83% and with covid 19 it's 14.8%. I don't like those odds either.
March 15 the US had some 1661 cases and 41 deaths. March 23 35,000 cases 471 deaths, April 1 239,279 and 5443. Today 488,755 cases and 17.995 deaths.
As we were told in the early days, those with underlying conditions were more likely to die if they get the virus. But younger and young people are dying as well.
Worldwide, there have been 476,414 closed cases of which 369,964 are considered recovered and 100,450 deaths. So 79% of closed cases live, 21%die.
Those aren't great odds.
It's often pointed out by those who want to downplay the extreme measures taken to slow and hopefully stop Covid 19 that seasonal flu is deadly and kills 10's of thousands each year in the US. Based on that they want to relax restrictions. That is dangerous for several reasons. There are flu shots that have varied success against the flu, it's just that many people won't get them. Also the mortality rate among those who get the flu is extremely low. The mortality rate for Covid 19 is extremely high.
For example the death rate for 65+ with the flu it's .83% and with covid 19 it's 14.8%. I don't like those odds either.
Tia
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Older Age, Need for Ventilators Among Similar Traits of Italians with COVID-19
The majority of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU in Lombardy, Italy with COVID-19 were older men and required mechanical ventilation.
From an article published April 3rd. It summarizes why it would be a mistake to compare the raw numbers for New York State to Italy, for example:
www.newscientist.com
"The differences between countries are also partly to do with how many older people have been infected, says Melinda Mills at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science in the UK. In South Korea and Germany, the first people to be infected were mostly younger.
Based on what is happening in Italy, Mills and her colleagues calculate that if 10 per cent of people become infected, there would be 302,530 deaths in Italy, with its ageing population of 61 million, but 142,058 deaths in Nigeria, with its much younger population of 191 million."
Why we still don't know what the death rate is for covid-19
Despite data pouring in from many countries, estimates of how many of those infected with covid-19 die still vary widely
"The differences between countries are also partly to do with how many older people have been infected, says Melinda Mills at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science in the UK. In South Korea and Germany, the first people to be infected were mostly younger.
Based on what is happening in Italy, Mills and her colleagues calculate that if 10 per cent of people become infected, there would be 302,530 deaths in Italy, with its ageing population of 61 million, but 142,058 deaths in Nigeria, with its much younger population of 191 million."