Please don't buy into the idea this is a buying opporunity

[ondeadlin]

There are multiple threads on TUG right now where a minority of people - including some who make money selling timeshares! what a surprise - are putting forward the idea that the current decline (collapse?) in timeshare prices is a buying opportunity.

That you can benefit when Marriott prices "come back", and they'll have to come back because of what Marriott charges as a developer.

Here's the reality: A. We don't know if this is anywhere close to the bottom; and B. There is no guarantee prices will ever come back, and past history suggests they won't; C. Fees could significantly jump because of delinquencies.

Just because the developer charges high prices does not mean prices will come back. Want proof? Look at the developer prices for resales in Orlando before this collapse and compare those prices to resales in Orlando. There's a gap of as much as $20,000 for some weeks at the sold out resorts. Ditto for ski weeks in Vail and Breckenridge.

Why the gap? I don't know why. Because they're older properties? Because they're not marketed aggressively? Who knows, but the gap exists.

I've been timesharing for almost 10 years now. I've never seen prices rise after they fell. I think it's irresponsible to suggest they will now, especially when so many people come here to get educated about timesharing and see purchase advice.

 

[timeos2]

Listen to the man. Good advice and its free!

Here's the reality: A. We don't know if this is anywhere close to the bottom; and B. There is no guarantee prices will ever come back, and past history suggests they won't; C. Fees could significantly jump because of delinquencies.

AMEN! Unless you have money to burn - seems very unlikely at present - buying now for anything but planned personal use is an extremely risky move. No denying that should things turn around relatively soon you may get a great deal today or tomorrow and have it appreciate in a year or two. But far more likely is you won't be able to give away what you pay for now as those pesky fees go up. And up. And even the big developers get pounded worse and worse.

I think it is a voice of reason to say stay out of the game if making money in the future is your goal. Far too many questions on just where everything - not just timeshares - are headed to make an informed decision. Might you wait too long and miss out on a deal? Sure. But you are far more likely to look back and say "Wow - I though that resort was a real steal. Now it's less than half the price"

For those willing to risk their money - good luck. But remember what you see posted here or anywhere else may or may not be what the poster is actually doing. Talk is cheap. Real money spends easy and is hard to get back. Resale timeshare traditionally is a good value for use and a terrible investment as an income scheme. Those who have lost money far exceed the few that have made a buck or two.

 

[thinze3]

Let's say you have been wanting to buy a Marriott Ko Olina EOY but you couldn't afford the $26K retail or even the $12-14K resale price of last year. Do you think that it is a good time to buy now - at $4750?

I vote yes!


Terry

 

[ondeadlin]

Terry,

Under those circumstances I don't necessarily disagree with you - as long as you're not buying thinking it's going to be worth more down the road, and are willing to accept it might very well be worth less in a year.

 

[timeos2]

A good resort at a good price to use is always a deal.

Let's say you have been wanting to buy a Marriott Ko Olina EOY but you couldn't afford the $26K retail or even the $12-14K resale price of last year. Do you think that it is a good time to buy now - at $4750?

I vote yes!


Terry

To USE - absolutely! But wait another month and you'll most likely save more. Another two and pay even less. We don't know the where the bottom is. The ones to worry about are those that think that week will recover to its former level. Not likely (but remotely possible. Feeling lucky?). So buy to use and you have a much better deal than last year. Buy to resell and you may end up losing more than the retail buyers. The possible value is in the use and not likely to be in a resale.

 

[Dave M]

You might be right, but you might also be wrong.

The economy is in the pits and retailers, car dealers and almost everyone else is offering big discounts. Why? Because people are hanging on to their $$. They aren't spending.

The same is true in the timeshare industry. People aren't opening their wallets to buy. Even Marriott is offering some selected discount prices - virtually unheard of!

Thus, those who need to sell their timeshares are forced to accept much lower prices than ever before.

So it might well be a good buying opportunity for those who want Marriott timeshare vacations without having to shell out mega-thousand $$$.

Will Marriott resale prices go up? Time will tell. The economy will improve and will eventually be robust again. People will open up their wallets and buy timeshares. At what price? I don't know. But I believe those who guess prices will go back up - at least to some extent - could just as easily be right as you.

 

[ondeadlin]

Dave, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think it's irresponsible right now to be painting this as a buying opportunity precisely because the situation is so unstable.

Will prices come back? Maybe. We agree on that. I'm not painting myself as an oracle and telling people to buy or not to buy.

Pretty much says it all, doesn't it, when the best you can say is maybe? And every historical indicator says no? (Again, find me examples of resorts where prices have slumped and then jumped - not come back a little, but jumped - I've never seen it).

I guess what I'm saying is buy to use? Because you love it and can get value out of it? Sure. But do it knowing your investment is just as likely (or more likely) to lose money as gain money. It's not an investment, no matter what price you get it for.

 

[ecwinch]

Do you mean as a investment

Dave M - is the initial post is in regard to buying Marriott units as an investment? i.e. buying them now and then flipping them in a year or two for profit.

vs. those of us who want to own another week, and see this drop in prices as a tremendous opportunity to pickup an extra week due to the depressed pricing.

For instance, I just bought a Worldmark points membership at about 30 cents a point. Similar amount of points would have cost 60 cents a point six-eight months ago.

 

[ondeadlin]

I'm thinking of adding a few worldmark points myself to get max value out of the MF system they use.

 

[Dave M]

But do it knowing your investment is just as likely (or more likely) to lose money as gain money. It's not an investment, no matter what price you get it for.

Agreed - 100%

 

[BocaBum99]

There are multiple threads on TUG right now where a minority of people - including some who make money selling timeshares! what a surprise - are putting forward the idea that the current decline (collapse?) in timeshare prices is a buying opportunity.

That you can benefit when Marriott prices "come back", and they'll have to come back because of what Marriott charges as a developer.

Here's the reality: A. We don't know if this is anywhere close to the bottom; and B. There is no guarantee prices will ever come back, and past history suggests they won't; C. Fees could significantly jump because of delinquencies.

Just because the developer charges high prices does not mean prices will come back. Want proof? Look at the developer prices for resales in Orlando before this collapse and compare those prices to resales in Orlando. There's a gap of as much as $20,000 for some weeks at the sold out resorts. Ditto for ski weeks in Vail and Breckenridge.

Why the gap? I don't know why. Because they're older properties? Because they're not marketed aggressively? Who knows, but the gap exists.

I've been timesharing for almost 10 years now. I've never seen prices rise after they fell. I think it's irresponsible to suggest they will now, especially when so many people come here to get educated about timesharing and see purchase advice.

I am assuming you are directing this message at me. I make money buying and selling timeshares. I just want to get that out on the table before we get too far into this conversation. In addition, for the mid to long term posters here, most know me primarily as a timeshare owner and user than anything else since that is how I started in timesharing and that is always how I position myself and my expertise on these message boards.

As an owner, a user, an exchanger and an industry expert, I have very good insight into the state of the industry. I can tell you definitely that my expert point of view is that it is a very good time to purchase high end timeshares. And, I have never bought or sold any of those timeshares for profit. I own a few Mariott's myself for my personal use. But, I have NEVER sold one, EVER.

I started a thread on the topic of believing it is a very good time to purchase such high end Platinum Marriott timeshares because the ROFR has been suspended. Timeshare developers have been able to make lots of money selling timeshares for over 40 years using about the same method they do today. Once the credit crunch is over. And, it will end. They will resume what they have always been doing since it is such a highly profitable business for them.

There is is a chance that I am wrong and the entire timeshare market collapses and all the timeshare developers go out of business. But, I highly doubt that scenario.

If it does come back, then those who follow my recommendations will make out pretty well. The Marriott's that I own are bronze weeks that I use during flexchange. I have not recommended platinum weeks for any purpose until now.

So, you are entitled to your opinion. And, I am entitled to mine. The biggest difference between you and me is that I bet on my instincts about this industry and I have been right far more than I have been wrong. And, hundreds of posters on this message board know it.

 

[ondeadlin]

No, Boca, the biggest difference is it's in your financial interest to keep people buying timeshares.

 

[Dave M]

I don't believe that's a fair characterization of Boca's remarks or his motives in making those remarks.

He might be wrong, but his experience does speak for itself.

And he's right, once the economy rebounds, Marriott will start exercising ROFR again, which should make some of these low prices only a memory.

 

[BocaBum99]

Dave, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think it's irresponsible right now to be painting this as a buying opportunity precisely because the situation is so unstable.

I completely disagree with you that it is irresponsible to paint this as a buying opportunity. It is indeed a buying opportunity for platinum weeks at prices that owners can get now as long as the owners are presented with the continued risks and full picture.

I feel it is just as irresponsible to paint this as NOT a good time to buy when indeed it could be. And, I believe it is. It just depends on what price you can get the unit.

For instance, let's say that a specific 2br Marriott Platinum week has consistently been bought back via ROFR by Marriott for over $10,000.

Let's further say that a buyer finds a fire sale for that week at $2000 which is below the underlying real estate value of the property. Moreover, let's assume that a summer week at that resort rents reliable for over $1500 in good times and even now rents for over the maintenance fees. Add in the fact, that that unit can be split and used to exchange with trading power and I would say that many experts in this timeshare industry would bet that as long as the timeshare market doesn't collapse, that is a good deal. You have to have experience selling timeshares to know your odds of selling it later. And, your maximum risk is $2000 if you just give it away.

So, there are so many options for making that timeshare work, as long as you believe timesharing will survive, then it is not only responsible to point this out. It is actually extremely good advice.

I'd like for any timeshare expert on this board with full knowledge of the timeshare industry to challenge my logic.

Moreover, if the timeshare market resumes and Marriott starts exercising ROFR, there is a huge upside opportunity.

Please, I'd like for you to challenge my logic.

 

[ondeadlin]

Dave,

Honestly, I think Boca's first post is a violation of the TOS. He came on the thread and made it personal - i.e. "the biggest difference between you and me" I never mentioned him in my first post - and, for the record, think he's hardly alone in promoting timeshare sales here for personal gain.

And, yes, I believe any timeshare salesman who is posting right now that it's a buying opportunity has a personal motivation to get that message out.

Note how, again, I managed to state my opinion without making it personal.

 

[Potential Buyer Scott]

Bad investment for money, good investment for quality of life

If you are buying a time share now with the primary objective of flipping it for a profit when the economy turns around, that is a very bad plan.

However, if you are using the large price declines to use, buying a lifetime of family vacations at a place you couldn't previously afford, then I think it is a great idea. (Be sure to think about all costs when you do this, however, such as airfare to Hawaii).

Potential Buyer Scott CFA, MBA, CPA

 

[BocaBum99]

No, Boca, the biggest difference is it's in your financial interest to keep people buying timeshares.

I have no financial interest in Marriott timeshares other than the units I own to use and exchange for personal use. I have a financial interest in Bluegreen timeshares. I made no statements on whether or not it makes sense to buy or sell a Bluegreen timeshare on this thread or any others on this message board. I simply answer questions about how it works. Your are entitled to your opinions about the industry and about me. We wil let the other readers on this thread judge who has the superior perspective. I'd be willing to wager more people would vote for me than you despite any real or perceived conflict of interest.

 

[ondeadlin]

I completely disagree with you that it is irresponsible to paint this as a buying opportunity.

Of course you do, Boca, the current market is undoubtedly very bad for business.

You can throw up paragraph after paragraph of justifications, but the fact is there's no past history of timeshare prices rising markedly after they fall markedly. None. When prices go down, they tend to stay down, or perhaps rise a little in situations where an special accessment is completed.

As I said prior to your appearance on this thread, if you want a certain resort, and think it's a good price, that's great.

What's irresponsible is making people believe they will earn a "return" on their timeshare "investment" if they buy now:

My guess is that you pick them up for $.50 on the dollar or less. When Marriott starts exercising again, you will earn a superior return.

 

[BocaBum99]

If you are buying a time share now with the primary objective of flipping it for a profit when the economy turns around, that is a very bad plan.

However, if you are using the large price declines to use, buying a lifetime of family vacations at a place you couldn't previously afford, then I think it is a great idea. (Be sure to think about all costs when you do this, however, such as airfare to Hawaii).

Potential Buyer Scott CFA, MBA, CPA

Many people on this message board buy and flip timeshares. It always makes sense to do that if you have access to a market you feel confident you can sell it for a profit. You can do this even as the market declines as long as you buy at the right price.

I agree that I don't recommend that everyone does this. But, there are enough people doing it where it makes sense.

What I am also saying is that those who do buy "may" have an added upside benefit that they didn't anticipate. You can either do that as a business or as a safe bet for purchasing.

 

[ondeadlin]

Now it's "may" instead of "will" earn a superior return.

Well, at least that's something.

 

[BocaBum99]

Of course you do, Boca, the current market is undoubtedly very bad for business.

You can throw up paragraph after paragraph of justifications, but the fact is there's no past history of timeshare prices rising markedly after they fall markedly. None. When prices go down, they tend to stay down, or perhaps rise a little in situations where an special accessment is completed.

As I said prior to your appearance on this thread, if you want a certain resort, and think it's a good price, that's great.

What's irresponsible is making people believe they will earn a "return" on their timeshare "investment" if they buy now:

What about HGVC timeshares when they started exercising ROFR. That is the example that I am using.

By the way, I have nothing against you. Your opinion is a valid one. All I am saying is that my opinion is also valid. And, I take offense at you discrediting my expert opinion because you think I am doing it to somehow ensure that people continue to buy timeshares and perhaps from me. That is just wrong. And even Dave M agrees with that point of view.

 

[AwayWeGo]

Why I Don't View The Depressed Timeshare Market As A Buying Opportunity.

I'm already fixed for life on timeshares.

Otherwise, I might be well looking to snap up some bargains on the current depressed market.

Obviously, I buy'm to use'm rather than to flip'm -- not that there's anything wrong with flipping timeshares.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virignia, USA.​

 

[BocaBum99]

Now it's "may" instead of "will" earn a superior return.

Well, at least that's something.

I never say that anything is guaranteed. That would be foolish. People are always making calcuated risks. I absolutely believe that this is a very good time to purchase high end timeshares if you make the right purchase decision using the logic I've laid out in this and other threads.

Why don't you stop challenging my motive and start addressing my logic.

 

[ondeadlin]

Boca, seriously, how come when I disagree with your opinion, it's something you're entitled to take offense to? But when you disagree with my opinion, I'm not?

I mean, jeez, it's a message board.

I disagree with your opinion. I think you have an obvious bias in this discussion. I think it's completely irresponsible to tell people they "will earn a superior return" if they're smart enough to buy the right timeshare now, given the current economic conditions.

But you came here. I never mentioned you by name. And then you point out you "have nothing against me"? I mean, seriously, I never thought you did, we just disagree very strongly on this point.

Edited to add: You and I obviously view the words "will earn a superior return" very differently if you insist you never say anything is guaranteed. That sounds as close as you can come to guaranteed without using the word guaranteed. I don't address your logic because it's a bit like when someone who believes in supply side economics asks me to address their logic - my answer would be that there's no real logic there, it's just opinion dressed up as logic. And since our positions are clear, I really don't want to fight with you over opinions much more.

I think you've made a good suggestion about letting the readers judge. We disagree on how that one will come out as well.

 

[BocaBum99]

Of course you do, Boca, the current market is undoubtedly very bad for business.

You can throw up paragraph after paragraph of justifications, but the fact is there's no past history of timeshare prices rising markedly after they fall markedly. None. When prices go down, they tend to stay down, or perhaps rise a little in situations where an special accessment is completed.

As I said prior to your appearance on this thread, if you want a certain resort, and think it's a good price, that's great.

What's irresponsible is making people believe they will earn a "return" on their timeshare "investment" if they buy now:

I have sold timeshares to hundreds of timeshare buyers. I challenge you to find ONE owner where I told them they will earn a "return" on their timeshare "investment". I don't do that and I didn't do it here. What I did is make a statement about a potential scenario in the industry that could work for owners. I said my "GUESS" is that this will happen. A guess isn't a declaration of certainty. Can't you see that?