Shouldn't epidemiologists revisit the case of Sweden? Hasn't their approach actually worked?

[DeniseM]

Thanks, Brett! I was wondering what it was!

 

[TravelTime]

But what about New Zealand .... are they better than Arizona and/or Sweden ?

View attachment 24827

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...tbreak-following-weeks-of-no-cases-2020-08-11

This is shocking. Last thing I read was New Zealand had no Covid cases and was being held out as a model country. I guess this shows no countries should celebrate too soon and no countries should criticize others.

 

[Conan]

Sweden and TUG. Can’t see one without thinking of the other.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294243540059529218

 

[TravelTime]

Sweden and TUG. Can’t see one without thinking of the other.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294243540059529218

While he is very distinguished, Paul Krugman is a politically-biased economist. I read his column in NYT periodically and he has some pretty far left opinions.

 

[DannyTS]

While he is very distinguished, Paul Krugman is a politically-biased economist. I read his column in NYT periodically and he has some pretty far left opinions.

I think he has also been wrong more than any other economist. Those that followed his advise (hopefully nobody) would have lost a lot of money in the stock market.

 

[DannyTS]

Did Sweden Accidentally Blunder into COVID-19 Herd Immunity?

Did Sweden Accidentally Blunder into COVID-19 Herd Immunity?

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Swedish government's chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, denied that his relatively permissive approach...

reason.com

 

[DannyTS]

@Conan this study is looking at the factors that contributed to the number of deaths in Sweden and concluded it has little to do with the lack of a lockdown. By the way, isn't Paul Krugman a New Yorker? Why does he not compare Sweden to New York?

16 Possible Factors for Sweden’s High COVID Death Rate among the Nordics

What accounts for Sweden’s high COVID death rate among the Nordics? One factor could be Sweden’s lighter lockdown. But we suggest 15 other possible factors. Mos

papers.ssrn.com

 

[Brett]

the idea of "folkvett" -- common sense of the people has failed

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08/13/Free-spread-of-COVID-19-in-Sweden-didnt-lead-to-herd-immunity/5131597335593

 

[Monykalyn]

@Conan this study is looking at the factors that contributed to the number of deaths in Sweden and concluded it has little to do with the lack of a lockdown. By the way, isn't Paul Krugman a New Yorker? Why does he not compare Sweden to New York?

16 Possible Factors for Sweden’s High COVID Death Rate among the Nordics

What accounts for Sweden’s high COVID death rate among the Nordics? One factor could be Sweden’s lighter lockdown. But we suggest 15 other possible factors. Mos

papers.ssrn.com

Isn’t the the largest percentage of cases with deaths in USA occur among nursing homes? I’d look myself but on my iPad (traveling to drop a kid off at college 1000 miles from home). My anecdotal experience is no matter how careful the staff, or how frequent the testing or even when you have enough PPE (and they have way more now than they did in April) covid will eventually strike. Of the 4 long term care homes I work with, 3 have outbreaks. One is winding down on the LTC side but now is over in assisted living side. 2 others are at the beginning, with majority of cases in the memory care unit, and have had 9 deaths past 2 weeks. The other doesn’t have a locked unit and most of the cases are mild or asymptomatic. Staff at all these places don’t have time, money or energy to go out much -if at all- on their “off” days. The majority of deaths in all places are people who were already on hospice as well.
Hospice doesn’t mean not treat but to make choices for comfort and quality of life vs quantity. I despise the assumption that “choosing to not treat” (like Sweden supposedly) means the patient had no choice in the matter. Perhaps Sweden is much better at managing end of life care than USA. The amount of people who think hospice means the person is left to rot in pain is appalling. Or that “choosing not to treat” means no comfort measures provided.

 

[DannyTS]

the idea of "folkvett" -- common sense of the people has failed

View attachment 24917
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08/13/Free-spread-of-COVID-19-in-Sweden-didnt-lead-to-herd-immunity/5131597335593

maybe you (or UPI) can explain why the graph looks like this if Sweden did not reach heard immunity. No lockdown, no mandatory masks, bars and restaurants open, schools open.

deaths per day

 

[DannyTS]

Isn’t the the largest percentage of cases with deaths in USA occur among nursing homes? I’d look myself but on my iPad (traveling to drop a kid off at college 1000 miles from home). My anecdotal experience is no matter how careful the staff, or how frequent the testing or even when you have enough PPE (and they have way more now than they did in April) covid will eventually strike. Of the 4 long term care homes I work with, 3 have outbreaks. One is winding down on the LTC side but now is over in assisted living side. 2 others are at the beginning, with majority of cases in the memory care unit, and have had 9 deaths past 2 weeks. The other doesn’t have a locked unit and most of the cases are mild or asymptomatic. Staff at all these places don’t have time, money or energy to go out much -if at all- on their “off” days. The majority of deaths in all places are people who were already on hospice as well.
Hospice doesn’t mean not treat but to make choices for comfort and quality of life vs quantity. I despise the assumption that “choosing to not treat” (like Sweden supposedly) means the patient had no choice in the matter. Perhaps Sweden is much better at managing end of life care than USA. The amount of people who think hospice means the person is left to rot in pain is appalling. Or that “choosing not to treat” means no comfort measures provided.

I think the same in Sweden and 70% of those who died were +80, 90% were +70

 

[Conan]

My apologies for triggering another deluge - - seven posts from three people in two hours.

 

[DannyTS]

My apologies for triggering another deluge - - seven posts from three people in two hours.

Apologies accepted

 

[Brett]

https://www.thelocal.se/20200716/the-fast-track-to-your-first-swedish-job-internship-sweden-jobbspranget-tlccu

 

[DannyTS]

View attachment 24923

https://www.thelocal.se/20200716/the-fast-track-to-your-first-swedish-job-internship-sweden-jobbspranget-tlccu

View attachment 24924

It continues to amaze me that these researchers still ignore that Sweden started from a lot more cases, nothing to do with the lockdown. Please refer to post #231 for details.

 

[jabberwocky]

Nordic Children return to school despite rising virus rates.

This may be behind a paywall

https://on.ft.com/3iGryar

“Despite a jump in coronavirus cases among children and young adults, Nordic countries are in increasing agreement on two things: that children should be prioritised over all other age groups; and that they do not appear to spread the virus in a significant way.”

 

[davidvel]

Hospice doesn’t mean not treat but to make choices for comfort and quality of life vs quantity. I despise the assumption that “choosing to not treat” (like Sweden supposedly) means the patient had no choice in the matter. Perhaps Sweden is much better at managing end of life care than USA. The amount of people who think hospice means the person is left to rot in pain is appalling. Or that “choosing not to treat” means no comfort measures provided.

Well, sort of. The patient is choosing not to treat their ongoing condition. Once you transfer to hospice care, medicare no longer pays for treatment of your terminal illness:

Medicare won't cover any of these once your hospice benefit starts:

• Treatment intended to cure your terminal illness and/or related conditions. Talk with your doctor if you're thinking about getting treatment to cure your illness. As a hospice patient, you always have the right to stop hospice care at any time.
• Prescription drugs to cure your illness (rather than for symptom control or pain relief).
• Care you get as a hospital outpatient (like in an emergency room), care you get as a hospital inpatient, or ambulance transportation, unless it's either arranged by your hospice team or is unrelated to your terminal illness and related conditions.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%. so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19. They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go. Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%. So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask. Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling. Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.

 

[TravelTime]

The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%. so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19. They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go. Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%. So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask. Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling. Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.

Have you factored in that 40% to 60% of the population may already have some immunity?

 

[DannyTS]

The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%. so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19. They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go. Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%. So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask. Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling. Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.

Can you provide a link for that study? It is the first time I hear 90%.

 

[davidvel]

The accepted percentage of a population that needs to either contract the flu, measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc, per Johns Hopkins is between 70-90%. so in the US between 233 and 297 million people have to be vacinated or infected for herd immunity for COVID19. They don't know if that will apply to Covid, but since there is no vaccine at this point we have a long way to go. Currently the death rate in the US for closed cases, either death or recovery is 6%. So we would have between 1.4 and 1.8 million deaths.
Maybe we ought to consider wearing a mask. Of course the numbers might not turn out that way, but I'm not comfortable gambling. Figures in my post come from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers.com.

6% may be the death rate per positive test, but the death rate per infection is certainly far less, probably more than 10x less.

 

[jabberwocky]

6% may be the death rate per positive test, but the death rate per infection is certainly far less, probably more than 10x less.

And keep in mind that was 6% of closed cases (which includes only deaths or marked recoveries). Some jurisdictions are not reporting recoveries - Florida being one - so these would not count as a closed case. As a result the 6% figure is grossly inflated by underestimating the denominator.

My best guess is that when thing settle down and have better population estimates we will find the actual death rate is below 1%. The caveat is this death rate percentage is highly age dependent and is higher for those who are older and minuscule for those under age 20.

 

[Monykalyn]

And keep in mind that was 6% of closed cases (which includes only deaths or marked recoveries). Some jurisdictions are not reporting recoveries - Florida being one - so these would not count as a closed case. As a result the 6% figure is grossly inflated by underestimating the denominator.

My best guess is that when thing settle down and have better population estimates we will find the actual death rate is below 1%. The caveat is this death rate percentage is highly age dependent and is higher for those who are older and minuscule for those under age 20.

I like this site-can play around with it and see lots of data

Mortality Risk of COVID-19

Our interactive data visualizations that show the case fatality rate in each country are updated daily.

ourworldindata.org

case fatality rate in US has dropped.

 

[jabberwocky]

I like this site-can play around with it and see lots of data

Mortality Risk of COVID-19

Our interactive data visualizations that show the case fatality rate in each country are updated daily.

ourworldindata.org

case fatality rate in US has dropped.

That’s a great site. Thanks for sharing!

I was a little disturbed at how poorly Canada does by this metric. Even though we aren’t Sweden - here is the one from our local provincial authority (Alberta). We have one of the most rigorous testing regimes globally. With a population of only 4 million, they’ve managed to run over 800,000 tests involving over 650,000 individuals. Because of the high degree of testing, it’s likely that we are identifying a larger proportion of asymptotic cases.

As of this past Friday, just over 12,000 people have tested positive since March. Out of that 1938 were older than 60 and 10,115 are under age 60.

For those over age 60 there have been 216 deaths. This gives a fatality ratio of over 11%. This may seem high, but a large proportion of these deaths are in nursing homes (around 80% of Canadian covid deaths are nursing home related - but that is a different topic). The deaths are also “lumpy” - One nursing home facility has accounted for 29 of the deaths and an outbreak at a local hospital resulted in 11 further deaths of people already hospitalized.

For those under age 60, the picture is much rosier. There have been just 5 deaths for those under age 60 (none under age 20). This represents a fatality rate of just 0.049% (yes, the decimal is in the right place!)

I don’t mean to diminish the seriousness of the disease and I realize it’s very personal for some people, including myself (my 93 year-old grandfather is currently in a facility where they declared an outbreak on August 3). The fact is that for younger people, the likelihood of a fatal outcome is very small.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm

 

[DannyTS]

History to 'vindicate Swedish COVID-19 strategy'