Should I stay (as is) or sell?

[glypnirsgirl]

Right now, Ian and I own 230 OKW points and 200 SSR points. We almost always use all of our points for OKW. I owned the 230 OKW points pre-marriage. We bought additional points because when we married, Ian brought two kids into the relationship - we wanted everyone to be able to go to WDW together.

For this year's trip, I was able to trade into both a one bedroom and a two bedroom using 2 years worth of RCI TPUs --- at the 32/36 TPU point. Without trading, I could have done this trip using all DVC points. It would have used all of the points that we currently have for 2 years (banked and current) plus some that would have to be borrowed.

Even with the cancellations that we had for this trip, it did not turn out badly for us. I had a small amount of point breakage on the OKW account. I rented out the rest of the cancelled points and recouped our maintenance fees plus some (less points that I rented from another TUGGER when my parents decided to join us BEFORE the cancellation).

I like what we have. We have enough points to be sure that we can do the big family trip without depending on being able to trade. And if we trade, we can rent out the "extra" points.

We actually make a decent profit when we rent the points out (not considering the sunk costs). Still, it would take us more than 12 years before we would have made as much as we could make just by selling. I think that it makes sense to sell. I have run the numbers.

And, I still don't want to.

elaine

 

[presley]

Don't sell until you want to.

 

[slum808]

Don't sell until you want to.

I think this is the key right here. If you don't want to, don't. Renting a ts with rare exception, will never get you ahead of the purchase or sell price. Its not an financial investment, but it is an investment in future vacations. If you want to continue to vist WDW on a regular basis, I would hold on the your points.

You may be able to get what you need in RCI right now, but I don't think it will be that way going forward. There are many factors that play into RCI availability and I believe they may start to change. DVC had in the past a lot of developer inventory, both from unsold intrest in SSR, BLT, AKV and from forclosures. BLT and SSR are now sold out and AKV will probablly sell out next year maybe year after. If DVC is smart, they'll develop more small boutique resorts which; sell for more per point, drive demand, and reduce developer holdings. If they do this the majority of RCI deposits will dry up.

The other x factor is RCI tpu cost. We've already seen large rise in TPU cost for prime months. Even with the higher cost, they were all booked up relatively quickly. If I were RCI, I'd continue to raise the cost untill I see a unit go unbooked. What that level would be is anyone guess, but 100 TPU would not surprise me. Sure that sounds insane, but 100 TPU x $15/TPU ($600mf/40 TPU for a decent but not great trader) = $1500 for a 2-bedroom DVC unit that would rent for $3000-$3500. DVC point rentals are on the rise so this will only help RCI raise TPU levels.

So if I were in your shoes, I would ride the RCI wave as long as it last. Rent out my points to cover cost of DVC points and hopefully your other TPU. Having the points will provide peace of mind in case RCI ever dries up.

Just my opinion, which of course could be way off base.

 

[stanleyu]

One of the saddest days of my life was when I sold our 200 points in Boardwalk. Give it a lot of thought before you make your move.

 

[glypnirsgirl]

Don't sell until you want to.

I am normally a rational person. It is disturbing to me to do something that does not seem logical. Which is why I asked. Thanks for reassuring me that it is okay to be emotional about this.

elaine

 

[glypnirsgirl]

I think this is the key right here. If you don't want to, don't.

You may be able to get what you need in RCI right now, but I don't think it will be that way going forward. There are many factors that play into RCI availability and I believe they may start to change. DVC had in the past a lot of developer inventory, both from unsold intrest in SSR, BLT, AKV and from forclosures. BLT and SSR are now sold out and AKV will probablly sell out next year maybe year after. If DVC is smart, they'll develop more small boutique resorts which; sell for more per point, drive demand, and reduce developer holdings. If they do this the majority of RCI deposits will dry up.
....

So if I were in your shoes, I would ride the RCI wave as long as it last. Rent out my points to cover cost of DVC points and hopefully your other TPU. Having the points will provide peace of mind in case RCI ever dries up.

Just my opinion, which of course could be way off base.

This is exactly my concern. I am afraid that the demand for WDW is down in general due to the economy and then add in all of the timeshares that they were selling at the same time and the result is excess inventory.

Which has led to that availabliity in RCI. And it appears to me that the availability is getting scarcer and more expensive.

I think that Ian thinks that the RCI availability will always be there. We love OKW and that (and SSR) appears to have the most availability. I remember a time when people were getting up at 2 am to book a DVC resort because they had heard rumors that a deposit was coming. So, I don't share his belief that this availability will continue.

 

[glypnirsgirl]

One of the saddest days of my life was when I sold our 200 points in Boardwalk. Give it a lot of thought before you make your move.

I understand!!! I am sure that I would suffer from extreme seller's remorse.

I think that part of it has to do with where we see our future going. Our kids are grown, the oldest is married and they have expressed a desire to have children soon. The next dates alot and has been engaged 3 times ... I am sure that one of these days she will make it to the altar. She wants children as well. (The youngest lives at home and hasn't had a date in 5 years!)

I THINK that sometime in the next few years, we will have grandchildren to enjoy taking to WDW.

Ian envisions us going camping and to exotic locales - just the two of us. My joy of big family vacations just does not appeal to him. He simply tolerates them.

 

[heathpack]

This is exactly my concern. I am afraid that the demand for WDW is down in general due to the economy and then add in all of the timeshares that they were selling at the same time and the result is excess inventory.

Which has led to that availabliity in RCI. And it appears to me that the availability is getting scarcer and more expensive.

I think that Ian thinks that the RCI availability will always be there. We love OKW and that (and SSR) appears to have the most availability. I remember a time when people were getting up at 2 am to book a DVC resort because they had heard rumors that a deposit was coming. So, I don't share his belief that this availability will continue.

I totally agree with this. To me, some of the fundamentals of timesharing are fatally flawed (ie systems where every interval owner pays the same MF regardless of season), but the absolute biggest reason TS prices are down and exchanges are easier is the E-C-O-N-O-M-Y. When people feel better about spending on travel, I predict some of these sweet exchanges will be harder to come by, getaway/last call prices will rise, bonus weeks will be harder to come by and <gasp> resale prices on really desirable timeshares will actually rise in some instances. It may take a few years, but it will happen I predict.

So don't sell your DVC just because RCI DVC weeks are "cheap" right now. Especially if you can rent your points with minimal effort to offset MF. The RCI free lunch will not last forever.

H

 

[spencersmama]

Ian envisions us going camping and to exotic locales - just the two of us. My joy of big family vacations just does not appeal to him. He simply tolerates them.

Maybe he will enjoy family vacations more once he has a few one on one vacation time with you. And, when grandkids are added to the family, they have a way of warming their grandpas' hearts.

 

[icydog]

I sold all of my 1575 points in 2010 only to buy back 500 Disney's Beach Club Villas points in 2011. I forgot about the new kids, three younger grandkids, who didn't have a chance to enjoy my membership.

Luckily there is still a resale market for DVC. That's not true with other timeshares. You could sell now if you wanted to--- but why??? I say hold onto them and plan more vacations... Remember RCI is not altruistic.... They know they are being scammed by renters of exchange weeks on Tug Market Place and REDWEEK. How long do you think they'll allow that?

 

[MaryH]

Another option is to sell one of your contract and keep one. This way you are sure you would have something in DVC if needed but can rent additional points or play RCI roulette for additional time.

 

[icydog]

Another option is to sell one of your contract and keep one. This way you are sure you would have something in DVC if needed but can rent additional points or play RCI roulette for additional time.

Mary has an excellent idea. One of the things I lost by selling everything was the ability to go on the member cruise. If you keep one contract you'll be able to keep those kinds of perks

 

[Jay_G]

I am normally a rational person. It is disturbing to me to do something that does not seem logical. Which is why I asked. Thanks for reassuring me that it is okay to be emotional about this.

elaine

One thing that Disney does especially with DVC is sell "Magic". Think about other TS sales pitches you get? They all use fuzzy math to convince you that this is a good financial decision. "Look you are already spending X dollars each year on hotels and gas, and food etc. But if you buy now think of how much $ you will save?" (wait if I buy your Timeshare I won't need food? Does not compute?) But they are almost always presented in financial terms.

Disney DVC is all about Owning a piece of the magic! It's a badge of honor for cetain Disney fans. It's like saying "I'm such a fan that I actually bought a piece of WDW." Think about the way they say "welcome home". Does Hilton do that?

As kids many of us dreamed about LIVING in WDW. We didn't think about endless crowds and hot summers, bugs, gators etc. Now Disney is apealing to that kid in you saying you can "Live in WDW, just like you always wanted... just sign on this line."

A lot of DVC owners don't even use the word timeshare, sometimes they say stuff like "It's kind-of like a timeshare". By kind-of they mean exactly.

So I can see why selling DVC is as emotional as buying into it. It it's designed to feel like a simple real estate transaction, it's meant to feel like you are making your life more magical.

 

[Jay_G]

I sold all of my 1575 points in 2010

1575 Points, WOW that's a LOT of money. You could spend 5 months in an Old Key West sudio!!!!

Was that all one contract? How did you find a buyer for that many points?

 

[okw1]

You should try taking your husband to Hilton Head or Vero....maybe he is burned out on WDW. Points are selling so low now that it wouldn't take any time at all for you to use the proceeds from selling on future vacations and then the money is gone.

 

[MaryH]

Or maybe use your DVC for things that would not yet trade in RCI like Aulani and trade into Orlando WDW via RCI.

 

[Purseval]

Remember RCI is not altruistic.... They know they are being scammed by renters of exchange weeks on Tug Market Place and REDWEEK. How long do you think they'll allow that?

Care to elaborate? Are you saying people are exchanging into WDW then renting the exchange they get for a profit? I suppose that's possible but how many people would actually go through that kind of trouble vs how many people actually want to (really) exchange in? Enough to make RCI stop exchanging or DVC stop doing business with RCI?

 

[timeos2]

For an opposing view. We sold our DVC after about 5 years and have been happier ever since. The price we got has only gone down since ( and as the remaining years of RTU shrink so will resale values as fees go up). We found we tired of Disney as the family aged & tastes changed. We spend far less now for trips we enjoy much more than the limited Disney choices. Get out while your ownership still has a reasonable value. You won't be likely to regret it long term.

 

[slum808]

Care to elaborate? Are you saying people are exchanging into WDW then renting the exchange they get for a profit? I suppose that's possible but how many people would actually go through that kind of trouble vs how many people actually want to (really) exchange in? Enough to make RCI stop exchanging or DVC stop doing business with RCI?

You can sometimes find a ton of DVC rentals on ebay that are exchanges. Everytime RCI does a bulk load you'll find them on Ebay. Many are from PCC that use points paid by unknowing owners who think these guys are selling their TS. About a half a year ago mouseowners.com was flooded with RCI rentals and they finally kicked them all off. Now point rentals have started to creap higher.

 

[Purseval]

You can sometimes find a ton of DVC rentals on ebay that are exchanges. Everytime RCI does a bulk load you'll find them on Ebay.

Sounds like a pretty risky business plan. Buy a timeshare so you can hope to get a DVC exchange to sell at a profit?

There have aways been people looking to game the system. I remember people giving DVC members sob stories so they could get them to rent to them at $3-4 dollars a point then they turn around and rerent it for $10-12. But dirtbags like that are the exception. IMHO the overwhelming majority of people trying to get a DVC exchange do it because they want to vacation inside the park and abuse certainly doesn't rise to the level that would even get RCI's attention. But who knows for sure?

 

[glypnirsgirl]

I talked to Ian more about this. He said that he doesn't think that all decisions have to be made on a logical basis and it is okay for me to make decisions on an emotional basis.

So, for right now, we are on hold and are going to evaluate again every 6 months.

Thanks for your help! He was interested in everyone's viewpoint.

elaine

 

[MaryH]

I think it is a decent approach to do what it right for you, either logical or emotional. I went to Paris for a 3 days weekend and London a few times for short weekends and some friends thought I was crazy. But it cost me almost as much to fly to California and these short jaunts allow me to keep in touch with some friends.