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Rumor is the 4th quarter/2019 investment report is coming out tomorrow (Feb 26)

dayooper

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I'm curious on what its going to say, how much time will be spent on each topic and how they are going to dance around the takeover rumors. I also love to hear their plans for building new resorts.
 

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Given the delays in opening 2020 projected sales and bookings for Maui, NYC and Cabo, IMO management has been distracted. or the 3rd party property owners are delaying because of takeover uncertainty. Of course if they announce such properties soon, this (hopefully) debunks my theory.
 
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Last quarter they said they can't comment on the takeover. Unless they are ready to announce a deal or rejection of all potential buyers, I expect similar "no further comment".

As for the new resorts, sometimes they discuss these in length, and other quarters they offer nothing new.

In any event, i will definitely read the transcript / listen to the call.
 

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For the Maui property, if I had to guess (and I have no data, so I guess I do have to guess :)) delays may be the result of actions by local folks. We already know (from other threads) that this had become a big deal with a fair bit of vocal opposition. Again, just a guess based on other things I've read here.

Cheers.
 

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I just checked the HGVC investors page, and the earnings call is Thursday Feb 27. Dont remember if HGV typically releases the results the day before after market close. Many companies do, but there is a better chance any discussion of new resorts and potential buyout will happen in the Q&A portion of the call.
 

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Anyone taking bets over/under on the number of times “coronavirus” gets mentioned?
 

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A few bullets from the 4th Quarter Earnings Conference call:
  • They specifically said they would not comment on rumors and speculation, obviously referring to the merger speculation.
  • Adjusted revenue was up 3% for the fourth quarter; total 2019 revenue was flat. Said they responded well in 4Q to a tough year. Expect 2020 to be better and returning to close to double-digit growth by 2021 as new inventory comes online.
  • Now 325,000 members.
  • Re-stocking their inventory, which has been at historically low levels.
  • Received approval to begin sales for The Quin and Ocean Tower Phase 2
  • Expect to receive approval and begin off-site sales for Maui and Cabo in first half of 2020 (but will not be opening on site in 2020), and the new Waikiki location in second half of 2020 for off-site sales.
  • Have seen some disruption to their tour flow in Japan due to coronavirus news reports, but very few cancellations. 20% of sales come from Japan - half of that from sales centers in Japan and half from Japanese visitors to Hawaii.
  • During the Q&A, Mark Wang said they were evaluating new product forms, including a "mid-tier" product to broaden their market. They said this new mid-tier product would likely be structured in a trust format and would be developed in conjunction with a development partner. My comment: Sounds like their intent is to keep HGVC as a site-based, deeded weeks model, but build a new "mid-tier" trust product, which I interpret as something targeted at a slightly lower demographic than HGVC.
 

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Great summary. I had a chance to listen as well. Would add:

* Under 2020 initiatives they said they are adding cash and points package capability but didn't specify details.

They were questioned quite a bit about the impact of coronavirus. They had a good response in that the MF cycle is separate from the visit and they could potentially allow guests to postpone their visits to a later date if needed while not disrupting cash flow.
 
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Great summary. I had a chance to listen as well. Would add:

* Under 2020 initiatives they said they are adding cash and points package capability but didn't specify details.

This was something that I had found out from customer service and would seem to be the reservation system changes that some were invited to evaluate. So, it would seem that this is already in prototype.

Cheers.
 

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HGV stock dipped to about $26 but now is close to $30 after the call.
 

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They had a good response in that the MF cycle is separate from the visit and they could potentially allow guests to postpone their visits to a later date if needed while not disrupting cash flow.
I was thinking the same thing.
 

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HGV stock dipped to about $26 but now is close to $30 after the call.

There is a lot of volatility lately, particularly with travel stocks. Hard to tell how much of the fluctuation is market related for specifc to their earnings.

I used to own HGV stock, but sold sometime in 2018.
 

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Expect to receive approval and begin off-site sales for Maui and Cabo

Interesting that they are "finally" moving ahead with both of these. I understand delays in Maui but I don't with Cabo. I was really expecting Cabo to be "open" by now since it is already an existing property.

Mark Wang said they were evaluating new product forms, including a "mid-tier" product to broaden their market.
Interesting also, I am not sure I understand what we are talking about.
 

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Interesting also, I am not sure I understand what we are talking about.

I'm just reading between the lines, but the way I interpret a "mid-tier" product is a new branding under the HGV umbrella. He said it would likely be trust based and they would be working with an individual development partner to develop this new product. So, it sound like new locations under a different brand. Could it be something they could call "Hampton Vacation Club" or some other brand - i.e. - a lower-priced trust product with locations aimed at a mid-tier demographic versus the higher tier demographic of HGVC? Who knows? Time will tell, but that is the way I heard that. Maybe once they've posted the call transcript online, I will find the exact quote and post that.
 

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Interesting that they are "finally" moving ahead with both of these. I understand delays in Maui but I don't with Cabo. I was really expecting Cabo to be "open" by now since it is already an existing property.


Interesting also, I am not sure I understand what we are talking about.
We stopped by the new Cabo retrofit in November and construction activity was very active at the time. We talked to the front desk and could not get in to see a unit, but you could see they were on a mission. I don't really like the location which is well away from any other activities or amenities. The Hilton Hotel they are converting to timeshares is classy, but it is very sleepy there. But in any event it is not at all surprising to me that they are ready to start with sales.
 

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I'm just reading between the lines, but the way I interpret a "mid-tier" product is a new branding under the HGV umbrella. He said it would likely be trust based and they would be working with an individual development partner to develop this new product. So, it sound like new locations under a different brand. Could it be something they could call "Hampton Vacation Club" or some other brand - i.e. - a lower-priced trust product with locations aimed at a mid-tier demographic versus the higher tier demographic of HGVC? Who knows? Time will tell, but that is the way I heard that. Maybe once they've posted the call transcript online, I will find the exact quote and post that.

Hampton Vacation Club went through my mind as I read this as well.
 

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A few bullets from the 4th Quarter Earnings Conference call:
Under 2020 initiatives they said they are adding cash and points package capability but didn't specify details.

Excellent summary. I just read through the transcript of the call and was very glad that I had the "cliffnotes" beforehand.
 

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I don’t think they would use Hampton for a few reasons, primarily, they would need to license it. They could call it “Urban Experiences” or something generic.
 

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I don’t think they would use Hampton for a few reasons, primarily, they would need to license it. They could call it “Urban Experiences” or something generic.

That's what Marriott did back in the 2000's when they tried to create a mid-tier product - they called it Horizon by Marriott. It failed to catch on. They developed one location in Orlando and one in Branson, and had plans for additional locations - Myrtle Beach and Gatlinburg come to mind I believe. The square footage, furnishings, and amenities were a notch or so below mainline Marriott, but the prices weren't all that much cheaper so the concept never took off. They never built the other locations and converted the two they did build to Marriott Vacation Club.

While adapting a Hilton brand like Hampton, Doubletree, or Embassy would likely change their licensing arrangement with Hilton Hotels as you suggest, it might be worth it to help build a recognizable market positioning and perception. But all that might depend on what happens with the Apollo discussions - the mid-tier brand might become Diamond.
 

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They could call it “Urban Experiences” or something generic.

I think that's about what they call the "resort fee" for city locations like Midtown Manhattan. Something like "Urban Experience Fee."

Cheers.
 

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That's what Marriott did back in the 2000's when they tried to create a mid-tier product - they called it Horizon by Marriott. It failed to catch on. They developed one location in Orlando and one in Branson, and had plans for additional locations - Myrtle Beach and Gatlinburg come to mind I believe. The square footage, furnishings, and amenities were a notch or so below mainline Marriott, but the prices weren't all that much cheaper so the concept never took off. They never built the other locations and converted the two they did build to Marriott Vacation Club.

While adapting a Hilton brand like Hampton, Doubletree, or Embassy would likely change their licensing arrangement with Hilton Hotels as you suggest, it might be worth it to help build a recognizable market positioning and perception. But all that might depend on what happens with the Apollo discussions - the mid-tier brand might become Diamond.

Or Diamond might become the mid-tier Hampton/Embassy/Doubletree. If takeover/merger were to happen, I think that's the most likely scenario.
 

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I wonder how many travel companies are going to have the courage to make any major financial moves with the recent upheaval in the stock market and the potential for a pandemic of the COVID-19 to severely disrupt the world economy and consumer willingness to travel?
 
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